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Since the last week of June, the stock market has whipsawed in a tight range. Gone is the hot-headed exuberance but neither has a drastic correction materialize. Some bulls are still holding the fort amid a thin market volume, but deciphering market sentiment is difficult as false signals can be easily generated by a few market participants.
Not surprisingly, a cautious mood has descended on investors as they await the next major move in the stock market. During this lacklustre period (a good excuse for not updating this blog), what gives for July? For one thing, there is the hugely anticipated second quarter earnings reports which will either lend credence to green shoots theory or spark a fresh round of selling as optimism is shown to have overtaken reality by a mile.
Most Asian stocks fell over the week. Hongkong has a turbulent session as financial and property stocks declined but it clawed its way back to end a 3 day losing streak. Japan, the world’s second largest economy by GDP, is a really sad story as its “lost decade” is now well into its 19th year. To add to its woes, it suffered its first trade deficit in 28 years.
This is expected since Japan cannot export what the world won’t buy (especially America) and an appreciating yen doesn’t help its exports. Domestic consumption is also fragile, with its aging population, low birth rates and a struggling workforce. Currently, manufacturing sentiment is on the mend but still fared worse than expected. In fact, Japan’s manufacturers plan to trim capital expenditures by a record 24.3% for this fiscal year, exceeding estimates of 13.2%.
I don’t harbor hopes of Japan leading the world out of this Great Recession. If it can get its house in order, and not be the first to declare a Depression, it is already an achievement. On the other hand, China has the potential to eclipse Japan as Asia’s economic powerhouse in the next decade. The Shanghai Composite Index is on a roll, finishing up at a 13-month high. Read more...[caption id="attachment_2897" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Photo by filtran"][/caption]
Since the last week of June, the stock market has whipsawed in a tight range. Gone is the hot-headed exuberance but neither has a drastic correction materialize. Some bulls are still holding the fort amid a thin market volume, but deciphering market sentiment is difficult as false signals can be easily generated by a few market participants.
Not surprisingly, a cautious mood has descended on investors as they await the next major move in the stock market. During this lacklustre period (a good excuse for not updating this blog), what gives for July? For one thing, there is the hugely anticipated second quarter earnings reports which will either lend credence to green shoots theory or spark a fresh round of selling as optimism is shown to have overtaken reality by a mile.
Most Asian stocks fell over the week. Hongkong has a turbulent session as financial and property stocks declined but it clawed its way back to end a 3 day losing streak. Japan, the world’s second largest economy by GDP, is a really sad story as its “lost decade” is now well into its 19th year. To add to its woes, it suffered its first trade deficit in 28 years.
This is expected since Japan cannot export what the world won’t buy (especially America) and an appreciating yen doesn’t help its exports. Domestic consumption is also fragile, with its aging population, low birth rates and a struggling workforce. Currently, manufacturing sentiment is on the mend but still fared worse than expected. In fact, Japan’s manufacturers plan to trim capital expenditures by a record 24.3% for this fiscal year, exceeding estimates of 13.2%.
I don’t harbor hopes of Japan leading the world out of this Great Recession. If it can get its house in order, and not be the first to declare a Depression, it is already an achievement. On the other hand, China has the potential to eclipse Japan as Asia’s economic powerhouse in the next decade. The Shanghai Composite Index is on a roll, finishing up at a 13-month high. Read more...
[/caption]
Since the last week of June, the stock market has whipsawed in a tight range. Gone is the hot-headed exuberance but neither has a drastic correction materialize. Some bulls are still holding the fort amid a thin market volume, but deciphering market sentiment is difficult as false signals can be easily generated by a few market participants.
Not surprisingly, a cautious mood has descended on investors as they await the next major move in the stock market. During this lacklustre period (a good excuse for not updating this blog), what gives for July? For one thing, there is the hugely anticipated second quarter earnings reports which will either lend credence to green shoots theory or spark a fresh round of selling as optimism is shown to have overtaken reality by a mile.
Most Asian stocks fell over the week. Hongkong has a turbulent session as financial and property stocks declined but it clawed its way back to end a 3 day losing streak. Japan, the world’s second largest economy by GDP, is a really sad story as its “lost decade” is now well into its 19th year. To add to its woes, it suffered its first trade deficit in 28 years.
This is expected since Japan cannot export what the world won’t buy (especially America) and an appreciating yen doesn’t help its exports. Domestic consumption is also fragile, with its aging population, low birth rates and a struggling workforce. Currently, manufacturing sentiment is on the mend but still fared worse than expected. In fact, Japan’s manufacturers plan to trim capital expenditures by a record 24.3% for this fiscal year, exceeding estimates of 13.2%.
I don’t harbor hopes of Japan leading the world out of this Great Recession. If it can get its house in order, and not be the first to declare a Depression, it is already an achievement. On the other hand, China has the potential to eclipse Japan as Asia’s economic powerhouse in the next decade. The Shanghai Composite Index is on a roll, finishing up at a 13-month high. Read more...
