Since my previous post, I have been ravenously reading up about property – more so than my usual latent interest.
One of my more detailed previous posts that I re-read was a long one about BNP’s property research report. Since 2015 wasn’t over since the report was published and we are already in 2017 now, I found the relevant 2015 and 2016 numbers and plugged it into the model. Unsurprisingly, at least on the demographics side, it is leaning towards the bear case scenario, in which property prices only bottom between 2018-2020. Of course, this isn’t an exact science and their model could be wrong, especially since I didn’t use every aspect of it.
Demographics point towards a very marginal increase in foreigner population (2-2.5%), which is markedly lower compared to previous periods.
Supply looks just slightly larger than expected, which is of course negative for prices overall.