Happy New Year!
New Year’s day is often a re-e-e-a-ll-y lethargic day for me. I had a slight hangover from my New Year’s Eve countdown, so I spent the day reading Superforecasting – a pretty cool book on how to make better forecasts
The author, Philip Tetlock, organised a “forecasting tournament” where he recruited 3,200 volunteers – regular people like you and me – who signed up to make predictions like:
- Will Serbia be officially granted European Union candidacy by 31 December 2011?
- Will an outbreak of H4N1 in China kill more than ten people in the next six months?
- Will the Euro fall below $1.20 in the next 12 months?
The tournament spanned several years. Along the way, Philip Tetlock discovered something interesting:
As a group, his superforecasters ended up performing even better than professional intelligence analysts. The superforecasters beat professionals in the CIA and NSA who had access to classified …