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In the book "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared about misleading perceptions.
He mentioned about the turkey problem. The turkey is fed every day, and each day it grows to expect food, lowering its guard against unforeseen risk. Suddenly, on thanksgiving, the same hand that feeds it abruptly ends everything for the turkey.
An another example he used is the treatment of cancer. The doctor does the diagnosis and concludes that there is no evidence of cancer. There is no way to check every single cell, so the test is done by sampling. However, all it takes is a single cancerous cell to be undetected for it to start spreading. A stronger conclusion would be to state that there is evidence of no cancer.
Statistics can be such a misleading tool. Not seeing a person commit murder for 99% of his life does not mean we can conclude that he is innocent. However, seeing him commit murder is definite evidence that his is guilty. Read more...[caption id="attachment_3770" align="alignright" width="150" caption="Photo by peasap"][/caption]
In the book "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared about misleading perceptions.
He mentioned about the turkey problem. The turkey is fed every day, and each day it grows to expect food, lowering its guard against unforeseen risk. Suddenly, on thanksgiving, the same hand that feeds it abruptly ends everything for the turkey.
An another example he used is the treatment of cancer. The doctor does the diagnosis and concludes that there is no evidence of cancer. There is no way to check every single cell, so the test is done by sampling. However, all it takes is a single cancerous cell to be undetected for it to start spreading. A stronger conclusion would be to state that there is evidence of no cancer.
Statistics can be such a misleading tool. Not seeing a person commit murder for 99% of his life does not mean we can conclude that he is innocent. However, seeing him commit murder is definite evidence that his is guilty. Read more...
[/caption]
In the book "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared about misleading perceptions.
He mentioned about the turkey problem. The turkey is fed every day, and each day it grows to expect food, lowering its guard against unforeseen risk. Suddenly, on thanksgiving, the same hand that feeds it abruptly ends everything for the turkey.
An another example he used is the treatment of cancer. The doctor does the diagnosis and concludes that there is no evidence of cancer. There is no way to check every single cell, so the test is done by sampling. However, all it takes is a single cancerous cell to be undetected for it to start spreading. A stronger conclusion would be to state that there is evidence of no cancer.
Statistics can be such a misleading tool. Not seeing a person commit murder for 99% of his life does not mean we can conclude that he is innocent. However, seeing him commit murder is definite evidence that his is guilty. Read more...
