TheFinance.sg » AK71

Economics 2012: Off the top of my head.

AK71 — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 13:23:00 +0000

I have been doing more thinking. OK, so what’s new?

In recent weeks, the stock markets rallied and with the strong closing on Wall Street last night, they look like they could move even higher next week.

The bulls say that the tide has turned and things are moving higher from here and that we should buy stocks on pull backs. The bears say that what we have seen recently is just a bear market rally from oversold positions and that stock markets will see new lows in time.

Both bulls and bears are looking into their crystal balls and coming up with reasons why they are going to be right. My own crystal ball is cloudy and I doubt it works at all.

However, drawing from what I have read in the news, it seems like the eurozone crisis is far from over. Banks in the eurozone are still …

Courage Marine: Chance to cut loss.

AK71 — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:00:00 +0000

With the BDI sinking amidst a worsening situation of overcapacity and economic malaise in Europe, the rally in Courage Marine’s share price provided a chance for me to cut my long exposure with minimal losses.

We are also blessed to have an industry insider, Jason, amongst the regular readers of ASSI and if the evidence provided is anything to go by, the bleak situation for bulk carriers looks set to worsen.

Low: 662.

Although Courage Marine entered the worsening state of affairs from a position of strength, it is unlikely to do better than the preceding year. In fact, for some, its very survival is in question.

With today’s white candle formed on the back of higher volume, could we not see price going higher? We could, of course. 11c or even 12c could be tested next if the bullishness continues…

NOL: Cutting losses on a strong rebound.

AK71 — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 04:26:00 +0000

Months ago, I made an ill fated decision to go long in NOL. It was a decision based purely on TA and it was a trade that went awry. Straying from my tried and tested methodology of FA + TA plus a lack of a cut loss price has resulted in holding on to paper losses. I should perhaps stick to what I know best.

In more recent times, I traded shares of NOL and made some money. I bought as its price went to a low of sub $1.00 but by $1.22, I had divested. The strength with which its share price broke out of what seems to be a range has taken me by surprise although there were signs that price could have found a floor, if not the bottom.

Even so, the entire upmove in the broader market has taken much more seasoned investors by surprise. Just when we thought …

LMIR: A slow and steady climb.

AK71 — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 02:50:00 +0000

LMIR’s unit price has been slowly and steadily climbing higher and this is netting me some handsome capital gains on the rights units from nil paid rights purchased not too long ago.

Remember I mentioned that LMIR was too cheap to sell? I still think it is too cheap to sell but it is approaching the fair value of 41c which I ascribed it back then. Technically, it is now also closing in on the next resistance level at 39.5c.

If it should break 39.5c convincingly, we could see resistance provided by the declining 20wMA at 41c tested next. 41c coincides with the fair value I have ascribed to the REIT’s unit price and I expect strong selling pressure if it should be tested.

I have done another partial divestment today at 39c, one bid away from the immediate resistance of 39.5c, taking some gains off the table. With this …

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: At $1.02 resistance.

AK71 — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 06:20:00 +0000

On 19 January, I mentioned that if sentiments remain bullish, we could possibly see resistance at $1.02 for the REIT’s unit price tested. My overnight sell orders at $1.015 and $1.02 were filled today.

Could the REIT’s unit price push higher? It could but anyone thinking of buying into the REIT now might want to bear in mind that the REIT goes XD on 3 February and we could possibly see the REIT’s unit price weakening then. Risk premium for going long is much higher now.

Momentum oscillators like the RSI and the Stochastics show the REIT to be very overbought and for a rather prolonged period by now. Only the MFI is not overbought.

The MFI takes into consideration price and volume and shows demand compared to the RSI. However, the MFI being where it is now is also the result of relatively low trading volumes.

Volume is the fuel …

First REIT: Partial divestment at 76.5c.

AK71 — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 05:06:00 +0000

First REIT never did test 80c after it went CD. The highest it touched was 78.5c. This morning, after it went XD, its unit price declined to a low of 76c.

I made a decision to divest units which I accumulated at 76.5c and 77c earlier last month in January. I managed to sell at 76.5c as 77c could once again assert itself as the immediate resistance.

Overall, I still make a gain as I would collect a DPU of 1.93c payable on 29 February on these divested units. Therefore, it has turned out rather decently as a trade.

When would I again add to my remaining long position in the REIT? …

Cambridge Industrial Trust: 4Q FY2011.

AK71 — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 03:18:00 +0000

Unit price of Cambridge Industrial Trust has been creeping upwards, probably in anticipation of the Trust going CD.

Total assets under management exceed $1b with recent revaluation of properties. This resulted in a lower gearing level apart from boosting NTA/unit to 62c. Year on year, gearing ratio has fallen from 34.7% to 33.1%. The REIT has no borrowings due until June 2014.

Interest cover ratio: 5.0x
Average land lease remaining: 36 years.

DPU increased quarter on quarter from 1.082c to 1.118c, representing an increase of 3.33%. Annualised, the distribution yield at 50c per unit is 8.94%.

The REIT will go XD on 6 February and the income distribution is payable on 29 February.

See presentation slides: here.

On 14 October 2011, I said that Cambridge Industrial Trust could be worth another look. That view has not changed.

See blog post here:
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Worth another …

Sabana REIT: Target BUY prices.

AK71 — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:50:00 +0000

A reader mentioned that Sabana REIT’s unit price has weakened to 88c after going XD. A further weakening in price could be an opportunity to accumulate. I have the same thought. After all, I divested a small portion of my investment in the REIT at 90c and 91c as its unit price rose in the last couple of weeks.

Question: What would be my target buy prices? Prices? Yes, I see stronger supports at 87c, 86c, 85c and 84.5c. So, I could possibly accumulate at these prices if they should be tested for support.

In a recent blog post, I said that Sabana REIT could possibly see a higher DPU in the next quarter. So, accumulating on weakness could be a very rewarding exercise. See blog post: here.

I would also pay attention to the momentum oscillators to see if the REIT is oversold at any point in time. …

Capitaland: Pushing higher on lower volume.

AK71 — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 12:26:00 +0000

Capitaland’s share price touched a high of $2.66 and closed at $2.65. Remember that I mentioned that in very bullish circumstances we could see $2.65 or even $2.75 tested? This is still valid.

I did a partial divestment at $2.65 today. If the following week should see price pushing higher, I would be happy to divest once more. $2.75? It could happen although I see the declining 200dMA now at $2.73. This could limit further appreciation in price. Although bulls could push past this resistance, it would surprise me (pleasantly) if price could close above the 200dMA. Why do I say this?

Look at the trading volume. It has been reducing. Indeed, volume is also lower this week as compared to last week. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and reducing volume could be an early signal of coming weakness in price. …

First REIT: FY2011 results.

AK71 — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:36:00 +0000

DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.93c which is another bumper distribution! The REIT will go XD on 1 February and the income distribution is payable on 29 February.

This includes distribution coming out of a portion of the total gains on divestment of the Adam Road property of about S$8.7 million.

Without such a return of capital, the DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.61c. Annualised DPU is, therefore, estimated to be 6.44c. To calculate a more realistic distribution yield, we have to use this number. At the unit price of 77c, we get a distribution yield of 8.36%.

NAV/unit: 80.5c
Gearing: 16%
Interest cover ratio: 12.3x

Technically, volume has been rising but price has plateaued at 77c which seems like a difficult resistance to overcome.

How would Mr. Market react to the REIT’s results? Could we see price action breaking resistance at 77c and going …

LMIR: Partial divestment at 38c.

AK71 — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:00:00 +0000

Anyone who made use of LMIR’s rights issue to accumulate more units would be in the money now.

I see immediate resistance for LMIR’s unit price at 38c and put in an overnight sell order for a partial divestment. It was filled today as unit price closed at 38.5c.

Fibo lines seem to suggest that in case of a retracement, we could see strong support at 34.5c. That is quite a bit to fall from here if it should be tested.

The strategy I have for LMIR is the same as the one for Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Hold a larger portion for regular income while trading a smaller portion for potential capital gains…

Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.

AK71 — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 11:35:00 +0000

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that immediate resistance for Sabana REIT is to be found at 91c. If this were to be taken out, we could see gap filling at 91.5c.

My sell order at 91c was filled today. Technically, if unit price should weaken when the REIT goes XD, we could see a decline to retest support which seems to be on a rising trendline. This would be in the region of 87c. That is a 4c difference if it should materialise.

As I have a large investment in the REIT and not forgetting that my primary aim of being vested is for income, I decided on divesting only a small portion (approximately 10% of total investment in the REIT) at resistance for a trade.

If the unit price should retest support, I would buy again. If unit price should go higher, I would also benefit from …

Towards a modern day good life.

AK71 — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 01:33:00 +0000

We have our own circumstances which make demands on our finances, time and energy. Often, we hear people saying that they do not have enough money, time or energy to do all the things they have to do or want to do. How do we work towards having the money, time and energy to have a modern day good life?

Finances:

How much something costs is quantifiable, of course. Although people might find themselves cash strapped at times or, for some, most of the time, I believe that any problem that can be solved with money is not insurmountable, within reason.

We can always think of ways in which to make more money. Get extra income from a second job, for example. We could also seek help in the form of a short term loan if it should be warranted. Of course, to ensure that the situation is rectified permanently, if at all possible, …

Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

AK71 — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:06:00 +0000

A DPU of 2.17c has been announced. This is a little lesser than my estimate of 2.2c. This is probably due to the fact that no rentals were collected for the property of 1 Tuas Avenue 4 in the months of November and December 2011. The manager is in advanced stage of negotiation with a party to rent the said property for a 10 year period. This, when completed, together with recent acquisitions should boost income and result in a higher DPU.

1, Tuas Avenue 4.

NAV per unit: $1.05.
Gearing: 34.1%.
Interest cover ratio: 7.4x
Average land lease expiry: 40.2 years.
(10.4% of the REIT’s land leases will expire between 2032 and 2036 while 7.3% will expire between 2037 and 2041.)

Sabana REIT managed to secure lower cost of funding for its newer loans at between 3.4% to 3.9% …

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.

AK71 — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 03:12:00 +0000

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT delivered a solid set of results with DPU at 2.6c. This is a 4% increase over the previous quarter.

As I was expecting a DPU of 2.5c with a possibility of a small reduction, this is good news indeed. It will go XD on 3 Feb and is payable on 20 Mar.

Upon completion of sale of 31 Admiralty Road for $16.438m, the REIT’s gearing would drop to 29.4%. The REIT had purchased this building for $13.4m. So, the REIT will recognise a gain and have gearing comfortably under 30% at the same time.

NAV per unit: $1.367
Interest cover ratio: 5.6x
Occupancy: 98.9%
Average land lease expiry: 41.9 years
(Only 10.9% of nett lettable area will see land lease expiry within the next 21 to 30 years).

The REIT has no debt due until …

FSL Trust: Reduced DPU to US0.10c.

AK71 — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 02:25:00 +0000

Mr. Market is showing displeasure with FSL Trust’s decision to reduce quarterly DPU from 0.95c to 0.1c. Its price has plunged more than 20% from the closing of 30c yesterday to 23c when I last looked.

Assuming an exchange rate of US$1 to S$1.30, the annualised distribution yield is about 2.2% per annum based on a unit price of 23c. Better than fixed deposit rates but as an investment, it is not very attractive.

However,…

Cache Logistics Trust: 4Q and FY2011 results.

AK71 — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:22:00 +0000

Cache Logistics Trust announced a good set of results.

Its recent acquisitions pushed distributable income upwards by some 9.2% while DPU increased to 2.1c. Annualised, distribution yield is 8.48% with unit price at 99c.

Net gearing: 29.6%.
NAV per unit: 91c.
Interest cover ratio: 8.0x

The CEO, Daniel Cerf, said that although new supply in warehouse space could come on board in late 2012 and 2014, existing demand should take up the new supply as good quality warehouse space is still in short supply in Singapore. (Source: The Straits Times, 19 January 2012).

Last month, I accumulated units of Cache Logistics Trust on weakness at 95c a unit. Those units were divested today at 99c when my overnight sell order was filled. The reason for selling? Technically, I see resistance at 99.5c and, for more than a week, unit price has plateaued at 99c.

In a rangebound situation, …

Capitaland: Partial divestment at $2.48.

AK71 — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:03:00 +0000

Just two days ago, on 17 January, I said that I see resistance at $2.48. I got this from the weekly chart as that was resistance provided by the declining 20wMA and the 138.2% Fibo line.

So, I put in an overnight sell order at $2.48 and it was filled later in the session today.

In very bullish circumstances, we could see $2.50 and $2.53 taken out with ease. With the formation of a long white candle on the back of very high volume, this could indeed be the case. The MACD has just crossed into positive territory and this signals the return of positive buying momentum…