Author: 8% Value Investhink

2016 in Review: Most Unpredictable Year Ever!

2016 has to go down in history as the worst year for forecasters ever. Who would have predicted that the China market would collapse 25% in the first month of the calendar year, after dropping 40% in 2015, then only to rebound by year end? And the Bank of Japan reducing interest rates into negative territory, pulling 20-30% of the global bond market into negative yields. And commodities! Oil from $100 skyfalling to $30 and then back to $60, bringing the rest of the resource stuff Рiron ore, copper, coal up, up and away!   Then Duterte, a...

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Hierarchy of Financial Needs

Most readers would probably have come across Maslow’s famous hierarchy of needs: a pretty neat explanation of how humans should view our existence in terms of our needs. Abraham Maslow, an Amercan psychologist, created this hierarchy as he was trying to understand human nature. The hierarchy of needs is usually produced in a pyramid like the one shown below. The theory goes like this: humans have needs and we need to fulfill our basic needs before we can advance to the next level. For example, the most basic needs like food, water, shelter have to be fulfilled before we...

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Vietnam Property: 5 Bagger! – Part 2

This is the continuation of the previous post on Vietnam Property. We have established the following in the last post: 1. Vietnam has a huge and hungry population and is on the growth trajectory to be a developed country. GDP will continue grow at high single digit and property prices at a multiple of that over time. It might be the last Asian Tiger in our lifetimes. 2. The development of the Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), mirrors the development of Shanghai. With the east of the city growing much faster: the analogy of Pudong and Puxi vs HCMC’s...

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Vietnam Property: 5 Bagger! – Part 1

Here’s an investment opportunity of a lifetime, yes once in a lifetime. If there is one post that you should read in 2016, this is the one. It’s about Vietnam – the last Asian Tiger. For most of us in sunny Singapore, Vietnam is probably not on most people’s radar. It’s not as vibrant as Bangkok and the rest of Thailand, there is no historical site like Angkor Wat or Borobudur, hence not as big a tourist attraction. There are also no famous beaches, and no theme parks. Even the traditional costume Ao Dai (pic below) doesn’t appeal much...

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SIA Engineering – Part 2

This is an continuation of the previous post on SIA Engineering (SIAEC). As described in the last post, SIA Engineering has a solid business model that helps global airlines maintain their fleet. SIAEC’s business moat is built on strong branding, economies of scale, efficiency which churns out high free cashflow and a high return on equity (ROE). It’s also worth noting that the business is somewhat counter cyclical – when the macro economy slows and air travel is reduced, the airlines send more of their aircrafts for overhaul. This is shown in the same table (used in the last...

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SIA Engineering – Part 1

SIA Engineering (SIAEC) is one of the strong blue chips name in Singapore to buy and hold for dividends. It has also made regular appearance in the annual dividend stock list posted on this site in almost every year since 2009. The long term stock chart below shows that it has compounded its intrinsic value, albeit with some cyclicality while paying annual dividends for the past 14 years (based on Yahoo! Finance, the “D”s representing when dividends were paid). An investor who bought the stock at $1.5 in 2002 would have almost tripled his money including dividends. SIAEC’s long...

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2016 High Dividend List – Singapore, US, Australia

It’s out! The second section of this year’s list threw out a few interesting names in the tech, finance and other sectors and there’s an interesting discussion point that would serve to transform fundamentally the way some of us might want to invest! Yes, it’s a big deal. First, here’s the list: 2016 Dividend List – Part 2 Again, since the list gone global, Singapore names were relegated. To just one in this second portion – SATS. This name had appeared multiple times over the years, it continues to be a good firm although valuation might be too expensive...

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2016 High Dividend List – Singapore, Europe, US

The annual dividend list is out! As per last year, restricting the list to just Singapore can only yield a handful of names, hence it’s more worthwhile to see things from a global perspective. The criteria for the screen had not been change for years except minor tweaks. Here’s the first 20 names: 2016 Dividend List – Part 1 There are two Singapore names in the list: Yangzijiang and UMS. Yangzijiang is a shipbuilder which unfortunately is stuck in a bad part of the shipping industry which would take years to unravel i.e. low probability of making good money...

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Great Scot! Brexit?

It’s been three weeks into Brexit and the financial world now think that maybe it was never an issue at all? US S&P is back near all time high, the FTSE 100 bounced back with a vengeance and hit its high for 2016. Even the STI is now close to 3,000. Brexit? Nah. Let’s Move On! That’s market short-termism for you. For most people, it was actually more disappointing that in the same week, England was knocked out of the Euro Finals. By Iceland. Ouch! People asked, “What happened?” This was the Great Britain, we were talking about the...

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Teach Less Learn More – Lessons Learnt Part 3

This is the last instalment about Singapore’s Teach Less Learn More Education Philosophy, its trials and tribulations and the improvements needed. Links to the earlier parts below: Part 1 Part 2 We discussed how Singapore’s education system should nurture the love for learning and also focus on collaboration not competition. Google and the great companies of the world collaborate to bring about better results. It’s not voting out your mates in some reality TV in order to win a million dollars. The real world is about working together to create blue oceans, not battling it out in red oceans....

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Teach Less Learn More – Lessons Learnt Part 2

This is a follow-up post on Teach Less Learn More – Part 1. Teach Less Learn More (TLLM) was touted as the frontier philosophy in Singapore’s education system to make learning holistic, bringing learning from inside the classroom to hands-on experiences, learning by discovery and less rote memorizing. Unfortunately, the implementation left much to be desired. Today, after years of TLLM, we are still stuck in an epic education war, akin to the popular Animal Kaiser game, where no animals nor their masters actually win. Perhaps we have to go back to the genesis of Singapore’s education system to...

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Teach Less Learn More – Lessons Learnt Part 1

Despite this being an investment blog, education posts written in 2011 and there after had delivered one of the highest pageviews as a result of our obsessively competitive education system and the interest it generated. There had been various changes since then: it was announced that PSLE would move away from the three digit scoring system, schools would be more holistic building on the TLLM (a.k.a teach less learn more philosophy) implemented almost a decade ago amongst other changes. Hence it might be a good time to give an update here. Let’s recap a few topics: 1. Parents vs...

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Singtel bought out 8% for S$200m

Dear readers, it is a pleasure to make a splendid announcement today. Singtel has bought over this site for S$200m and all readers whom liked us on Facebook will get an equal share of the profits i.e. around SGD 500,000 per person. Woohoo! Just kidding. Today is 1st of April after all. Today we would like to share insights into some of the stocks that were discussed previously here. One of which was Colgate, the blockbuster toothpaste maker that dictate how Singaporeans brush our teeth. (Darlie is also owned by Colgate). It was reported that Colgate sales surged today...

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Overseas Education Ltd – Part 2

This is a continuation from the previous post. A quick recap: Overseas Education (OEL) operates one of the largest international schools in Singapore and was listed on SGX in 2013. The stock has since collapsed below its IPO price due to the three issues discussed previously. It move from Orchard to Pasir Ris, a less prestigious location and lost 20% of its enrolment. Competition has increased with now over 70 international schools in Singapore. The global economic woes hit Singapore hard with lots of expats losing jobs and going home. OFS senior year students As alluded to in the...

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Overseas Education Ltd – Part 1

Overseas Education Ltd (Bloomberg Ticker: OEL SP) is an intriguing small cap stock in Singapore listed in 2013 that almost doubled but then crashed spectacularly in the last 1.5 years. It now trades at 12% free cashflow yield, 11x PE and pays a 4% dividend (likely to be more going forward) and earnings are stable and growing barring Singapore’s demise (i.e. our beloved little red dot one day becoming irrelevant). For the uninitiated, OEL operates the largest independent international school in Singapore called Overseas Family School (OFS) providing expatriate kids with quality international education. It started in 1991 and...

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