[caption id="attachment_2008" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Photo by PSD"][/caption] ... or is it the case of one upmanship? Can we trust the positive CEO comments of US banks which sparked the rally two days ago ??!!. It all started in February 2009 when Bank of America Corp.'s Kenneth Lewis told employees in a memo in February 2009 that January results were "encouraging" as fixed-income markets recovered. I guess the words encouraging were not strong enough and so a few days ago when CitiGroup CEO Vikram used even stronger language in his memo to staff - "best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007." Yesterday JP Morgan followed up with his own comments. "We just had the two most active bond months we ever had," said JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chairman and Chief Executive Jamie Dimon. The company was profitable in January and February, he later said. I guess the guy that started this big bear bank rally was Vikram of Citibank and i append here his actual memo to the staff:

Dear Citi Colleagues, After a broad sell off in the markets last week, I thought I would give you a quick update on our position. Despite the steps we've taken to strengthen our capital base, I am, like you, disappointed with our current stock price and the broad-based misperceptions about our company and its financial position. I don't believe it reflects the strengths of Citi; our newly strengthened capital base, our unique global franchise and most importantly, the quality of our people. These are unprecedented times in the markets, but over time, the markets will recognize the many strengths of Citi. I believe there are two key issues to focus on -- capital strength and earnings power. First, on capital strength, as you know, the preferred exchange we announced nearly two weeks ago is expected to make Citi the strongest capitalized large U.S. bank as measured by tangible common equity (TCE) and Tier 1 ratios. While our Tier 1 ratio will remain at 11.9% as of December 31, 2008, assuming 100% participation in the exchange, our TCE could increase to as much as $81 billion. Despite this addition of tangible common equity, some people continue to question our capital strength because of our net deferred tax asset (DTA) and the quality of our assets. -- DTA: Even if near-term conditions deteriorate significantly, we expect to be able to realize the majority of our DTAs. -- Asset quality: The Fed will conduct stress tests for all large banks in coming weeks. We've done our own stress testing using assumptions that are more pessimistic than the Fed has outlined and we are confident about our capital strength. -- In addition, the Smith Barney joint venture and the conversion of mandatory convertibles is expected to add another $14 billion to our tangible common equity over time. In addition to our strong capital position, I am most encouraged with the strength of our business so far in 2009. In fact, we are profitable through the first two months of 2009 and are having our best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007. In January and February alone, our revenues excluding externally disclosed marks were $19 billion. Our client businesses are strong: our deposits are relatively stable, our client-driven Securities and Banking businesses have been performing well, including our recent #1 rank in M&A, and we continue to provide credit to consumer and corporate customers. You have all done a very impressive job driving revenues and reducing our cost structure, and it is gratifying to see the results first hand. I also appreciate how distracting the confusion in the markets and the media can be. In case you missed it, you should read the article in Friday's Wall Street Journal Deal Journal entitled "Citi Woes Don't Distract Its Investment Bankers" It was great to see you get the recognition you deserve and how you have remained focused on your clients and customers. Lastly, I spent time last week talking to groups of colleagues and clients in Europe. It was good to hear from them. Not only did I learn a lot about what was on their minds, I was able to give them the full story of Citi and where we are today, including our full commitment to our global network and presence in over 100 countries, which is our key competitive differentiator. I would encourage each of you to continually engage with your colleagues and clients to ensure open lines of communication. To help in this effort, I have attached some important information points as an aid in your discussions. Please send me any feedback you may receive or any questions you are not able to answer. Thank you again for your dedication. These are the times that will define us all. Best regards, Vikram

I am still skeptical about these comments because they are internal memos not official filings or profit guidance by the banks to their shareholders and the market place. So are they less accountable if an internal memo happens to get out to the press ? I am also of the view that any profitability is before provisions, the marking to market of toxic assets, NPLs etc. Let me put in perspective my reasons for being cautious. Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University, estimates that total the level of provisions needed to be made by banks globally is US$3.6 trillion. Of this about half is from the US banks, ie US$1.8bn - the current level of provisions announced so far is about one third ot this.....so still a lot of cleaning up to do..... My conclusion is that the Bank of America first comment was fair in the use of the word "encouraging" - but nothing happened. Vikram raised the ante and this was followed by JP Morgan. Let's wait for the actual Q1-2009 results to see what these comments were all about in terms of the extent that they actually reflected the health of the individual banks. Bear in mind that the weight of the decline in the global economy and the current low level of provisions viz what we believe to be the size of toxic assets of banks are makes me skeptical that the worse is over. The US banks dont have enough balance sheet now to take more large provisions - so unless they stop providing - its hard to believe that the worst is over for US banks. Source: NRA Capital - Kevin’s Blog