Author: A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI)

Saizen REIT: To buy or not to buy?

Regular readers would know my whole story with Saizen REIT. I remain invested in the REIT for various reasons which I believe are still valid. This blog post is to answer a question which I have received from readers, friends and family alike. Is it a good time to buy more units of Saizen REIT? This is a question which I would avoid giving a direct answer to. There is a great deal of subjectivity. However, I would present some numbers here and you decide. The annualised DPU is some 1.22c based on the last payout. At 13.6c a unit,...

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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Scrip Dividend.

I have yet to participate in any distribution reinvestment plans. I like to buy more units or shares at prices I deem fair or undervalued. Now, this is probably a subjective exercise but I like the fact that I have control over the purchase prices. When AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT announced that it would be offering a distribution reinvestment plan in April, I said that I would not be taking up the offer for two reasons: 1. I am investing for regular income and would like to have the quarterly distribution in cash. 2. I was not keen on...

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Charts: China Minzhong, Wilmar, Yongnam, Sabana REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

I have a friend who told me that he wants to buy more of China Minzhong at 50c. Why 50c? He can’t quite say. Anyway, at 50c, I would have lost almost half of my initial investment in the company… What does the chart say? Momentum is definitely negative and the MACD is still in decline. What is encouraging is the reducing volume over the last three sessions although it remains elevated. Today, a white spinning top was formed. Could this be a reversal signal? Well. the OBV is still in decline which suggests distribution is ongoing even as...

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Wilmar: Settling dust?

Bollinger bands are very popular in TA. Upper band acts as resistance and lower band acts as support. Look at Wilmar’s daily chart, we see that price has pushed past the lower band. This gives us a very bearish picture. Support is weak. It also tells us that the counter is deeply oversold but remember that in very bearish conditions, oversold can stay oversold. It really doesn’t say anything else. Conventional TA tells us that we should buy when price breaks the lower band. This is to take advantage of oversold conditions. The belief is that, eventually, price would...

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Saizen REIT: Acquisitions to increase DPU.

To me, there are only a few important points to note in the REIT’s latest presentation: 1. Management is on an acquisition path as this is probably the only way to increase DPU as it seems difficult to bump up occupancy of existing portfolio. Occupancy: 91.6%. 2. Potential dilution of DPU to the tune of 12% as warrants are exercised (if funds thus obtained are not put to productive use). 3. NAV per unit (adjusted for warrants): 29c 4. Gearing (adjusted for warrants): 21% 5. Interest cover ratio: 5.2x Assuming that the management is able to put funds from...

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NOL: Bleeding badly.

On 2 February, I cut losses on NOL as its share price rebounded believing that “shipping industry will face a chronic situation of oversupply and weakening demand this year and possibly the next.” Blow-out 1Q12 Net loss. Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported a 1Q2012 Net Loss of USD 253.6 mil, blowing away our already pessimistic FY2012 (read: full year) net loss estimates of USD 160 mil, not to mention consensus estimates of a FY2012 USD 31 mil loss. We maintain our SELL call on NOL and reduce our Target Price further to SGD 0.85 based on 0.8x forward P/B....

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Wilmar: Mr. Market reacts to weaker earnings.

Wilmar’s net profit for 1Q 2012 tumbled 34%, year on year. Mr. Market is showing his displeasure in the usual way. Let us draw some Fibo lines. I am using the high of 15 February at $6.05 and the low of 9 April at $4.76. I am doing this in my office and cannot post the chart here. So, you would have to do it yourself if you want to see the chart. It is interesting how price gapped down massively at the start of the trading session just now and hit the 138.2% Fibo line and bounced up. At this...

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Should have sold in May and gone away?

In The Straits Times and The Business Times today, there are at least three articles which mentioned “sell in May and go away” and whether it holds any water. Has anyone sold a large part or all of their investments in the last few trading sessions? Well, today, global stock markets retreated as the Greeks and the French elected new leaders into government. They are sick of austerity measures and they spoke with their votes! European debt story is still very much the key sentiment driver for global stock markets, it would seem. Asian markets and the euro slumped on Monday...

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LMIR: 1Q 2012 DPU 0.69c.

I remember saying that LMIR was too cheap to sell in December last year. It was trading at 36.5c a unit then. I also remember saying that unitholders should be more patient after the rights issue because the REIT’s DPU would bump up in time. The rather low DPU of 0.53c for 4Q 2011 would not be the norm. I estimated the norm to be a DPU of 0.815c per quarter or 3.26c per year. In fact, quarterly DPU could surprise on the upside in time. LMIR announced a higher DPU for 1Q 2012 as expected but the quantum of...

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Suntec REIT: Q1 2012 DPU 2.453c.

I still retain a small position in Suntec REIT at a cost price of about S$1.00 a unit which I purchased towards the tail end of the last financial crisis. This small position is free of cost, actually, since the gain from selling most of my investment in the REIT more than covers its cost. For me, this is what some would call a pillow stock. Sleep on it and get free money. Gearing: 37.4% Interest cover ratio: 4.2x Credit rating: Baa2 NAV/unit: $1.962 DPU: 2.453c (XD 30 April. Payable on 29 May.) Would I add to my long position or would...

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Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.

The REIT’s yield accretive purchases of five properties last year has helped to push DPU to 2.26c for 1Q 2012. Annualised, this would give us a DPU of 9.04c. Based on the REIT’s last closing price of 97.5 per unit, we are still looking at a distribution yield of more than 9%. 9.27% to be more exact. With a NAV/unit of $1.04, the REIT is still trading at a discount to NAV even though its unit price has risen significantly in the last few months. Gearing: 33.9%. Interest cover ratio: 5.5x. Occupancy: 96% to 98.4%. WALE: 2.6 years Weighted average...

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First REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 1.93c and a higher fair value?

First REIT has declared a DPU of 1.93c. The unit price of First REIT has been rising steadily. It is clear that Mr. Market is willing to pay a gradually higher price for the REIT’s units which leads me to wonder if we could see First REIT’s distribution yield compressing to 6% which would bring it closer to PLife REIT’s distribution yield which is currently under 6%. This could see the REIT’s unit price going to $1.06. When calculating distribution yield, I would rather use a DPU of 1.6c per quarter instead of 1.93c. Why? When we look at the numbers, we...

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SPH: Interim dividend of 7c per share.

SPH remains my largest investment in a blue chip. Over the years, it has been very good to me. Last year, I had hoped to buy more SPH shares if price should dip to $3.60 a piece but it never did. Clementi Mall. Singapore Press Holdings’ (SPH) 2QFY12 PATMI came in at S$83.9m, or 5 S-cents per share, which was 16% higher YoY. 1HFY12 PATMI now make up 46% of our full year forecast, falling short mainly due to lower investment income. 2QFY12 topline was S$298.5m – in-line with our expectations – and making up 50% of our full year forecast. An...

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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2012.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has declared a DPU of 2.7c for 4Q FY2012. Total DPU for FY2012 is, therefore, 10.45c. At the last session’s closing price of $1.185 a unit, this means a distribution yield of about 8.82%. The REIT goes XD on 2 May and will distribute income on 19 June. Gearing: 30% (which would drop to 28.8% upon completion of sale of 31 Admiralty Road). 25 properties revalued upwards and this probably helped to lower the REIT’s gearing. NAV/unit: $1.406. Interest cover ratio: 6.2x Occupancy: 99.2%. Weighted average land lease expiry: 41.7 years. Weighted average lease...

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FCOT: DPU up 16.8% in the last 18 months.

I did a piece on FCOT in October 2010 when I said that the REIT has probably turned the corner. At that time, it was trading at 15.5c a unit (which would have been 77.5c a unit, post consolidation). It closed at 87.5c in the last session. DPU was 0.5549c then (which would have been 2.7745c, post consolidation). FCOT has declared a DPU of 3.2423c for 1H FY12 which means that DPU has increased some 16.8% from 18 months ago. It will go XD on 25 April and income distribution will take place on 30 May. Annualised, we are looking at...

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