Having covered the basic aspects of asymmetrical payoff previously (LINK), we will be covering our investment thesis for Petrobras. Petrobras caught our attention during the period when the oil crisis resulted in many investors panicking – selling off companies that were dependent on oil. Additionally, they were being investigated in a massive scandal in Brazil. From its peak in 2010, Petrobras was a USD 230billion market capitalisation company and currently, it has a market capitalisation of USD 43billion, translating to a loss of roughly 80% or USD 187billion.

Investment Thesis

Initially, our investment thesis was dependent on the reversion of oil prices. How do we deem what is a fair price for oil? However, after analysing the history behind the correlation between oil prices and companies, it dawned upon us that ultimately, there is always a replacement value for the oil ......