New Ein55 Investment Style 2017: Frog Cooking Theory

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Although both were/are at historical peak stock prices with high optimism, there is a key difference between bullish stock markets of China SSEC (Year 2015) and US S&P and DJI (Jan 2017).  The chart below shows that the rate of index growth is much faster for China SSEC, therefore the high optimism was not sustainable, going up and coming down within months. US stock market is a gradual warming process, although feverish, it is more sustainable.

We may have heard the story of a frog swims comfortably in warm water, could be killed unknowingly when the water is heated up gradually. A frog could adjust the body resistance to temperature change, but there is a limit for the tolerance, eventually it will get killed if the water temperature is too high because it is so used to the environment, does not know how to jump out of the danger…

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