Two-thirds of Singapore’s economy is already in technical recession and the worst is yet to come, says DBS Group Research.
With the release of detailed 2Q GDP data on Aug 11, Singapore has cut the top end of its 2016 growth forecast from 3% to 1-2%, after its economy expanded less than previously estimated on the back of a weakening global environment.
“A negative shock from the external environment could tip the economy into contraction,” warns analyst Irvin Seah in a Thursday report. Among other forecasts, Seah is predicting:
Bleak outlook for 3-4Q
DBS continues to expect a growth rate of 1.5% for the full year. That’s the slowest to be seen in Singapore’s economy over the last seven years. While the headline figure has averaged 2.1% y-o-y in 1H16, this was partly due to the low base in the same period last year.
Seah believes the opposite ......