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I happened to come across a copy of the famous book by Simon Sim - The Joseph Cycle (2004 edition) while browsing through the Singapore section of the national library. Much to my surprise, there are a lot of gems and treasures hidden among the Singapore section, which I had always avoided till yesterday. There are old copies of company annual reports, industry and market analysis, accounting standards in Singapore, local tax guide, local real estate reports and even those very old stock investment and company info for Singapore context. You should go and take a look one day.
Anyway, Joseph cycle is actually a cycle that Simon Sim discovered. It bares resemblance to the biblical character Joseph, who being a slave, was made to oversee the entire Egypt planning because he interpreted a dream by the ruling Pharaoh satisfactorily. The interpretation is that for 7 years, there will be abundance, followed by another 7 years of scarcity. Simon Sim discovered that the market works pretty much on the same basis too.
Starting on 1959 where Singapore achieved independence, he counted in cycles of 14 years, with 7 years of bull and 7 years of bear runs. 1959 is regarded as the bottom by him. Here's a quick run through the years:
1959 - Cycle's bottom
1966 - Cycle's top
1973 - bottom
1980 - top
1987 - bottom
1994 - top
2001 - bottom
2008 - top
2015 - bottom
2022 - top
Here's the graphical representation overlaid on the STI chart that I did on excel. I would say that he is more and less correct on the mega trend of STI based on his 7 years of lean and 7 years of fat years.
I found a website where it was mentioned that he invested $400,000 into the market when last mentioned at 2004, which he will sell in 2007/2008. He would have made a handsome profit if he really invested in STI around 1300 in 2001 and ride the bull trend around 2007/2008 at the peak STI level of 3900 thereabouts. That's roughly 300% increment or about 16-17% compounded annually. This means that his $400,000 could become $1,200,000 - no mean feat.
Now if he is right about the Joseph cycle, then 2015 will be the bottom of the cycle. There should be some unexpected news that will change the bear phase back into the bull phase. He mentioned that the first 1 to 2 years of the bull phase (i.e. from 2015 to 2022), it will be a very quiet though the best time to buy.
A few thoughts comes immediately to mind: Read more...[caption id="attachment_1331" align="alignright" width="240" caption="STI Jospeh Cycle"]
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I happened to come across a copy of the famous book by Simon Sim - The Joseph Cycle (2004 edition) while browsing through the Singapore section of the national library. Much to my surprise, there are a lot of gems and treasures hidden among the Singapore section, which I had always avoided till yesterday. There are old copies of company annual reports, industry and market analysis, accounting standards in Singapore, local tax guide, local real estate reports and even those very old stock investment and company info for Singapore context. You should go and take a look one day.
Anyway, Joseph cycle is actually a cycle that Simon Sim discovered. It bares resemblance to the biblical character Joseph, who being a slave, was made to oversee the entire Egypt planning because he interpreted a dream by the ruling Pharaoh satisfactorily. The interpretation is that for 7 years, there will be abundance, followed by another 7 years of scarcity. Simon Sim discovered that the market works pretty much on the same basis too.
Starting on 1959 where Singapore achieved independence, he counted in cycles of 14 years, with 7 years of bull and 7 years of bear runs. 1959 is regarded as the bottom by him. Here's a quick run through the years:
1959 - Cycle's bottom
1966 - Cycle's top
1973 - bottom
1980 - top
1987 - bottom
1994 - top
2001 - bottom
2008 - top
2015 - bottom
2022 - top
Here's the graphical representation overlaid on the STI chart that I did on excel. I would say that he is more and less correct on the mega trend of STI based on his 7 years of lean and 7 years of fat years.
I found a website where it was mentioned that he invested $400,000 into the market when last mentioned at 2004, which he will sell in 2007/2008. He would have made a handsome profit if he really invested in STI around 1300 in 2001 and ride the bull trend around 2007/2008 at the peak STI level of 3900 thereabouts. That's roughly 300% increment or about 16-17% compounded annually. This means that his $400,000 could become $1,200,000 - no mean feat.
Now if he is right about the Joseph cycle, then 2015 will be the bottom of the cycle. There should be some unexpected news that will change the bear phase back into the bull phase. He mentioned that the first 1 to 2 years of the bull phase (i.e. from 2015 to 2022), it will be a very quiet though the best time to buy.
A few thoughts comes immediately to mind: Read more...
[/caption]
I happened to come across a copy of the famous book by Simon Sim - The Joseph Cycle (2004 edition) while browsing through the Singapore section of the national library. Much to my surprise, there are a lot of gems and treasures hidden among the Singapore section, which I had always avoided till yesterday. There are old copies of company annual reports, industry and market analysis, accounting standards in Singapore, local tax guide, local real estate reports and even those very old stock investment and company info for Singapore context. You should go and take a look one day.
Anyway, Joseph cycle is actually a cycle that Simon Sim discovered. It bares resemblance to the biblical character Joseph, who being a slave, was made to oversee the entire Egypt planning because he interpreted a dream by the ruling Pharaoh satisfactorily. The interpretation is that for 7 years, there will be abundance, followed by another 7 years of scarcity. Simon Sim discovered that the market works pretty much on the same basis too.
Starting on 1959 where Singapore achieved independence, he counted in cycles of 14 years, with 7 years of bull and 7 years of bear runs. 1959 is regarded as the bottom by him. Here's a quick run through the years:
1959 - Cycle's bottom
1966 - Cycle's top
1973 - bottom
1980 - top
1987 - bottom
1994 - top
2001 - bottom
2008 - top
2015 - bottom
2022 - top
Here's the graphical representation overlaid on the STI chart that I did on excel. I would say that he is more and less correct on the mega trend of STI based on his 7 years of lean and 7 years of fat years.
I found a website where it was mentioned that he invested $400,000 into the market when last mentioned at 2004, which he will sell in 2007/2008. He would have made a handsome profit if he really invested in STI around 1300 in 2001 and ride the bull trend around 2007/2008 at the peak STI level of 3900 thereabouts. That's roughly 300% increment or about 16-17% compounded annually. This means that his $400,000 could become $1,200,000 - no mean feat.
Now if he is right about the Joseph cycle, then 2015 will be the bottom of the cycle. There should be some unexpected news that will change the bear phase back into the bull phase. He mentioned that the first 1 to 2 years of the bull phase (i.e. from 2015 to 2022), it will be a very quiet though the best time to buy.
A few thoughts comes immediately to mind: Read more...
