Statistical probabilities are a fact of life, and the currently topical issue of infectious illnesses makes such discussions interesting again.
Purely out of curiosity and boredom, here are some napkin Mathematics I’ve done on the probabilities of striking Singapore’s million-dollar Toto and dying from the coronavirus that has since reached our shores. During 2003’s SARS, 238 people were infected. Singapore’s population then was roughly 4.2 million. That’s a 0.00567% chance. 33 people, or 13.9% of the victims, unfortunately succumbed to the illness. That makes the raw odds of dying from SARS 0.000786%. The current coronavirus situation seems less severe than SARS. The mortality rate appears to be closer to 3% than SARS’s 11-13%. Singapore is also more prepared now, compared to how we were caught off guard almost 20 years ago. I think it’s fair to say that the odds...Tl;dr: Keep calm and carry on.
