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The Model Thinker #12 : Random Walks
By Growing your tree of prosperity  •  April 3, 2019

The simplest form of the random walk is a function that has an equal probability of being +1 or -1. The expected outcome of this function is zero and the standard deviation is the square root of the number of periods.

A simple random walk in one dimension has two important properties. The first property is that it is recurrent. Over time, it crosses zero infinitely often. The second property is that it is unbounded - it can exceed any positive or negative threshold.

Our stock markets can be considered to be nearly normal (or Gaussian) random walks with a positive drift. This means that the stock market changes by an amount drawn from a normal distribution.

The implication is thus, once you deduct the equity premium and the risk free rate, the stock markets returns are supposed to be random a mean value of 0%. This is the efficient markets hypothesis -

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By Growing your tree of prosperity
I have recently completed my Juris Doctor and I am waiting to be called by the Singapore Bar. For the past 15 years I was an IT manager and I have worked in multinationals, financial exchanges, trade unions and even a government agency. I started my career as an AS/400 administrator and moved on to manage IT projects and operations
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