You'll probably never know. Let's look at this stock market crash. There are 4 potential conclusions. 1. You think that the market has bottomed. And you're right. 2. You think the market has bottomed. And you're wrong. 3. You think that the market has not bottomed. And you're right 4. You think that the market has not bottomed. And you're wrong. Ok, let's look at this one at a time. If you think the market has bottomed due to whatever reasons and analysis. You buy. If you're right... you conclude it's cos of your analysis. You think you're smart. Are you sure that it's cos of your analysis? Who can confirm it? You look at all your calculations and your charts and think. No... confirm it's cos of my smarts. It's not luck. IF you're wrong. You would think you're not smart, or maybe just unlucky... But who can confirm? No one can confirm smarts or luck. Investing or calling the bottom of a stock market isn't like 1+1 =...