Forecasting or predicting the market movement
Sometimes I have been asked by friends on how will the market or certain stocks perform in coming months or what will be the direction of index moving towards in next year or so.
Even in every investment seminars , one may notice that the most question people like to ask to those investment “ Gurus “ will be “ how do you think the prospect of STI index in 20XX ? or What do you think about the performance of Bank / O&G / property sector in coming months ?
The future, like any complex problem, has far too many variables to be predicted. Quantitative models, historical models, even psychic models have all been tried — and have all failed.
Bellow quoted from HBR : “The best prediction machines known to us are actually our own brains. Many people think of the brain as either a really powerful computer or just something too mysterious to ......