Author: 8% Value Investhink

2018 Dividend List – Part 2

This is a continuation of the first 2018 dividend post. The second part of 2018’s dividend list consists of the other two tobacco companies and some other names. This screen was done before Philip Morris collapsed 15% on bad earnings so now they are even more attractive. The big investment question for tobacco is always whether we want to associate ourselves with the largest mass murderers in the history of mankind. Warren Buffett never did although some investors including yours truly here were never that noble. This reminds me of a quote from a recent good docu-movie – The...

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Tangible Thoughts #4: Pitiful Pump Uncles

The saga of the week in Singapore was about pumping petrol. For readers not from Singapore, here’s the story. A BMW driver drives his car into a Caltex petrol station and said, “Fill Ten” to the pump uncle. The pump uncle then proceeded to pump gasoline to full tank, because he heard “full tank”. The driver, realizing his car now has a full tank, became enraged, scolded the pump uncle and refused to pay up. He single-handedly cogged up the whole Caltex station for half an hour. By then, his face, his car number are all up on social...

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2018 Dividend List – Part 1

The time of the year has come to review the annual dividend list, this year we are breaking up to list into more parts so that we can discuss more names. We have used the same criteria over the years which is free cashflow, EBIT margins, ROE and the dividend yield. The most important one would be the free cashflow. As this determines the companies’ ability to pay dividends. Dividends should be a integral part of everyone’s portfolio because this is where real money comes back to us. In my experience, 50% or more of an investor’s monetary gains...

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Of Frauds and Facebook

A recent bloomberg article “How Facebook Help Shady Advertisers Pollute the Internet” discussed how fraud advertising was crazy on Facebook. These are ads selling slimming pills, money making stock tips and sure-win cryptocurrencies, miracle hair growing cream and other shady products or services via affiliates that would utilize Facebook’s user data to find their victims. Most people would know that these things won’t work. If they did, then they wouldn’t be coming from unheard sources. Yet there are always enough gullible people to prey on. Facebook knows who they are, because everyone uploaded everything about their lives on Facebook....

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Chart of the Month #10: The Great Flood

    The chart above depicts very clearly the QE program by the world’s major central bank since the global financial crisis of 2009. The flood of liquidity exceeds trillions of dollars. We can also see that the bulk of the liquidity was created after 2011 by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.   Hence while the US is tapering, the decline in liquidity is negligible when compared to the mountains of monies created over the last nine years. This great flood of cheap money is the reason for many phenomena that we are seeing including...

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Tangible Thoughts #3: Sg Condo vs US Island

In the US, one can buy an island for $8.7m while in Singapore it might not even pay for a toilet in a condominium? Something to think about yah? Excerpt from the news below of the most expensive condominium in Singapore. GUOCOLAND will release later this year (2017) the super penthouse in its 99-year leasehold Wallich Residence project in Tanjong Pagar which supposedly has an auspicious-sounding price tag of S$108 million. While the 21,108 square foot triplex is the highest residence in Singapore – the 64-storey tower in which Wallich Residence is located is 290 metres high. But this is...

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F&N 6 Years On – Part 2

The is a continuation of the previous post. We discussed how F&N had become a diary powerhouse in ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) and the crown jewel is actually its 19% stake in Vinamilk which now accounts for 47% of its earnings. So what is Vinamilk? Well, Vinamilk is the largest diary company in Vietnam with 50% market share across the different diary products. It is also the largest listed company in Vietnam at S$17bn market cap! F&N, at S$3.7bn market cap, implies that its stake in Vinamilk pretty much explains for its entire existence and the...

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F&N 6 Years On – Part 1

6 years ago, we discussed Fraser & Neave (F&N)’s fate in a tongue-in-cheek Battle of the Animals post. As per our short term attention span in today’s world, we left it hanging, without an update, for six long years. Well, today is the day. We shall stop our sucking thumbs! We shall follow up with the long await instalment to our own saga and analyze things clearly. To recap, the saga came about as the Elephant in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) room charged into our tiny red dot to try to grab Tiger, F&N’s baby –...

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Happy CNY!

It’s the Year of the Earth Dog! But this doesn’t mean markets cannot go up! According to internet predictions, this year will see resource industries doing well with oil and gas leading the way! Also, Donald Trump, born in the year of the Fire Dog in 1946, will set everything ablaze! Dingyi Music Group The God of Wealth is also looking to bestow on Earth his blessings in 2018. Hence Dingyi Music Group is presenting this beautiful 财神到 (God of Wealth arrives!) played with traditional Chinese orchestra insturments. With the God of Wealth’s arrival, this means that property, gold...

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Book Lessons #1: The Snowball Early Chapters

As most regular readers might know. I had been amazingly slow in my reading. So, in 2018, I finally finished reading Alice Schroeder’s 2008 masterpiece on Buffett’s life titled The Snowball. This is the best book written on Buffett ever. It depicted his whole life from birth in 1930 all the way to events in 2007-2008. I think there are so many lessons we can learn that we should revisit these posts in the months and years ahead. But for today let’s focus on a very practical today’s common life issue that I gleamed from the earlier chapters in...

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Tangible Thoughts #2: Market Turning?

Here’s a long quote from a 2006 movie called “The Prestige” directed by Christopher Nolan starring Christian Bale and Hugh Jackman. Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called “The Pledge”. The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course… it probably isn’t. The second act is called “The Turn”. The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary....

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Chart of the Month #8: Flattening Yield Curve

This argument came about in late Nov when some prominent economists noted that the US yield curve is flattening and might invert soon. Flattening or inverting yield curves are big deals bcos they were followed by recessions 7 out of 8 times since WWII. The chart below shows just that. As you can see, we are likely to head into another one as the 10yr-3m spread goes to zero, which implies flattening or inverting yield curve. The economic rationale is weak though. Why does a flattening yield curve causes recession? One reasoning postulates that banks, the lubricants of a...

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Singtel: Becoming A Dumber Pipe?

I have been a long term shareholder as well as a long term mobile phone subscriber of Singtel. The experience had not been great, to say the least, especially in the past three years. Singtel’s stock had done okay if we look back in time. It was $2.2 or so in 2007 and today it’s $3.7. An investor who held throughout would had made 68% on capital gain and another 40% or so in dividends. But in the last three years, it did nothing. Meanwhile, DBS went from $15 to $25 and became the largest stock in Singapore (overtaking...

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Tangible Thoughts #1

Welcome to yet another recurring theme type of posts! Modeled after Xi Jin Ping penning down his thoughts for the Middle Kingdom after Mao and Deng, this series will pen down bite size thoughts from the great investors as well as other thought leaders. Here’s the first inauguration thought from David Einhorn taken from an excerpt of a talk he gave recently. He was asked this interesting question from the audience and his answer was just enlightening. Audience: Do you sort of stick to your guns, when it comes to entering contrarian positions and holding it until it works...

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