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The fall in the US markets overnight was expected given the bearish comments from established US banking analysts and also negative comments on the US economy by George Soros. There was also market nervousness about the Q1-2009 earnings reporting season – which could disppoint. The first major Dow component to disappoint is Alcoa which reported a bigger than expected loss in Q1-2009 and with it a reduction in dividends and retrenchments. The markets were also nervous about weakness in demand from the private sector to participate in the “bad” bank which was supposed to buy out the toxic assets. By the close the Dow had shed 186 and the Nasdaq 45 to 7789 and 1561 respectively.

The Big question is whether this signals the end of the “bear” rally after six weeks – very similar to the “bear” rally from 22 Nov 2008 to 6 Jan 2009 or is this just a consolidation from recent gains. I am of the view that its the former….as the macro economic data in the US and in the Global economy continues to deteriorate. But the truth is that nobody knows. Read more…