This is a continuation of my earlier post:

Geo Energy Resources Investing Thesis – Part I

Let me delve straight into it.

In Part I, I described the recent history of the company, it’s acquisitions and growth, and the recent positive developments for the company. I also analyzed it’s debt issue and potential cashflow requirements.

In the mid term though, IMHO, the single most important factor that will determine how well the company does, is the coal prices.

That’s probably true of most commodity companies. Acquisitions and offtake agreement are great, but coal price is without doubt, the single biggest factor.

So let’s look into the macro factors for coal.

Coal Price Trend

Coal prices have not been kind to almost anyone in the entire supply chain. This chart gives a gauge of how Indonesian coal prices look like in the past 6 years:

This widely used HBA marker is …