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Outcome bias and Luck Factor???
By Create Wealth Through Long-Term Investing and Short-Term Trading  •  October 22, 2013
Just For Thinking .... How much of your investment success is due to outcome bias and luck factor? How can you know? Hmm...... Measure, then you will know. The Luck factor is likely to run out over a large number of occurrences over a long period of time. Right? For stock investment, we can measure Portfolio XIRR since inception over long period of time e.g. 15, 20, 30 years or more. Portfolio = Stocks + War Chest (Cash available for investing) XIRR is a measure of number over a period of time. A portfolio of stocks and war chest is a definitely a large number and 15 years (2 - 3 market cycles) should be long enough for a retail investor. XIRR is like ......
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By Create Wealth Through Long-Term Investing and Short-Term Trading
I am 62 yrs old uncle living in HDB heartland who has achieved financial independence @ 56 and finally retired @ 60 from full-time job as employee on 1 Oct 2016. Single household income since 1995 with three children. Eldest son and daughter are now working and youngest son still in his 3nd year Uni in SUTD. I have been doing long-term investing and short-term trading in Singapore stock market only since Jan 2000 so I am that Panda or Koala in the investment world; but I am still surviving well in the wild. I am now executing my Three Taps solution model to maintain sustainable retirement income for life till 2038. Cheers!
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