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6/6 Hindsight
Comment and analysis articles started popping up everywhere after Dubai World requested creditors to delay debt repayments for 6 months. Articles explaining how the collapsed of these property castles built on shaky grounds of leverage was just a matter of time and listed so many warning signs that any idiot could predict this crisis with ease. This kind of postdated prediction also occured after the subprime crisis erupted in the United States.
While it is true that genuine warning signs were indeed present and if people took heed, many of such crises could have been avoided. But in this era of information barrage, where one has to sieve real information from fake, good from bad and useful from useless, spotting a few true red flags from countless fake cry wolves are always a challenge.
0/6 Foresight
Future cannot be predicted but with adequate preparations and precautions, adverse consequences could be mitigated or potential opportunities exploited. That's precisely the reason why I neither believe nor made sense of technical analysis. Looking back, any bottom or peak looked so obvious, but looking forward, how many times had a double-top resulted in even higher 'top' when the forward 'obvious' would have been a sell down or profit taking? But understanding and appreciating economic cycles would give one a much better 'foresight' as all good things must come to an end one day or fine weather will one day re-emerge after a terrible storm. Read more...
[caption id="attachment_3951" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Photo by Look Into My Eyes"][/caption]
6/6 Hindsight
Comment and analysis articles started popping up everywhere after Dubai World requested creditors to delay debt repayments for 6 months. Articles explaining how the collapsed of these property castles built on shaky grounds of leverage was just a matter of time and listed so many warning signs that any idiot could predict this crisis with ease. This kind of postdated prediction also occured after the subprime crisis erupted in the United States.
While it is true that genuine warning signs were indeed present and if people took heed, many of such crises could have been avoided. But in this era of information barrage, where one has to sieve real information from fake, good from bad and useful from useless, spotting a few true red flags from countless fake cry wolves are always a challenge.
0/6 Foresight
Future cannot be predicted but with adequate preparations and precautions, adverse consequences could be mitigated or potential opportunities exploited. That's precisely the reason why I neither believe nor made sense of technical analysis. Looking back, any bottom or peak looked so obvious, but looking forward, how many times had a double-top resulted in even higher 'top' when the forward 'obvious' would have been a sell down or profit taking? But understanding and appreciating economic cycles would give one a much better 'foresight' as all good things must come to an end one day or fine weather will one day re-emerge after a terrible storm. Read more...
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6/6 Hindsight
Comment and analysis articles started popping up everywhere after Dubai World requested creditors to delay debt repayments for 6 months. Articles explaining how the collapsed of these property castles built on shaky grounds of leverage was just a matter of time and listed so many warning signs that any idiot could predict this crisis with ease. This kind of postdated prediction also occured after the subprime crisis erupted in the United States.
While it is true that genuine warning signs were indeed present and if people took heed, many of such crises could have been avoided. But in this era of information barrage, where one has to sieve real information from fake, good from bad and useful from useless, spotting a few true red flags from countless fake cry wolves are always a challenge.
0/6 Foresight
Future cannot be predicted but with adequate preparations and precautions, adverse consequences could be mitigated or potential opportunities exploited. That's precisely the reason why I neither believe nor made sense of technical analysis. Looking back, any bottom or peak looked so obvious, but looking forward, how many times had a double-top resulted in even higher 'top' when the forward 'obvious' would have been a sell down or profit taking? But understanding and appreciating economic cycles would give one a much better 'foresight' as all good things must come to an end one day or fine weather will one day re-emerge after a terrible storm. Read more...
