long term market analysis attempts to identify the general trend  the market, whether bullish or bearish. stay vested when trend is bullish and trigger downside controls when trend is bearish

S&P 500

Every one is watching the 1340 level on the S&P500. Violation of it will invalidate the reverse heads and shoulders breakout. Breaking out will continue the upward trend but invalidate it will not be a death sentence. We are still well above the 200 EMA. A death cross at 200,50 and 20 EMA at 1180 will be about a 10% drawdown from current levels. A 10% drawdown on the index looks tolerable, but most investors owns individual stocks and likely the drawdown will be larger. By the time the death cross happens it is likely the draw down is 22%.

STI

I like the look of the STI much better than that of S&P500. We are in ......