The confusing phrase first used by Donalds Rumsfield during the invasion of Iraq. Let me do a summary of the known unknowns going into the year of the horse. (list not exhaustive, is what I know) What can go wrong: (Just a list, some of them are interrelated) 1) China shadow banking flare up. (WMP, trusts or SIVs) 2) Bursting of property bubbles 3) Conflicts in east china (China vs Japan; 2 Koreas; China and the South China Sea countries) 4) Currency turmoil in emerging markets 5) Asset price collapse of emerging markets 6) SEA elections frauds and conflicts   What can go right 1) Recovery and expansion of the DMs (US, Europe and Japan) 2) Euro breakup not happening 3) Piigs geting more competitive (Although unevenly)   Looks like we have plenty to worry about and less to cheer about. These are only the knowns unknowns. What other black ......