Author: A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI)

SoundGlobal: Golden cross.

Are we about to see the formation of a true golden cross which is the bullish crossing of the 200dMA by the 100dMA? “A real, true golden cross — a very Japanese signal — occurs when a rising 100-day moving average crosses above a flat or rising 200-day moving average. It signals positive price action.” Goola Warden, The EDGE. The 200d MA in this case is still declining. So, the case for a true golden cross is weakened. Nonetheless, there seems to be longer term support with volume dwindling as price consolidation continues. Although there seems to be longer term support,...

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Tea with AK71: Learn a second language!

I remember a Caucasian lecturer from New Zealand telling me before that he wished he was bilingual. He only knew the English language and he didn’t think he was totally proficient in the language either. He said he thought the Singapore government did the right thing in schooling us in two languages. It seems that learning to speak a second langauge also makes us smarter if what I read in a magazine is to be believed. Bilingual children performed better than monolingual children in a series of tests that assessed ability to solve complex problems. This is according to...

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Wilmar: A nascent rebound.

A double bottom has formed on Wilmar’s daily chart. Volume lowered when price tested the bottom a second time at $4.86, suggesting a lack of interest in the counter by market participants. However, a rising MACD which completed a bullish crossover with the signal line suggests improving momentum although it is still in negative territory. What we could have is a rebound, if not a reversal. The resistance provided by the 20dMA kept the share price down yesterday but today, the counter traded above the 20dMA the entire session. If price should retreat and test the 20dMA at $4.95 for support, it...

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Low interest rates’ a double whammy for some.

Central banks in many large economies around the world are keeping interest rates really low, near zero in countries like the USA and Japan, in fact. Low interest rates are seen as the way to encourage economic growth by making borrowings cheaper. To revive their sickly economies, the relevant countries’ low interest rates could be instrumental. However, as money would go to where it is treated best, a lot of this cheap money is finding its way to Asia. Although the USA would like to see inflation in their economy, their money printing has also caused inflation in Asian economies. Declining value...

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CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

There is a rather obvious negative divergence between price and the MACD. Higher price was achieved with a lower high on the MACD recently. So, we should not be surprised if the share price should decline in the near future as positive momentum in the short term weakens. However, look at the OBV. There is no sign of smart money retreating as price rose. In fact, it is scaling higher. This suggests that smart money could use any price weakness as an opportunity to buy. Indeed, if we look at the weekly chart, there is no sign of a...

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Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Hot on the heels of my last blog post on property prices in Singapore and whether more cooling measures are on the way, I came across an article in TODAY which reported that HDB slammed PropertyGuru for inaccurately reporting that it is more affordable to buy a private property than a resale HDB flat. I am not really interested in their squabbles since it has no bearing on my life. However, I am interested in the last three paragraphs of the article, especially the last two which should put to rest any doubt about the government’s intention of driving down...

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More cooling measures on the way?

A friend told me that the middle class in Singapore is rich and they have plenty of money for investment. That is probably just a guess. So, I would also hazard a guess to say that many are probably leveraged up to invest in properties and that they are not all cash rich per se. Notice how it is new launches which are doing well? This is evident in January and Februarys’ sales figures. The resale market has gone very quiet. Why? Obviously, one reason is the initial financial outlay is smaller for new launches and payments are made progressively. If...

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Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (4).

For some time now, I have been saying it is better to be vested in industrial S-REITs rather than office S-REITs. My research supports this idea. Now, with the government imposing more cooling measures on residential properties, many investors turned their attention to industrial and commercial properties instead. This has hastened the rising prices of such properties. Indeed, when a relative of mine called to enquire about Low Keng Huat’s Paya Lebar Square, she was told that a modest office unit would set her back by $2,000 psf and the project was almost sold out! Is it a good idea to...

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Yongnam: Immediate support at 25c.

Yongnam’s share price has been rather stable. As a counter’s share price sees a reduction in volatility, Bollinger Bands would start to narrow and “squeeze”.  The beginning of such a squeeze is being observed here. Daily chart. A trading strategy using Bollinger Bands is to look out for an oncoming squeeze. This could be the precursor of an impending surge in price. Couple this observation with how the rising 50dMA seems capable of acting as support in this case, there is a chance of Yongnam’s share price going higher in time. The 50dMA also coincides with a trendline support which connects the lows...

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Capitaland: Technical analysis can be simple.

Some readers asked me if I could teach them technical analysis. I have always declined, saying that it is easy enough to pick up. There are many good books out there and many good websites where one could pick up technical analysis. Technical analysis can be quite simple. For example, this weekly chart for Capitaland shows the MACD rising in a wavelike pattern into positive territory. This means that longer term momentum has turned positive. It is also quite clear that price action broke out of a base formation and has seen a reversal in trend. Now, does technical analysis...

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CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

CapitaMalls Asia is paying 1.5c dividend per share on 9 May. It will go XD on 23 April. What is termed as a true golden cross is going to transpire in the daily chart. This is when the 100d MA forms a bullish crossover with the 200d MA. This is usually an indication that the downtrend is well and truly behind us and any pull back to support is an opportunity to add to or initiate long positions. A pull back could well happen. The rising price in recent session has not been accompanied by higher volumes. Indeed, the MACD might see a...

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Sabana REIT: Resistance to watch.

One month ago, I mentioned that Sabana REIT’s unit price saw higher lows formed since August 2011 and that it was repeatedly testing gap resistance at 91c and 91.5c. I wondered then whether its unit price could break resistance to go higher. It did, going on to break resistance at 93.5c, and, in the last few sessions, tested resistance at 95c. It ended the day at 96c a unit with a massive buy up after market closed today. Sabana REIT is my largest investment for passive income and what I have now is part of my core investment for passive income. So, it is unlikely...

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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: How much higher?

People are waking up to the stronger numbers as well as the attractive and potentially growing income streams of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. It is interesting also to note that some analysts are reporting that the REIT has not one but two strong sponsors. In the distant past, few would even talk about the REIT in a positive light, much less the sponsors. This shows how durable the negativities created by the recapitalisation of the former MI-REIT were. Personally, on hindsight, I am thankful for the negativities which made people avoid the REIT as it allowed me to accumulate more units of the...

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First REIT: To sell or not to sell?

I have received questions from readers and friends if they should sell their units in First REIT given its stellar performance of late. I can’t really advise if they should sell or hold on to their investments. I am not qualified to give advisories and neither do I have the inclination to do so. I would say the following: Fundamentally, First REIT is rock solid. One should, however, remember that its bumper income distributions in the last two quarters were due to contribution from the sale of its Adam Road property. If this contribution were removed, we are more likely to...

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China Minzhong: Initiated long position.

Anyone who is a follower of Jim Rogers would know that he is always asking people to become farmers and he is quite serious. Jim is of the opinion that farm incomes will increase exponentially in the next few decades. This stems partially from his belief that we should be invested in real assets like agricultural commodities which would retain their value in the face of heightened inflation around the world. Recently, I have been looking at China Minzhong, a company which the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) has a 17% stake in. Prudential reduced its stake to...

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