[caption id="attachment_1430" align="alignright" width="170" caption="Photo by jenny downing"][/caption] Before I start writing this post, I was reading some articles and comments on the year ahead. Usually, at the beginning of each year, investor would do some reflection and try to position the portfolio for the coming year. The consensus now seems to be the earliest recovery would be on second half of 2009. Would it recover by 2009? This is a really big question. Just like we don't know the danger ahead until we encountered one. Similarly, we are not so sure whether the recovery would happen this year. However, looking at the economic numbers and analysts comment. The sentiment or real picture is actually quite bad. One fund manager mentioned he mentioned seen a bad cycle like this. I guess we can take cue from this. The earliest time the economy would start to recover seems to be 3Q onwards. However, I am not so optimistic. Just like they mentioned, the problem is quite serious. It would take sometime for the de-leveraging to flow through the economy. This year most likely would be a lost year again. The real recovery would most likely happen in 2010 instead. Year 2009 should be a year of consolidation. Volatility ahead Should investor stay sidelined? It depends on your strategy. Many believe we could still have bear rally. Read more...