Author: A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI)

Economics 2012: Off the top of my head.

I have been doing more thinking. OK, so what’s new? In recent weeks, the stock markets rallied and with the strong closing on Wall Street last night, they look like they could move even higher next week. The bulls say that the tide has turned and things are moving higher from here and that we should buy stocks on pull backs. The bears say that what we have seen recently is just a bear market rally from oversold positions and that stock markets will see new lows in time. Both bulls and bears are looking into their crystal balls...

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Courage Marine: Chance to cut loss.

With the BDI sinking amidst a worsening situation of overcapacity and economic malaise in Europe, the rally in Courage Marine’s share price provided a chance for me to cut my long exposure with minimal losses. We are also blessed to have an industry insider, Jason, amongst the regular readers of ASSI and if the evidence provided is anything to go by, the bleak situation for bulk carriers looks set to worsen. Low: 662. Although Courage Marine entered the worsening state of affairs from a position of strength, it is unlikely to do better than the preceding year. In fact, for some,...

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NOL: Cutting losses on a strong rebound.

Months ago, I made an ill fated decision to go long in NOL. It was a decision based purely on TA and it was a trade that went awry. Straying from my tried and tested methodology of FA + TA plus a lack of a cut loss price has resulted in holding on to paper losses. I should perhaps stick to what I know best. In more recent times, I traded shares of NOL and made some money. I bought as its price went to a low of sub $1.00 but by $1.22, I had divested. The strength with which its share price broke...

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LMIR: A slow and steady climb.

LMIR’s unit price has been slowly and steadily climbing higher and this is netting me some handsome capital gains on the rights units from nil paid rights purchased not too long ago. Remember I mentioned that LMIR was too cheap to sell? I still think it is too cheap to sell but it is approaching the fair value of 41c which I ascribed it back then. Technically, it is now also closing in on the next resistance level at 39.5c. If it should break 39.5c convincingly, we could see resistance provided by the declining 20wMA at 41c tested next. 41c coincides with the...

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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: At $1.02 resistance.

On 19 January, I mentioned that if sentiments remain bullish, we could possibly see resistance at $1.02 for the REIT’s unit price tested. My overnight sell orders at $1.015 and $1.02 were filled today. Could the REIT’s unit price push higher? It could but anyone thinking of buying into the REIT now might want to bear in mind that the REIT goes XD on 3 February and we could possibly see the REIT’s unit price weakening then. Risk premium for going long is much higher now. Momentum oscillators like the RSI and the Stochastics show the REIT to be very...

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First REIT: Partial divestment at 76.5c.

First REIT never did test 80c after it went CD. The highest it touched was 78.5c. This morning, after it went XD, its unit price declined to a low of 76c. I made a decision to divest units which I accumulated at 76.5c and 77c earlier last month in January. I managed to sell at 76.5c as 77c could once again assert itself as the immediate resistance. Overall, I still make a gain as I would collect a DPU of 1.93c payable on 29 February on these divested units. Therefore, it has turned out rather decently as a trade. When would I again add...

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Cambridge Industrial Trust: 4Q FY2011.

Unit price of Cambridge Industrial Trust has been creeping upwards, probably in anticipation of the Trust going CD. Total assets under management exceed $1b with recent revaluation of properties. This resulted in a lower gearing level apart from boosting NTA/unit to 62c. Year on year, gearing ratio has fallen from 34.7% to 33.1%. The REIT has no borrowings due until June 2014. Interest cover ratio: 5.0x Average land lease remaining: 36 years. DPU increased quarter on quarter from 1.082c to 1.118c, representing an increase of 3.33%. Annualised, the distribution yield at 50c per unit is 8.94%. The REIT will go XD on...

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Sabana REIT: Target BUY prices.

A reader mentioned that Sabana REIT’s unit price has weakened to 88c after going XD. A further weakening in price could be an opportunity to accumulate. I have the same thought. After all, I divested a small portion of my investment in the REIT at 90c and 91c as its unit price rose in the last couple of weeks. Question: What would be my target buy prices? Prices? Yes, I see stronger supports at 87c, 86c, 85c and 84.5c. So, I could possibly accumulate at these prices if they should be tested for support. In a recent blog post,...

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Capitaland: Pushing higher on lower volume.

Capitaland’s share price touched a high of $2.66 and closed at $2.65. Remember that I mentioned that in very bullish circumstances we could see $2.65 or even $2.75 tested? This is still valid. I did a partial divestment at $2.65 today. If the following week should see price pushing higher, I would be happy to divest once more. $2.75? It could happen although I see the declining 200dMA now at $2.73. This could limit further appreciation in price. Although bulls could push past this resistance, it would surprise me (pleasantly) if price could close above the 200dMA. Why do...

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First REIT: FY2011 results.

DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.93c which is another bumper distribution! The REIT will go XD on 1 February and the income distribution is payable on 29 February. This includes distribution coming out of a portion of the total gains on divestment of the Adam Road property of about S$8.7 million. Without such a return of capital, the DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.61c. Annualised DPU is, therefore, estimated to be 6.44c. To calculate a more realistic distribution yield, we have to use this number. At the unit price of 77c, we get a distribution yield of 8.36%. NAV/unit: 80.5c Gearing: 16% Interest...

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LMIR: Partial divestment at 38c.

Anyone who made use of LMIR’s rights issue to accumulate more units would be in the money now. I see immediate resistance for LMIR’s unit price at 38c and put in an overnight sell order for a partial divestment. It was filled today as unit price closed at 38.5c. Fibo lines seem to suggest that in case of a retracement, we could see strong support at 34.5c. That is quite a bit to fall from here if it should be tested. The strategy I have for LMIR is the same as the one for Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial...

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Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that immediate resistance for Sabana REIT is to be found at 91c. If this were to be taken out, we could see gap filling at 91.5c. My sell order at 91c was filled today. Technically, if unit price should weaken when the REIT goes XD, we could see a decline to retest support which seems to be on a rising trendline. This would be in the region of 87c. That is a 4c difference if it should materialise. As I have a large investment in the REIT and not forgetting that my...

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Towards a modern day good life.

We have our own circumstances which make demands on our finances, time and energy. Often, we hear people saying that they do not have enough money, time or energy to do all the things they have to do or want to do. How do we work towards having the money, time and energy to have a modern day good life? Finances: How much something costs is quantifiable, of course. Although people might find themselves cash strapped at times or, for some, most of the time, I believe that any problem that can be solved with money is not insurmountable, within...

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Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

A DPU of 2.17c has been announced. This is a little lesser than my estimate of 2.2c. This is probably due to the fact that no rentals were collected for the property of 1 Tuas Avenue 4 in the months of November and December 2011. The manager is in advanced stage of negotiation with a party to rent the said property for a 10 year period. This, when completed, together with recent acquisitions should boost income and result in a higher DPU. 1, Tuas Avenue 4. NAV per unit: $1.05. Gearing: 34.1%. Interest cover ratio: 7.4x Average land lease expiry:...

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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT delivered a solid set of results with DPU at 2.6c. This is a 4% increase over the previous quarter. As I was expecting a DPU of 2.5c with a possibility of a small reduction, this is good news indeed. It will go XD on 3 Feb and is payable on 20 Mar. Upon completion of sale of 31 Admiralty Road for $16.438m, the REIT’s gearing would drop to 29.4%. The REIT had purchased this building for $13.4m. So, the REIT will recognise a gain and have gearing comfortably under 30% at the same time....

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