Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

UOL Analysis

The correction for UOL which started in January 2018 seems to be ended.     The above chart is UOL price performance since 1999.  An Elliott Wave Primary degree with wave (1) peak in 2007, the 2008 subprime GFC leads its to fall into wave (2) hitting the bottom in 2009 and from then on till January 2018 is wave (3).  A sub-level Intermediate degree for wave (3) can be seen nicely completed (1-2-3-4-5).  The correction since January 2018 is wave (4).  To ensure the Elliott Wave is valid, rules and guidelines are checked.   1. Wave (1) length...

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ComfortDelGro Analysis (2)

The Elliott Wave pattern for ComfortDelGro correction is one of those that could go either way from different perspective.  Hence, it is worth archiving it for future reference.     It is obvious the correction is unfolding into an ascending triangle correction.  However, the questionable part is the first drop from the peak.  The first drop looks develop into a 5-wave impulse (i-ii-iii-iv-v) highlighted in red in the chart.  Normally, if the wave A of the correction is a 5-wave impulse, it should be quite clear the correction will develop into a zigzag and the triangle being the wave...

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Creative Technology Analysis

Have been tracking Creative Technology since the price fell from $10.  Was curious then whether the correction from $10 followed any Elliott Wave pattern.  After all not all stocks’ price performance follow Elliott Wave.  Initially, it didn’t seem like it but as the correction progress from June 2018 onward, the pattern seems more and more following an Elliott Wave pattern. The above chart shows how the correction has been played out with a Double-three combination of zigzag – triangle and price action is at the end of the correction should it follow Elliott Wave. The first part of the...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (25)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (24) At this stage STI correction since end January 2018 has became very clear, in particular, should the Elliott Wave count to be correct, the correction should be coming to an end. Looking at the Primary degree of the Elliott Wave cycle, STI is displaying 2 possible scenarios The above chart is for the scenario whereby STI in undergoing an Intermediate degree Wave 4 (P3I4) correction where the Intermediate degree Wave 3 (P3I3) was completed in end of January 2018 at STI 3162.  In fact this is the...

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Genting Analysis

Genting has a big correction since hitting peak at $2.08 (price adjusted for dividend) on 8th Nov 2010 and that correction took 6 years to complete hitting the bottom at $0.602 (price adjusted for dividend) on 11th Feb 2016.  Since then it has embarked on a new up cycle.  This new cycle just completed the Wave (1) at $1.367 (price adjusted for dividend) on 24th Jan 2018.  Since then it went into Wave (2) correction and still ongoing.   From the Elliott Wave count, the correction is in the final stage after completing Wave A at $0.999 on 4th...

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ThaiBev Analysis (2)

Came across some online write up on Elliott Wave corrective structure guideline saying that the 5-wave in Wave A and C of the correction phase can be either an impulse or diagonal pattern (refer here).  On the other hand, the “official” Elliott Wave principle (Elliott Wave Principle — Frost and Prechter) does not mention of such a guideline.  With that guideline and revisit the analysis on ThaiBev, interesting observation was noted and hence worth the archive for it.     Above is the chart of the Elliott Wave analysis of ThaiBev correction since the start in Aug 2016.  Applying...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (24)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (23) Firstly, redefined some wave counts of the correction since end January 2018 to ensure the correction pattern conforms to standard Elliott Wave correction pattern. As a result of the redefined, the Elliott Wave Intermediate degree (Scenario 1 & 2.1) wave 4 correction is of 2 possible structures, an Expanded Flat (3-3-5) pattern OR a Flat-Zigzag double-three pattern.  This is due to the ongoing Minor Wave C yet to fully developed into a clear pattern which results in these 2 possibilities.  Actually, the Expanded Flat case was first mentioned on STI Analysis —...

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Portfolio — Aug 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Strategically increased CapitaR China Trust holding by 13.37% at $0 cost; reducing Strategic cost from $0.2249/unit to $0.2204/unit 2. Entitled to CapitaR China Trust scrip or cash dividend of 5.39 cents/unit 3. Received SingPost dividend of 0.5 cents/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.14 +82.93% +81.92% First REIT $0.5973 $1.29 +115.46% +111.22% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.07 +100.76% +22.58% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.53 -12.31% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.80 -19.21% +34.50% SingPost $1.0093 $1.15 +13.36% +47.77% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $1.99 +131.73% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.35 +49.83% +22.74% Frasers Cpt...

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ThaiBev Analysis

ThaiBev as observed is a very much talk about stock at the moment mainly because it has fallen from a high of about $0.985 in Aug 2016 to $0.64 on 24th Aug 2018, that is like a drop of about 65% already.  Has it reach bottom or still have some more downside ?  That probably is the most discussed about among the stock community now.  Apparently, most analysis came across is using Elliott Wave so here will be using Elliott Wave to analyze.   The above is the big picture regarding the amount of drop with respect to Fibonacci...

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Technology Stock Rally ? (2)

Continued from Technology Stock Rally ? Of the 6, Valuetronics is the strongest followed by Sunningdale Tech in term of bullishness.  The weakest UMS.  The rest I should say is a 50-50 case that they will turn bullish. That the last statement from the analysis done 1 week ago.  Let see how they turned out 1 week later. AEM It didn’t turn bullish but instead getting more bearish.  The rise finally stop not even touching bottom of the cloud.  The Tenkan line also failed to turn up and cut up the Kijun line.  The short-term GMMA did compress but...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (23)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (22) Not a good sign, that the comment on STI at the moment.  The continued selling and weakness has raised the possibility of invalidating the wave count that STI is in Minute wave 2 (P3I5M1M2).  In previous analysis mentioned that should STI fall below the 6th Jul 2018 low of 3176.26, it will invalidate the Scenario 1 and 2.1.  Have to retract that statement as it will not invalidate Scenario 1 and 2.1, it will just invalidate the wave count that STI is in P3I5M1M2 and back track...

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Technology Stock Rally ?

Past few days technology related stocks rebounded and outperformed the STI index, this has given people the impression that they are rally.  Now are they really rally or just a rebound from oversold ?  After looking at several of those stocks, I found mixed findings.  The TA tools I’m analyzing are Ichimoku and GMMA.  Main tool will be Ichimoku and GMMA is used to confirm the trend.  Elliott Wave is not used as not all stocks follow Elliott Wave. In Ichimoku, a bullish is defined by the following conditions :- 1. Tenkan (Conversion) line cut above Kijun (Base) line...

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A Decade of Blogging

Market Daily — 31st Jul 08 was the first post on this blog, That is to say I have actually blogged for a decade already.  I started this blog back in 2007 with the blog title “Patience Market Zone“, that why the URL to this blog is https://patiencemarketzone.blogspot.com/ rather than the same as the title now “ccloh Strategic Investor Zone”.  One need a lot of patience to be in stock market and that is how the initial title came about. I started the blog for only 1 reason back then, that is to provide stock market information to my clients. ...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (22)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (21) The failure of STI to breakout from 3340 meant STI still in Minute wave 2 (P3I5M1M2).  This has a potential downside of 3238 for a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.  However, looking at the volume on a down day, a 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement to 3211 look possible too.  Anything below 3211 raise the possibility of invalidation of Scenario 1 and 2.1.  The above is the optimistic view of Elliott Wave count of STI. The above chart is the pessimistic view for Elliott Wave count of STI.  The is the...

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ComfortDelGro Analysis

ComfortDelGro released its 2Q18 earning on 10th Aug 2018 with the headline as Revenue for the quarter increased by 5.4% (vs 2Q17) Group operating costs increased by 6.5% (vs 2Q17) Group operating profit fell by 2.1% (vs 2Q17) Net profit decreased by 5.5% (vs 2Q17) Not something fantastic or surprising as we saw drop in operating and net profit.  Some might deemed that as a set of negative result.  Now this is what it is stated in the 2Q18 earning report however if we took another perspective to analyze the result, things look totally different. The following is a...

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