Property
URA And HDB 3Q Figures Show Slowing Market
By Property Buyer  •  October 28, 2013
As it turned out HDB preliminary estimates of HDB resale price index was conservative; in contrast URA's projections were slightly too dismal. When the official price indices are released today the HDB resale index showed a quarter-to-quarter decline of 0.87% - larger than the estimated 0.7%. For the 3rd quarter 2013, the index turned in 204.8; whereas for the previous quarter the index stood at 206.6. This is the first time since the 1st quarter 2009 that the quarterly change went into negative territory. But even then the decline was smaller at 0.79%. The number of resales transactions also fell by 13.49% from the previous quarter. While not rare for the quarterly changes in resales transactions to be negative, it is unusual for both the quarterly changes in price index and resales transactions to be negative.

Table 1: HDB Re-sale Price Index

Price Index

Q-o-Q % Change

Resales Transactions

Q-o-Q % Change

3Q’13

205.1

-0.87%

4,529

-13.49%

2Q’13

206.6

0.54%

5,235

20.76%

1Q’13

205.5

1.28%

4,335

-23.03%

4Q’12

202.9

2.53%

5,632

-14.15%

3Q’12

197.9

2.01%

6,560

-6.43%

2Q’12

194

1.25%

7,011

18.99%

1Q’12

191.6

0.63%

5,892

-0.49%

4Q’11

190.4

1.71%

5,921

0.30%

3Q’11

187.2

3.83%

5,903

-10.30%

2Q’11

180.3

3.15%

6,581

5.67%

1Q’11

174.8

1.63%

6,228

-3.50%

4Q’10

172

2.50%

6,454

-21.34%

3Q’10

167.8

4.03%

8,205

-9.97%

2Q’10

161.3

4.06%

9,114

7.43%

1Q’10

155

2.79%

8,484

-4.95%

4Q’09

150.8

3.86%

8,926

-23.38%

3Q’09

145.2

3.57%

11,649

14.39%

2Q’09

140.2

1.37%

10,184

57.99%

1Q’09

138.3

-0.79%

6,446

4.20%

4Q’08

139.4

6,186

Source: HDB On the other hand, URA private homes indices revealed that while the market may have slowed it was less severe than what the flash estimates suggested. The flash estimates for non-landed homes in the Core Central Region (CCR), Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) showed a quarter-on-quarter change of -0.5%, -1.1% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the actual figures are -0.28%, -0.93% and 2.19%. This marks the second consecutive quarter that prices in the CCR has slipped and the first time the quarterly prices in RCR fell since 1st quarter 2012. The only bright spark is the OCR which quarterly price index change remain positive. Although the increase is less than the preceding quarter of 3.81%, it is still a relatively high increment. Overall the property index for all private homes (excluding executive condominiums) edged up by 0.42%. This is the smallest increase since 1st quarter 2012 when the index declined quarter-on-quarter.

Table 2: URA Price Index for All Private Homes

Period Index For Private Home: All (excluding EC) Q-o-Q % Change

3Q’13

216.3

0.42%

2Q’13

215.4

1.03%

1Q’13

213.2

0.57%

4Q’12

212

1.83%

3Q’12

208.2

0.63%

2Q’12

206.9

0.44%

1Q’12

206

-0.10%

4Q’11

206.2

0.24%

3Q’11

205.7

1.33%

2Q’11

203

1.96%

1Q’11

199.1

2.21%

4Q’10

194.8

2.74%

3Q’10

189.6

2.93%

2Q’10

184.2

5.26%

1Q’10

175

5.61%

4Q’09

165.7

7.39%

3Q’09

154.3

15.75%

2Q’09

133.3

-4.72%

1Q’09

139.9

-14.07%

4Q’08

162.8

Source: URA

Table 3: URA Price Index for Non-landed Private Home, By Region

Period

Core Central Region

Rest of Central Region

Outside Central Region

3Q’13

212.5

-0.28%

191

-0.93%

219.8

2.19%

2Q’13

213.1

-0.19%

192.8

0.21%

215.1

3.81%

1Q’13

213.5

0.61%

192.4

0.21%

207.2

1.37%

4Q’12

212.2

0.71%

192

0.89%

204.4

3.76%

3Q’12

210.7

0.14%

190.3

0.85%

197

1.03%

2Q’12

210.4

0.57%

188.7

0.43%

195

0.52%

1Q’12

209.2

-0.62%

187.9

-0.58%

194

1.09%

4Q’11

210.5

0.53%

189

0.11%

191.9

0.58%

3Q’11

209.4

0.72%

188.8

1.18%

190.8

2.09%

2Q’11

207.9

1.61%

186.6

1.14%

186.9

1.74%

1Q’11

204.6

1.09%

184.5

2.05%

183.7

3.09%

4Q’10

202.4

2.22%

180.8

1.86%

178.2

2.06%

3Q’10

198

1.59%

177.5

2.31%

174.6

2.17%

2Q’10

194.9

5.35%

173.5

4.64%

170.9

5.69%

1Q’10

185

4.40%

165.8

7.87%

161.7

4.32%

4Q’09

177.2

7.33%

153.7

9.47%

155

6.31%

3Q’09

165.1

15.21%

140.4

18.48%

145.8

16.08%

2Q’09

143.3

-5.22%

118.5

-4.36%

125.6

-2.33%

1Q’09

151.2

-16.23%

123.9

-16.96%

128.6

-7.28%

4Q’08

180.5

149.2

138.7

Source: URA On a last note, the data suggests that the residential property market has slowed, with private housings in OCR remaining the only bright spot. House-hunters, what better time to buy a home than now? Prices are tumbling and interest rates are still low. Rates can climb next year when the Federal Reserve tapers QE3. Speak to a PropertyBuyer expert mortgage broker for a home loan report ™ and help in comparing Singapore home loans – all for FREE.
About Property Buyer http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg/mortgage/ We are a research-focused Singapore mortgage consultancy which helps you compare Singapore home loans either for new loans or refinancing. We use loan reports from Singapore’s best loan analysis system (exclusive to us) at http://www.icompareloan.com/consultant/ to serve our customers. Our services are completely FREE to you as the banks pay us a referral fee upon loan disbursement. Paul Ho is the editor of www.PropertyBuyer.com.sg, www.iCompareloan.com and www.SingaporeHomeLoan.net and he holds a Masters of Business Administration from a reputable university. He is passionate about helping people enhance their wealth through financial literacy and in making money work harder for them. Copyright ® - All articles are the copyright of www.propertybuyer.com.sg and CoreConcept Systems Pte Ltd and the company reserves full rights to use, reuse in any form or in any media including rights of attribution and credits of articles.
Read the full article
By Property Buyer
LEAVE A COMMENT
LEAVE A COMMENT

Your email address will not be published.

*

Your Email Address will not be published
*

Read More Articles
More from thefinance