Investors befuddled by Singapore’s recent precipitous plunge into bear market territory recently may be right in thinking that stocks are pointing towards the ominous R word, for recession. Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a report out today tries to make sense of all the brouhaha in the asset market, as well as take a deep dive into some of the leading indicators.
The investment bank’s Asean economist, Chua Hak Bin, believes Singapore likely slipped into a technical recession in the July-to-September third quarter.
“Singapore, being a small economy, may be a useful recession barometer for the rest of Asia,” writes in the report. The island-republic’s total trade, including re-exports, is more than three times its GDP and, as such, very sensitive to external demand, he notes.
During the tech recession in 2001 and the 2008/09 global financial crisis, Singapore was one of the first few countries, alongside trade-dependent economies ......