A recent book titled Superforecasters is making waves in the financial circle as expected. The book proposed that it is possible to predict the future, if a good team was in place, with teammates coming from very varied backgrounds and good training. Coincidentally, there had been a few occasions on this website where we discussed prediction and its ultimate futility. Today, we try to marry these concepts, hopefully coming away with a few key ideas for readers to ponder about. I believe the first thing to know about prediction is to never trust any. Never trust anyone who claims that he can predict and never trust any prediction to be accurate. The business of investing is not to predict the future. The business of investing is to try earn a high expected return by thinking hard about what could happen. Using historical standards this translates to 8-10% return per year ......