- the launch price versus resale price of specific ECs project
- the price change per square foot (psf) of a specific unit from developer’s sale till resale
- the price change (psf) of a specific unit from resale till resale
Launch Price and Resale Price For Each Project
In Table 1, I present the median price per square foot ($ psf) at launch compared to resale for 40 EC developments. In addition, I compute the percentage change in the median price at launch compared to the resale price. Finally, I show the price range at launch and at resale.Table 1: Launch Price vs. Resale Price of ECs
Project Name | Location | Year of Completion | Privatised? | Median Price at Launch* ($ psf) | Median Resale** Price ($ psf) | % Change | Price Range at Launch ($ psf) | Resale Price Range ($ psf) |
Chestervale | Bukit Panjang | 1999 | Yes | 434 | 529 | 21.89 | 314-473 | 341-429 |
Eastvale | Pasir Ris | 1999 | Yes | 405 | 617 | 52.35 | 341-429 | 304-965 |
Pinevale | Tampines | 1999 | Yes | 459 | 586 | 27.67 | 330-529 | 288-964 |
Simei Green Condominium | Tampines | 1999 | Yes | 422 | 579 | 37.20 | 301-472 | 264-945 |
Westmere | Jurong East | 1999 | Yes | 397 | 382 | -3.78 | 370-443 | 292-935 |
Windermere | Choa Chu Kang | 1999 | Yes | 451 | 569.5 | 26.27 | 329-498 | 272-707 |
Northoaks | Woodlands | 2000 | Yes | 397 | 587 | 47.86 | 289-461 | 230-806 |
Summerdale | Jurong West | 2000 | Yes | 372 | 590 | 58.60 | 284-451 | 234-808 |
The Floravale | Jurong West | 2000 | Yes | 371 | 577 | 55.53 | 247-419 | 227-817 |
The Florida | Hougang | 2000 | Yes | 436 | 624.5 | 43.23 | 351-521 | 301-843 |
The Rivervale | Sengkang | 2000 | Yes | 449 | 638 | 42.09 | 287-556 | 278-829 |
Woodsvale | Woodlands | 2000 | Yes | 380 | 566 | 48.95 | 290-424 | 238-749 |
Yew Mei Green | Choa Chu Kang | 2000 | Yes | 429 | 589.5 | 37.41 | 308-844 | 280-787 |
Bishan Loft | Bishan | 2003 | No | 418.5 | 916.5 | 119.00 | 379-491 | 394-1174 |
Lilydale | Yishun | 2003 | Yes | 367.5 | 652.5 | 77.55 | 239-420 | 310-774 |
The Dew | Bukit Batok | 2003 | No | 387.5 | 726.5 | 87.48 | 288-430 | 309-937 |
The Eden At Tampines | Tampines | 2003 | Yes | 406 | 695 | 71.18 | 323-461 | 342-937 |
Nuovo | Ang Mo Kio | 2004 | No | 402 | 759.5 | 88.93 | 307-512 | 396-1054 |
Park Green | Sengkang | 2004 | No | 368 | 691 | 87.77 | 268-416 | 484-892 |
The Esparis | Pasir Ris | 2005 | No | 386 | 658 | 70.47 | 316-403 | 390-815 |
Whitewater | Pasir Ris | 2005 | No | 373 | 658 | 76.41 | 313-423 | 322-908 |
The Quintet | Choa Chu Kang | 2006 | No | 378 | 709 | 87.57 | 242-410 | 420-904 |
La Casa | Woodlands | 2008 | No | 393 | 778 | 97.96 | 340-534 | 458-906 |
1 Canberra | Yishun | Uncompleted | No | 715 | 550-804 | |||
Arc At Tampines | Tampines | Uncompleted | No | 737 | 554-875 | |||
Austville Residences | Sengkang | Uncompleted | No | 715 | 585-779 | |||
Belysa | Pasir Ris | Uncompleted | No | 696 | 496-780 | |||
Blossom Residences | Bukit Panjang | Uncompleted | No | 704 | 536-785 | |||
Citylife@Tampines | Tampines | Uncompleted | No | 811.5 | 499-925 | |||
Esparina Residences | Sengkang | Uncompleted | No | 762 | 503-864 | |||
Heron Bay | Hougang | Uncompleted | No | 740 | 612-809 | |||
Prive | Punggol | Uncompleted | No | 697 | 502-779 | |||
Riverparc Residence | Punggol | Uncompleted | No | 689 | 462-772 | |||
The Canopy | Yishun | Uncompleted | No | 657 | 530-738 | |||
The Rainforest | Choa Chu Kang | Uncompleted | No | 754.5 | 523-835 | |||
The Tampines Trilliant | Tampines | Uncompleted | No | 803 | 551-888 | |||
The Topiary | Sengkang | Uncompleted | No | 735 | 600-809 | |||
Twin Waterfalls | Punggol | Uncompleted | No | 725.5 | 496-817 | |||
Waterbay | Punggol | Uncompleted | No | 746 | 538-797 | |||
Watercolours | Pasir Ris | Uncompleted | No | 733.5 | 581-802 |
Launch Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit
Here, I track the same unit over time to see the change in price (psf) from the developer's sale to when it is resold. In Table 2, I present for each project the percentage of units which price (psf) at resale is less than its price at the developer's sale. 13 projects actually have over 10% of resale transactions concluded at a loss, but only 3 projects (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) have over 50% of capital-losing transactions. For Eastvale, due to the small sample size of 7, the results could be erroneous. The greatest capital-losing transaction is 44.4% for a unit at Chestervale. The honour of the greatest capital gain goes to Park Green where a unit was sold at 199.6% above its price (psf) at launch. Bishan Loft takes second place. For the lowest 25% (25th percentile) of price change units at 13 developments register capital losses. This negative number falls to 3 (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) at the 50th percentile. In fact 12 developments see over 50% of capital gain at this level. In short, many owners make capital gains when reselling their ECs after buying from the developers.Table 2: Change in Price (psf) (From Launch to Resale)
Project Name | Sample Size (No of Units) | % of Units Sold at a Loss | Lowest (%) | Highest (%) | 25th Percentile (%) | Median (%) |
Bishan Loft | 49 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 179.7 | 90.2 | 108.1 |
Chestervale | 101 | 34.7 | -44.4 | 82.0 | -26.7 | 21.6 |
Eastvale | 7 | 57.1 | -11.1 | 122.7 | -8.5 | -1.2 |
La Casa | 24 | 4.2 | 75.5 | 138.1 | 96.5 | 102.9 |
Lilydale | 102 | 2.0 | -16.2 | 122.9 | 64.4 | 77.4 |
Northoaks | 118 | 31.4 | -27.7 | 101.9 | -16.1 | 40.3 |
Nuovo | 103 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 148.7 | 74.4 | 89.7 |
Park Green | 110 | 0.0 | 46.7 | 199.6 | 68.3 | 81.9 |
Pinevale | 84 | 41.7 | -31.1 | 114.7 | -22.6 | 27.0 |
Simei Green Condominium | 223 | 53.8 | -26.0 | 116.4 | -15.5 | -6.1 |
Summerdale | 64 | 29.7 | -32.0 | 111.5 | -11.3 | 51.6 |
The Dew | 38 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 141.3 | 78.0 | 88.4 |
The Eden At Tampines | 98 | 2.0 | -11.8 | 137.0 | 57.3 | 72.8 |
The Esparis | 130 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.9 | 65.8 | 71.1 |
The Floravale | 207 | 26.1 | -26.2 | 113.8 | -4.6 | 57.7 |
The Florida | 132 | 30.3 | -29.7 | 92.0 | -18.3 | 42.7 |
The Quintet | 123 | 0.0 | 48.8 | 140.4 | 82.4 | 89.3 |
The Rivervale | 157 | 32.5 | -29.4 | 92.2 | -18.9 | 41.6 |
Westmere | 15 | 66.7 | -20.3 | 93.0 | -12.9 | -8.7 |
Whitewater | 161 | 0.0 | 38.1 | 142.8 | 62.8 | 75.4 |
Windermere | 96 | 32.3 | -36.2 | 69.2 | -26.1 | 25.7 |
Woodsvale | 129 | 31.0 | -30.3 | 93.6 | -12.7 | 49.4 |
Yew Mei Green | 226 | 41.6 | -29.6 | 91.0 | -17.6 | 34.2 |
Resale Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit
Finally I look at the price differential of a resale unit when it is sold again. The data suggests that buyers can still make capital gain when they buy a resale unit and sell it again. Indeed at 25th percentile all transactions make positive gains. At the 50th percentile,, like for the launch to resale transactions, 12 developments have over 50% price increase.Table 3: Change in Price (From Resale to Resale)
Project Name | Sample Size* (No of Units) | % of Units Sold at a Loss | Lowest (%) | Highest (%) | 25th Percentile (%) | Median (%) |
Bishan Loft | 10 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 127.2 | 22.9 | 40.7 |
Chestervale | 12 | 0.0 | 19.8 | 125.9 | 47.5 | 77.7 |
Eastvale | 33 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 120.3 | 75.5 | 97.1 |
La Casa | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
Lilydale | 12 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 32.7 | 17.7 | 26.4 |
Northoaks | 100 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 158.3 | 27.5 | 88.9 |
Nuovo | 20 | 0.0 | 13.8 | 47.0 | 19.1 | 22.2 |
Park Green | 20 | 0.0 | 17.1 | 44.3 | 21.2 | 26.4 |
Pinevale | 12 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 100.6 | 16.0 | 28.0 |
Simei Green Condominium | 101 | 1.0 | -1.6 | 153.7 | 22.8 | 89.8 |
Summerdale | 38 | 0.0 | 13.6 | 157.3 | 91.2 | 102.1 |
The Dew | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
The Eden At Tampines | 10 | 0.0 | 23.8 | 34.7 | 24.4 | 26.8 |
The Esparis | 26 | 0.0 | 11.4 | 71.5 | 17.4 | 22.2 |
The Floravale | 75 | 1.3 | -9.7 | 141.0 | 23.6 | 54.2 |
The Florida | 47 | 4.3 | -8.0 | 143.4 | 32.6 | 92.8 |
The Quintet | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
The Rivervale | 36 | 5.6 | -27.0 | 115.0 | 32.0 | 77.4 |
Westmere | 16 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 157.2 | 106.5 | 114.7 |
Whitewater | 42 | 0.0 | 11.6 | 47.3 | 16.8 | 27.2 |
Windermere | 14 | 7.1 | -4.5 | 116.2 | 18.2 | 85.4 |
Woodsvale | 83 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 133.1 | 64.1 | 78.2 |
Yew Mei Green | 49 | 2.0 | -3.5 | 116.0 | 58.0 | 77.3 |
Conclusion
This article is done under time constraint and does not claim to be an expert's analysis of the EC market, instead it hopes to contribute some small insights into the discussion about ECs. Any feedback and comments are welcome.About Property Buyer http://www.PropertyBuyer.com.sg/mortgage We are a research-focused Singapore mortgage consultancy which helps you compare Singapore home loans either for new loans or refinancing. We use loan reports from Singapore's best loan analysis system (exclusive to us) at http://www.icompareloan.com/consultant/ to serve our customers. Our services are completely FREE to you as the banks pay us a referral fee upon loan disbursement.