Thank you everyone for participating in our rationality poll! We received over 500 responses. Here are the poll results and answers to our previous article on rationality.
Consider a coin toss with an equal probability of landing either heads (“H”) or tails (“T”) up, which event is more likely to happen?
(Both events are the same number of tosses)
Event 1: HHHHHTTTTT
Event 2: HTHTHTHTHT
Correct Answer: Equally likely. Event 2 seems more random and hence more probable. However, remember that the coin tosses are independent events. The chance of getting tails is always the same, even after tossing consecutive heads. Do not confuse the likelihood of Event 1 with mean reversion; mean reversion applies to non-independent events.
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, …