Posted by July 23, 2011
on Some folks over at http://valuebuddies.com/ have been asking about a CAPE ratio, famously shilled by Shiller. Well, here it is.
The current CAPE stands at about a 16.8 versus a historical average of 18.8.
PE10 methodology comes from here. Price and earnings data come from my data set located at the bottom widget of this page. Inflation data from singstat.
Now let me school you
So the current CAPE is 2 points under its historical average!! Buy buy buy!!
Why this is a stupid thing to do:
- Notice the chart starts from 2003. This is because STI earnings data is only available from 1993 onwards. Also this means that the “historical average” is not really a historical average, its just the average over the past 8 years, about 3 of which was the peak of the bubble so yes ...