Read an article earlier. I extracted some interesting points as below, which I tend to agree.
“Oil is inherently cyclical business. The point is remarkably simple but amazing how often it gets forgotten by forecasters and investors.
In 150 years, since modern drilling of Edwin Drake’s well in 1859, real prices doubled in space of 3 years no fewer than six separate occasions, and halved on four. If 2015 oil price remained at $50, it will be fifth time. Only 1931 to 1969 oil price is relatively stable. The rest of time is very volatile and unpredictable.
Any attempt to predict oil prices medium term (2-5 years) and long term (>5 years) based on current prices or recent changes is bound to fail.
When prices are high and have been rising, most forecasts predict they will rise even further on increasing scarcity. Whey prices are low and have been ......
