Market Review and Trends
What will the year of the Earth Ox bring?
By Kevin Scully-Financial Blog  •  January 30, 2009
[caption id="attachment_1661" align="alignright" width="190" caption="Photo by ANNAHAPE GALLERY"]Photo by ANNAHAPE GALLERY[/caption] I checked out some Feng Shui predictions and find they are as many and as varied as stock market analysts....but... Let me start by wishing everyone and their families a Blessed and Prosperous Lunar New Year. An old Boss reminded me not to wish anyone a Happy Lunar New Year as things were bad and many people were nervous about their jobs. I detected a more subdued mood this festive season as well when we went for our reunion dinner early on Saturday to avoid the crowd. The restaurant Pioneer Spring at Safra Mount Faber only to find the restaurant half full. I also noticed when I drove past several florists that they still had many plants for sale even up to the eve of the New Year. You all know my views on the stock market and with the spate of corporate retrenchments being announced over the last week - we can only sense that things are getting worse. The main conversation topic over the New Year was job security with some family members mentioning that they were being asked to work a four day week for the next few months. Others were worried about servicing their debts while there was a younger group (less than 40 years old) who seemed to feel that everything was okay and the Government wouldnt allow things to get much worse. Let me say that there are as many Feng Shui commentaries on the outlook for the stock market in the Year of the Earth Ox as there are analysts views on the market and covering almost all possible outcomes. One Group says it will be a difficult year and Ox years generally have a lot of problems. They cite the 1973 Oil crisis, the economic slowdown in 1985 and the Asian Financial crisis as examples of terrible Ox years. Another Feng Shui master was more precise - he said that the last Earth Ox year was in 1949 - the year NATO was founded and was also the year the People's Republic of China was formed. He claims that this Earth Year (2009) will be the calmest since 2000 but warns in the same breath says that stock markets will be tough and may rise in the first half of 2009 but gains could be lost in the second half - a better year to BUY stocks would be just ahead of the Year of the Tiger. Daiwa Research says that Ox years have been bad for the Japanese stock markets which have fallen by 11-12% in the past five Ox years. Another Feng Shui master says stock markets will be calmer in 2009 but we will have more disease and natural disasters that year - (landslides, floods and earthquakes). I think I prefer volatile stock markets to more natural disasters anytime. Let me end this New Year commentary with excerpts from a conversation with the CEO of listed electronics company in Singapore. After sharing with him my negatives views and doomsday scenarios, he shared with me that he has laid off about 30-40% of his staff, has cut senior executive pay and still would only breakeven in the best case scenario. He said I should have HOPE that things will get better and not be so negative. I said that for me to see the bottom and have HOPE that things will get better - I must see the light at the end of the tunnel. I said I cant see it yet....meaning I cant see the bottom because there is more negative news everyday. He also agreed that he could not see the light.....I am however hoping to see a glimmer of a light at the end of Q2-2009 and maybe a brighter light by the end of 2009. So maybe the Fong Shui masters are right m, ie that 2010 the year of the Tiger will be a better year for stocks. Source: NRA Capital - Kevin’s Blog
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By Kevin Scully-Financial Blog
Kevin began his working life in the regional and economics division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He then moved to the private sector analyzing equities before venturing out to start NRA Capital. After 25 years of watching stocks and living through financial disarray during the Pan Electric Crisis, the 1987 Crash, the Barings debacle, the Gulf War, Asian financial crisis - what can sub-prime do but add another scar to already bruised wounds. Ever since starting his blog, Kevin has been enthusiastically giving his personal views on the market. He discusses about equities, the market turmoil, and the broad economy.
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