Nate Silver wrote a good book about predictions. I told myself that is an interesting topic since I have seen enough failures trying to predict where the market is going. I want to know what an expert predictor has to say about that. Although he had a chapter dedicated to predictions about the economy and the financial markets, I have included relevant content from the other chapters into this article.
A Beautiful Strategy is Risky
“Hedgehogs are type A personalities who believe in Big Ideas – in governing principles about the world that behave as though they were physical laws and undergird virtually every interaction in society. Think Karl Marx and class struggle, or Sigmund Freud and the unconscious. Or Malcolm Gladwell and the “tipping point”.
Foxes, on the other hand, are scrappy creatures who believe in a plethora of little ideas and in taking a multitude of approaches toward ...
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