Drizzt: long term market analysis is a series once or twice a month where we take a look at longer term trends in the market to get our bearings right on the general direction of where market prices is going.

How are you guys doing on the investing front? Missed out on the January run up? Got a lot of profits? Europe problem is not solved yet? What should we be doing?

Weekly S&P500 and STI

The long term indicator we use is the cross over between the 17 week EMA and the 43 week EMA. A cut of the 17 week EMA below the 43 week EMA from above signifies an underweight and risk management position. A cut of the 17 week EMA above the 43 week EMA from below signifies an overweight position in equities.

The 17 week EMA and 43 week EMA are still not forming ...