The idea of business cycle investing is simple. Allocate more of your resource based on the different stages of the economy cycle. Invest in stock and property during the recession and early recovery of an economic cycle. Invest in commodities and financial related stock during the growth to stagnancy stage of the economic cycle as inflation and interest rates start to accelerate. The last stage whereby the economy swings back into recession is the time to hold on to cash and bonds.
This simplistic assumption held true for the past century when United States is the sole super economic superpower and the health of the global economy rests on the rise and fall of US. However, the picture gets muddled in recent years due to the rise of commodities hungry powerhouse: China.
The commodities market in the past decade seems to be aligned more closely to the economic cycle of China, rather than US …Read the full article →