Author: A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI)

AK71’s simple strategy.

What is my simple strategy? 按兵不动 – Hold our troops; bide our time. Collect regular dividends and wait for opportunities. We want to be in a position which would allow us to benefit from market weakness as well as strength. The way to do this is to stay invested in the market and also have a war chest ready. Opportunities to accumulate will always show themselves but without a war chest, it would be difficult to take advantage of them. Sometimes, doing nothing is also doing something...

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Wilmar: Should we be buying?

A reader asked me if I am buying more shares of Wilmar as I said before that the time to buy is when the selling has dried up. Has the selling dried up? Well, the trend is still obviously down and my investment is in the red. My long position in Wilmar is my biggest money losing investment on paper this year. However, I have bought more shares of Wilmar as the MACD is rising while share price declined. Momentum is still negative but with a rising MACD, the negative momentum is weakening. There is no obvious sign of accumulation or...

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Tea with AK71: Quick, buy a new car cheaper now!

It is reported that last weekend saw 5 to 20% more new cars sold in the showrooms here as COE premiums declined for the first time in months. We probably have friends and family members who are looking to buy a car for a host of reasons. Although some might think that cars are not necessary in Singapore, many would beg to differ. Finance manager Lionel Ng, 58, and his wife, 53, a homemaker, own a MPV vehicle which will be 10 years old in October. Yesterday, they took advantage of the lower COEs to purchase a Toyota Altis...

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Saizen REIT: 2H FY2012.

Thanks to its recent acquisitive activities, paying down of its loans and a strong JPY, Saizen REIT is able to declare a higher DPU of 0.63c for 2H FY2012. This is payable on 18 Sep. Therefore, the expected reduction in DPU of 10+% with the conversion of its warrants did not materialise and Mr. Market has shown his approval in the usual way as unit price of the REIT climbed higher today. Net gearing: 24% Interest cover ratio: 6x NAV/unit: 30c Annualising the DPU of 0.63c would give us 1.26c or a distribution yield of 7.875% at a unit price of 16c....

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Have a plan, your own plan.

As always, invest based on your risk comfort level. Remember that media headlines should not be what is driving your overall strategy and, instead, thoughtful analysis of your goals (and willingness to absorb pain in market down periods) is what is necessary for a successful investment strategy.   Decide which type of investor you are before you invest and make sure the overall strategy reflects your view of the world as well as the degree to which you can afford to be completely wrong. And always remember that no matter what you read, opinions change and strategists are fallible....

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The very first step to becoming richer.

Singaporeans have a reputation for being very good at complaining. This is not a bad thing per se. After all, if some things are really bad and in urgent need of correction, we should complain. How else would the relevant authorities know about the problems and to take action? I draw the line at taking videos and photos of minor incidents and posting it on Stomp! However, what I really find unacceptable is perfectly healthy and whole people complaining about how they do not make enough money. I have blogged about this before and I must say this again: If we feel that we...

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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Scrip dividend II.

I have been asked online and offline if I would be taking part in the Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) offered by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. The price is $1.2421 per unit. This is at a slight discount compared to the closing price of the REIT in the last session which was $1.27 per unit. The last DRP offered unitholders a price of $1.1622. Shortly after, the unit price plunged to hit a low of $1.085. Could we see a repeat of history? Could unit price plunge lower this time as well? I did not take part in the...

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Tea with AK71: Kwan Im Thong Hood Cho Temple.

As a boy, I used to visit the temple dedicated to the Goddess of Mercy on Waterloo Street regularly with my parents. During the very difficult years of the 1980s recession, we were even more regular. Till today, my dad would still visit regularly. Personally, I have not been to the temple in years. Today, I made use of the public holiday to visit the temple. I went through the usual routine of prayers and making a donation to the needy when I got there. A visit to the temple always sets my mind at ease, not because I think the...

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Good debt is always good?

I look at debt as a necessary evil. Sometimes, I need that extra help in order to buy something. Then, do I take as long as I can to repay the debt? Well, in this environment of very low interest rates, the concept of good debt has gained traction. Why not? The idea of good debt is appealing because it gives us more funds which could possibly generate higher returns than the interest paid on the borrowed funds. What is the catch here? Yes, only if we can use the funds to generate higher returns. The late Dennis Ng said...

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Wilmar: Touched a new low.

In the last session, Wilmar’s share price touched a new low of $3.18. Many market participants are wondering if they should go long here. Of course, conventional wisdom would say wait for the sellers to be done selling. So, are the sellers done selling? The OBV shows that distribution activity has not ceased. However, both MFI and MACD have not formed lower lows as compared to May 2012 when share price was higher but declining. Together, the technicals tell me that there are still sellers around but demand has picked up if only barely so. Technically very weak, we could see...

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China Minzhong: Pushing higher.

To any chart watchers, it is obvious that China Minzhong’s share price has broken out of resistance.  From here the immediate resistance is provided by the declining 100dMA which is currently at 73c. It could approximate 72c in the next few sessions. Overcoming the 100dMA could see a test of resistance provided by the 200dMA which is also declining but more gently so. The 200dMA is at 83c. The last time the 200dMA was tested was earlier this year in February. With all the momentum oscillators up sharply, the worst is over for China Minzhong’s share price, it would seem. MACD suggests...

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Sound Global: Retest of resistance likely

On 7 July, I said that the technicals suggested it could be time to sell Sound Global’s shares and that if price were to move higher, it would be a slow grind upwards. This picture has, essentially, stayed intact till now as its share price has been stuck at resistance, not being able to move convincingly above 61.5c, a many times tested resistance in the last few months. Mr. Market is feeling slightly bullish of late and, so, could his attention move to Sound Global? The company’s fundamentals are strong and with sentiments improving, there is a chance that its share price could...

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Saizen REIT: Beefing up distributable income.

Saizen REIT has been adding apartment buildings to its portfolio since resolving the CMBS for YK Shintoku. This will go some way to ameliorating the expected decline in DPU due to warrants exercised earlier. Since my blog post of 26 May 2012, Saizen REIT’s unit price has been rising gradually, hitting a high of 16c just two sessions ago. Mr. Market has recovered from his anxiety and is making up for over selling the REIT back in May, it seems. For anyone who has missed the boat and is thinking of jumping in now, I would say that the...

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LMIR: 2Q 2012 DPU 0.79c.

LMIR has increased distributable income, giving a distribution per unit (DPU) of 0.79c in 2Q 2012, payable on 30 August 2012. This an improvement over the DPU of 0.69c in 1Q 2012. Having said this, it is still lower than the 0.815c I estimated, post rights. LMIR has a gearing level of 9.3% (9.2% in 1Q 2012) and its interest cover ratio is 11.4x (13.3x in 1Q 2012).  There is plenty of debt headroom and I still believe that growth through further acquisitions is likely to be funded fully by debt and we could see DPU improving by a fair amount. Indonesia...

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Traffic accident with a Malaysian vehicle.

On Saturday night, while driving home on the PIE, there was an accident on the lane I was in. As I always make it a point not to follow too closely the vehicle in front of me when I drive, I was able to stop my car in time although the wet road surface from an earlier downpour made braking more hazardous. I was really pleased that my safe driving style paid off. However, that happiness lasted for only 3 or 4 seconds. There was a loud bang and I felt the impact as a motorcycle crashed into the...

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