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If You Had $20K, How Would You Invest It?
By cheerful.egg  •  January 3, 2016
Happy New Year! New Year’s day is often a re-e-e-a-ll-y lethargic day for me. I had a slight hangover from my New Year’s Eve countdown, so I spent the day reading Superforecasting a pretty cool book on how to make better forecasts The author, Philip Tetlock, organised a “forecasting tournament” where he recruited 3,200 volunteers – regular people like you and me – who signed up to make predictions like:
  • Will Serbia be officially granted European Union candidacy by 31 December 2011?
  • Will an outbreak of H4N1 in China kill more than ten people in the next six months?
  • Will the Euro fall below $1.20 in the next 12 months?
The tournament spanned several years. Along the way, Philip Tetlock discovered something interesting: As a group, his superforecasters ended up performing even better than professional intelligence analysts. The superforecasters beat professionals in the CIA and NSA who had access to classified ......
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By cheerful.egg
Hey, what’s up? My name’s Lionel. When I was a kid, my favourite comic of all time was Spider-Man. Before he became a superhero, Peter Parker had to deal the day-to-day struggles of a young person: Living with foster parents, grades, bullies, and getting pushed around.
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