Posted on April 1, 2009 - by musicwhiz

March 2009 Portfolio Summary and Review

Musicwhiz portfolio Mar 31 2009

March 2009 can be said to be an “eventful” month, if you count the number of things happening with the White House and President Obama, as well as Treasury Secretary Geithner. Suffice to say I will NOT summarize all the moves and decisions they had made so far this month, for it would take up more than this post could hold and bore everyone to tears. Just surf on to New York Times or CNBC and they will give you the low down details. Basically, there were bailouts, plans for capital injections and stress-testing for banks, if it could be summarized in so few words. The world is of course awaiting with bated breath on when the US Economy and Banks will recover, but it’s a new world order now, and some of the old practices (e.g. huge bonuses at AIG and ML) may have to be totally revamped, at the risk of more public ire. Over the last 2 days, President Obama has also rejected the re-structuring plans for General Motors and Chrysler, forcing out the CEO of GM and asking Chrysler to merge with Fiat in order to survive. A forced bankruptcy looks likely on the cards unless the two auto makers can get their act together.

This month can also be termed the “Recovery Month” as news of an impending economic bottoming and subsequent recovery seems to fill the headlines closer to end-March 2009. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen, and as economists will probably tell you, it can only be obvious on hindsight. An investor’s job is not to predict the state of the economy or when things will get better; all he has to do is select good companies and stay vested in them.

Singapore seems to be doing relatively okay with most of the general public not really feeling the full effects of the recession (yet). Condominium property launches are still thronged with people, some armed with cheque books according to a friend. Travel fairs are swamped and tours sold out in hours while the recent computer fair at Expo Singapore saw a record turnout and an even better sales figure than 2008 ! So in spite of the deepening recession, it seems Singaporeans still retain their good old consumerism culture. It remains to be seen if the coming months will see a drop in retail spending and a move towards more conservative spending and cutting down on discretionary purchases.

The Singapore stock market has managed to rally 19% within 3 weeks after news of the supposed “recovery”, with some prominent analysts declaring that 1Q 2009 will be the worst quarter, so the market can only get better over time. My job is to just take the news as it comes because things are so uncertain that it would be foolish to hazard a guess as to when the crisis will really and truly blow over and businesses can start recovering. Notwithstanding, there are still companies out there running a decent business with decent margins and they will still continue to pay dividends (albeit lower ones). So it is still possible to stay fully vested, feel cosy and comfortable and continue to monitor corporate and economic developments as they unfold. Read more…

Related posts:

1. June 2009 Portfolio Summary and Review
2. December 2009 and FY 2009 Portfolio Summary and Review
3. November 2009 Portfolio Summary and Review