Bet you never saw it coming! (Wrong but make money)

Neither did I!

Let’s not talk theory about Trump’s win yesterday.

There’s enough pontifications and red-faces out there. We know who got it right; who got It wrong…

Boy, was I wrong!!!

Like the majority of the market, I had a small skin in the game that’s positioned for a Clinton victory – long USD/SGD.

Nearly spilled my coffee when I saw Trump leading Hillary early in the morning.

Markets went bonkers and it was Brexit deja vu all over again.

USD dived; equities markets in Asia bled big time. S&P futures went limit down 5%, and gold went ballistic!

I was so close to closing my position – to protect my profit – before I noticed something interesting in the price action.

Each time Trump won a state, the USD/SGD pair will bounce up a bit; and the reverse is true when Hillary won? All these happened in a broad and general USD downshift.

That’s not how its “supposed” to be??? Isn’t USD “supposed” to weaken if Trump won?

The advantage of trading fulltime and watching the price action “live” is spotting these little tell-tale signs that someone is building a counter-trend position against the general market.

I removed my finger from my mouse as I watch in suspended animation when the markets start to reverse in the afternoon.

Simsci was off the lows of the day, so was USD/JYP, and gold has lost its upward momentum.

I finally closed my long USD/SGD position at a profit of 511 pips in the evening at around 5:20 pm.

Before you get any wrong ideas, I had this position since August – no, it wasn’t an intraday trade. I’m not an intraday trader; I suck at that!

There you go! This is another one of those examples where I was wrong; but I made money.

Its better to be lucky than smart!

I was so glad I’m not in the long USD/JYP pair for I surely would have been profit-stopped out and missed the reversal in the USD…

No, this is not a bragging post.

Guess what? At 10:00 pm last night, I knew I had sold too early. USD/SGD went up another 40 pips.

And this morning at 8:00 am? If I held my position one more night, I would have made an extra 80 pips.

See? After so many years, I still leave so much money on the table… How’s that for my exit skills? Much work remains to be done…

I think I shouldn’t be so hard on myself. I was wrongly positioned and when market gave me an opportunity out, I should take it!

For those who don’t trade forex, did you expect the STI to gap up today after the sell-off yesterday?

No right?

And if you panicked sell yesterday, don’t be too hard on yourself too.

Remember beginning of this year? Those who panicked sell on the first day were glad they did so; especially when seeing STI continue to bleed towards 2500 in the coming days…

Whether you are an investor or trader, once you in this arena for a few years, you’ll soon discover there’s only 2 things you can control:

Your entries; and your exits.

Humbling right?


Singapore Man of Leisure (welcome to my blog; just google it!)

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