Keong Hong FY16 Results Update

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Keong Hong had opened its books for FY2016 ending September 31st. As Keong Hong is one of my counters, I will do a short review on its performance. Interested investors may find my previous assessments of Keong Hong here. In a nutshell:   Source: Keong Hong's Press Release 1) Diluted EPS in FY2016 stands at 15.08 cents, having decreased by 1.33 cents (~8%) 2) ROE … [Read more...]

What if you bought all SGX IPOs in 2016?

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A common and recurring theme found in Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor and Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street is to be wary of IPOs. However, you would have actually done rather brilliantly if you had invested in all the IPOs with public tranches (that is, IPOs which retail investors like you and me can subscribe to). In fact, if you had spent S$1000 on every … [Read more...]

What returns will be required to beat the STI in 2017?

If the analysts are right, you will need more than 9.41% to do so. After a rather topsy-turvy 2016 in which original constituents like Noble Group got replaced, SGX's passive Straits Times Index (STI) had ended the year on 30th December at about 2881. Here are the consolidated STI targets that various brokerage have for 2017: UOB KAY HIAN - 3000 MAYBANK KIM ENG - 3000 RHB - … [Read more...]

Book Review: 5 takeaways from Peter Lynch’s Beating the Street

4 months after my first review of The Intelligent Investor (here), I have finally found some time to read my 2nd investing classic - Peter Lynch's Beating the Street. About the Author: Peter Lynch is a legendary stock investor best known for his time as the manager of the Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990. During his time at Magellan, Lynch averaged a 29.2% annual … [Read more...]

New Counter: Cogent Holdings

Cogent Holdings Limited (KJ9) Equity: Cogent Holdings (SGX: KJ9) Business: Logistics Management Servicde Provider Markets exposed: Singapore, Malaysia Stock exchange: SGX Purchase price: 0.610 Purchase month: December 10% per annum:  I believe that Cogent can easily provide returns exceeding 10% per annum in the long run through both earnings growth and valuation … [Read more...]

Problems with the OPEC/non-OPEC oil deal

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December has been a good month for oil bulls as OPEC agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day. This was soon followed up with news that non-OPEC countries had agreed to cut production by 558,000 barrels a day. While these are definitely good news for investors in the oil and gas (O&G) space, caution should still be exercised when investing in downstream O&G stocks. This … [Read more...]

New Counter: Hock Lian Seng

After being overseas for the most part of 6 weeks, I finally have some time to research and invest the earnings from my divestment of Transit Mixed Concrete.   Hock Lian Seng Holdings Limited (J2T)   Equity: Hock Lian Seng Holdings Limited (SGX: J2T) Business: Engineering, Building & Property Development Markets exposed: Mainly Singapore Stock exchange: SGX Purchase price: … [Read more...]

Portfolio Earnings Review

One benefit of value investing is the privilege of not having to constantly monitor your portfolio for live updates - after all, value investors invest in the long term. Short term volatility and noise should, theoretically, have little significance in our investments. This has truly been a boon for me as I am currently kept rather busy on an overseas assignment. As such, any results release … [Read more...]

Portfolio Update: Taking profit from Transit Mixed Concrete

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I have decided to take profit on my investment in Transit Mixed Concrete (TMC) after their recent disappointing results release prompted a review on my initial investment thesis. In my original investment considerations (here), I mentioned that TMC was an extremely resilient business. Well, a 31% fall in revenue and a 49% fall in profits definitely changes things. Dividends were also reduced … [Read more...]

Why I won’t buy the Fullerton Healthcare IPO

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Apart from the fact that I have no money, that is. As Asia Pacific grows in both population and wealth, demand for quality healthcare is definitely going to increase. Indeed, optimism for solid growth has driven valuations for other SGX-listed healthcare operators like Raffles Medical Group sky high. It is in this back drop where news that Fullerton Healthcare IPO was being priced at the … [Read more...]

New Counter: Micro-Mechanics

Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd (5DD) Equity: Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd (SGX:5DD) Business: Manufacturing in Semiconductor industry Markets exposed: Mainly Asia and North America Stock exchange: SGX Purchase price: $0.85 / share Purchase month: October 2016 10% per annum: Micro-Mechanics has declared a dividend of 6 cents for FY2016, which translates into a yield of … [Read more...]

1H’16 (Apr-Oct) Portfolio Returns

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As per the stated tracking timeline (half yearly in April and October), it is time to review the performance of my portfolio. *includes losses on Yuuzoo and gains on Global Investments In terms of objectives, I have fulfilled both my aims: 1) To beat the SPDR STI ETF 2) To exceed 10% per annum To be honest, the results were better than my expectations as I had thought that … [Read more...]

Introducing CRI’s free Probability of Default modelling

The National University of Singapore has a Risk Management Institute. Within the Risk Management Institute, there is a Credit Research Initiative (CRI). You may visit their website here. In their own words, this is what the the CRI is about: "The Credit Research Initiative (CRI) is a non-profit undertaking by the Risk Management Institute at NUS, and seeks to promote research and development … [Read more...]

Samsung’s loss is Apple’s gain

After my 2 posts on property outlook, I was heartened to see Singapore Business Review post some "expert" opinions over the past week that backed my opinion up. Anyway, today's topic is a much more light-hearted one involving 2 companies that have been hogging the headlines in recent week - Samsung and Apple. Samsung and Apple are among the biggest companies in the world with market caps of … [Read more...]

Commercial, Retail and Residential – when will Singapore’s property prices recover?

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It is no doubt that Singapore's property prices are currently stuck in a rut. However, commercial, residential and retail (even hospitality room rates and industrial rents) spaces are trending slightly differently and hence are likely to recover at different times. Commercial Singapore's prime commercial rental rates have been declining since the beginning of 2015. Source: URA … [Read more...]

Bill Ackman: when overconfidence wrecks even the best value investors

Confidence is an important trait for any successful value investor. After all, value itself can mostly be found only by buying against the market. It therefore takes a very convicted investor to hold his nerves while everyone is dissing his holdings. Conviction is something Bill Ackman does not lack. Mr Ackman is a famous activist value investor whose Pershing Square Capital Management runs a … [Read more...]

What Fixed Income investors should know but often don’t

What does Singapore's Swiber bonds default have in common with the United States' 2009 Subprime crisis? Both had resulted in many over-leveraged retail investors getting their hands severely burnt at supposedly 'safe' fixed income investments. Personally, I find retail investors' willingness to leverage on any fixed income investments worrying. While developed countries' inflation indexed bonds … [Read more...]

Keong Hong Q3/16 Earnings Review

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It is Keong Hong's turn to open its books and I remain cautiously optimistic on Keong Hong's business. Earnings: Source: Keong Hong's Press Release It is pleasing to note that revenue and profit margins have both improved on the back of revenue recognition from Maldives' resort constructions. However, it is a concern that administrative and finance costs have both increased rather … [Read more...]

DBS Q2/16 Earnings Review and Oil Outlook

DBS's Q2/16 (and by extension, 1H/16) earnings was encouraging in the face of mounting oil and gas fears amongst investors. Earnings Quality Interest income had increased 5%. Investors should be pleased to know that this increase was largely due to an increase in net interest margin (1.87 in Q2/16 vs 1.75 in Q2/15) rather than an increase in loan to deposit ratio (91.8 in Q2/16 vs 91.6 in … [Read more...]