With a bit of time on hand this weekend, I went to collect the dividend yield data of Capitaland Retail China Trust (CRCT) by going through its annual reports in recent years. Below is a plot. As you can see, the “trading range” of the yield of CRCT has been very consistent over the years. Too consistent in my view.
As you can see, the highest dividend yield for a particular year is about 7.6% while the lowest yield is about 6.0%. If you believe the reversion to mean and this graph, then you can predict the price range of CRCT for the year by back-calculating it from the DPU.
Say, we use the DPU 2018, i.e 10.22 cents and the current share price of $1.53, CRCT current yield is about 6.7%, approximately the middle of the dividend range.
So theoretically, it can go either way :-), share price increases