Today, for the first time ever, I became a shareholder of Noble Group. I will confess that I do not understand the business and that going long here is taking on quite a bit of risk. Then, why did I do it? Let me share with you what’s on my mind.

The share price of Noble Group is, undoubtedly, in a downtrend. I drew two trendlines, one connecting the lower highs and one connecting the lower lows. A down channel becomes quite clear. I see the channel support at $1.78 and that explains why I put in a buy order at that price, which was filled in the late afternoon today.

That a big black candle formed on the back of heavy volume is very ominous and it would not surprise me if the share price were to sink even lower next week. So, why take the risk of going long …