By Mr. Propwise
In an interesting and contrarian report, Dr. Chua Yang Liang of Jones Lang Lasalle argues that the surge in upcoming supply will not cause property prices to fall. In this article I will sum up his arguments and add some of my own thoughts.
Recently several property analysts have been arguing that a correction in the Singapore residential market is in the pipeline in 2014/2015 due to the large stock of housing completions during that period (~50,000 public + private unit per year), which is 2.5 times the average completed since 2001.
Dr. Chua believes that residential property prices will not fall despite this large increase in supply for the following three reasons:
1. The Singapore residential market has not corrected based on supply alone in the last decade
Dr. Chua calculates two metrics he terms as the short-term and long-term balance of housing stock. ...
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