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Heuristics – short cut or blind following the blind?
By Singapore Man of Leisure  •  April 27, 2016
When we chit-chat or do bantering at our neighbourhood coffee shop, it's OK to do a bit of talk "male chicken" here and there. You are welcomed to do it here at this watering hole too. But when it comes to putting your own money on the line, you may want to do a few more verification questions before you swallow what others say hook, line, and sinker... Let me share some examples where blindly relying on other people's heuristics may do more harm than good:
Top floor no good; too hot Often we hear this urban myth shared by parrots who heard it from a friend of a friend or from their ah ma. Not that their friend or ah ma were wrong, mind you. Problem lies with you. Did you verify the context and perspective of their feedback? The 4th storey of 4 storey walk-up apartment is "top floor". My current HDB flat's top floor is 10 storey. Contrast it with the newer HDB BTOs where top floor can be 47 storeys! How about the 2nd level of a 2 storey landed bungalow? Is it "top floor" too? Feeling sheepish now? Blue chip stocks are safer Eh? What exactly is a blue chip stock? Are NOL, Chartered Semiconductor, Standard Chartered Bank, and Olam considered blue chip stocks? They big daddy owned you know? How's that working out for you? Do you know the differences between a stalwart blue chip and a cyclical blue chip? I didn't think so. Warren Buffett says we should do passive index investing There is a difference between buying into low cost index funds and ETFs. If you can name the differences, it shows you know what you are getting into. Superb! Some US proponents of low cost indexing have found the S&P 500 too "narrow focused" and have recommended the Wilshire 5000 instead. And some passive indexing gurus have even warned their US followers not to commit to a single country focus and seek greater diversification by having a global low cost index fund. Now what do you think of our STI ETF of 30 component stocks as a passive indexing strategy? You sure this was what Warren Buffett had in mind? I wanted fish ball noodles, but can't find; so I bought bak chor mee... Please don't say bak chor mee is fish ball noodles OK? Develop your own heuristics One man's meat is another man's poison. A mentor will facilitate his mentee to become his own man. A snake oil shepherd will encourage his followers to become part of his flock. Cats can't be herded. Meow.
Singapore Man of Leisure (welcome to my blog; just google it!)
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