Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

Going Forward Analysis

US midterm election is over with Democrats taking control of the House and Republicans retain the control of the Senate, a result that was largely expected.  The division going forward could bring some interesting events.  While most believe with the Democrats taking the House will not change anything to the ongoing US-China trade war, they are right and they are also wrong ! To the Democrats, they will not interfere with Trump’s foreign policy unless it is something deem too damaging to the nation.  The Democrats aim is to focus on domestic issues, the bread and butter issues facing...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (32)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (31) Before any update, there is something that was missed out in the previous analysis on the case of STI possible ended the correction at 2955.68.  This update will rectify that. Firstly, on the case that Elliott Wave count for the correction has not ended — the Red and the Grey as shown in the above chart, there isn’t any different in wave count from the previous analysis.  The rebound to 3121.27 on 2nd Nov 2018 is taken as M4 of the 5-wave diagonal of the 2nd 5...

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ComfortDelGro Analysis (3)

Continued from ComfortDelGro Analysis (2) Another index component stock that stick to Elliott Wave Fibonacci guideline very closely. ComfortDelGro completed a 5-wave Primary degree Elliott Wave, Cycle degree Wave 1, at $2.49 since the start in Dec 2017.  Currently it is in Cycle degree Wave 2 correction. Looking at the statistic for the 5-wave Primary degree Elliott Wave :- P0 = $1.806 P1 = $2.083 P2 = $1.873 P3 = $2.464 P4 = $2.22 P5 = $2.49 This will give the following Fibonacci ratio :- w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 2.134 : 0.975 w2 = 75.81%...

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OCBC Analysis (2)

Continued from OCBC Analysis and DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis A new development happened to OCBC price performance today. As shown from the chart above, OCBC hit an intra-day high of $11.21 and closed $11.15 today.  This level appears to be breakout from the downtrend channel with high volume.  Does that mean the Primary Wave 4, P4, correction for OCBC has ended at $10.36 on 30th Oct 2018 ?  Unfortunately, it is still uncertain until the price level moves to the a conclusive level.  However, do not rule out the possibility that it is too. This is a P4 correction, a...

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Portfolio — Oct 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received Kep Reit dividend of 1.36 cents/unit 2. Received First REIT dividend of 2.15 cents/unit 3. Received FrasersCom Trust dividend of 2.40 cents/unit 4. Entitled to MapletreeInd Trust scrip or cash dividend of 3.01 cents/unit 5. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 2.862 cents/unit 6. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.27 cents/unit   Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.11 +80.35% +81.92% First REIT $0.5973 $1.20 +100.43% +114.82% Genting SP $0.5314 $0.88 +65.02% +25.40% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.20 -16.76% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.48 -21.86% +34.50% SingPost $1.0093 $1.04 +2.46% +47.77%...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (31)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (30) Discovered something new that clear couple of doubts in previous wave count.  Hence, updating and redefining the present correction wave count. The above chart is the wave count for this S3C3P2 correction in the last analysis.  Intermediate degree Wave A, IA was formed at 3176.26 on 6th Jul 2018.  This led to Wave IB to be at 3347.98 on 7th Aug 2018 resulting in now in Wave IC doing a 5-wave diagonal to make the overall correction a 5-3-5 zigzag pattern.  However, there are couple of doubts...

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STI, Bear Market & Elliott Wave

STI fell to an intra-day low of 2955.68, that is like a drop of 18.84% from the high of 3641.65, less than 2% from entering a bear market.  As for why a drop of 20% is a de facto definition for bear market, that is questionable as far as concern but shall not be discussed here.  However, in Elliott Wave, there is only uptrend, downtrend, motive and corrective, no concept of bull or bear market.  Nevertheless since bull & bear market is like a standard term in stock market, let see whether there is any relationship between a bear...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (30)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (29) While looking at the wave count of the 3 local banks (refer here), discovered STI chart looks very similar to the 3 local banks.  That raise the possibility that the STI wave count leading to present correction might be incorrect.  That is instead STI Primary Wave 1 to peak in January 2018, it behaves like the 3 local banks that peaked in May 2018.  This is possible if taken into account of the Intermediate Wave 3 extension (similar to the 3 local banks) for the Primary Wave...

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DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis

The following is a Supercycle to Primary degree Elliott Wave analysis of the 3 local banks — DBS, OCBC and UOB.  It is not meant to analyze the detail present correction but rather as a guide of how their impact on STI in general.  Due to the weightage of the 3 local banks on STI, their price performance play a key role in determine the direction or trend of STI.  The process of deciding the Supercycle wave count shall not be covered and the stated will be the valid or highly possible one. DBS The following is the chart...

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Keppel Corp Analysis

While trying to avoid posting any Elliott Wave analysis on Keppel Corp as it is part of the investment portfolio, the finest and precision is almost a near perfect textbook scenario in its Elliott Wave analysis compared to rest of the listed stocks in SGX just worth archiving down.  Perhaps, there won’t be another listed stocks in SGX that have that kind education purpose. Firstly, need to look at Supercycle degree to determine which Supercycle it is currently in.  The usual criteria applies to eliminate and narrow down possibilities. 1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (29)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (28) Doing a rerun of the previous analysis as found to have committed several mistakes along the way.  The most prominent mistake was overlooking the Elliott Wave guideline, in particular the Fibonacci level, confusing the different Elliott Wave degree when counting forward.  Though guidelines are not rules and they may or may not be true, should start questioning when guidelines are not met.  By doing so, will prevent jumping in too early to conclude the wave count. From January to April 2018, STI has developed a Flat (3-3-5)...

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Creative Technology Analysis (3)

Continued from Creative Technology Analysis (2) As mentioned in Stock Incubator — Creative Technology blogging of any technical analysis shall be ceased so here will be the last post to summarize up all the analysis so far and what’s expect going forward. The recent weakness in global stock markets have in a way invalidate the previous wave count.  From the look of it, there are 2 possible wave counts. Wave Count 1 (Blue) Since the drop from $10, it has developed into a large ascending triangle with (a), (b), (c) and (d) of the triangle being formed.  The fall to...

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Stock Incubator — Creative Technology

Never have I invested in a stock in the past was first looking at its Technical Analysis instead of its fundamental.  Normally, the nature of the company’s business, the quality of the products or services being offered, the quality of management, etc will be the first few factors that will attract me to do more research on the company and determine is it worth to invest in.  However, for Creative Technology, this will be the first stock (and hopefully last) that I get attracted to initially is from the Technical Analysis of its price performance.  I was analyzing for...

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Genting Analysis (2)

Continued from Genting Analysis Price finally breakdown at $1.00, something that should not be surprising.  Before getting into the correction detail, Supercycle Elliott wave count is being analyzed using the following criteria. 1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession 2. Supercycle and Cycle degree corrective wave can occur in server weakness  in company or industry fundamental Wave Count 1 (Black) Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession.  Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2007 and Wave ((4)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  This...

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OCBC Analysis

OCBC still yet to get out of the correction that started in Apr 2018.  Its correction pattern brought out some interesting point for worthy of archiving. The above is the Supercycle degree Elliott Wave count. Supercycle Wave ((3)) = peaked in 1996 Supercycle Wave ((4)) = 1998 due to AFC Supercycle Wave ((5)) = peaked in 2000 Supercycle Wave ((C)) = 2003 due to dot.com bubble and recession in 2001 – 2003 new Supercycle Wave ((1)) = peaked in 2007 new Supercycle Wave ((2)) = 2009 due to 2008 GFC Now it is in the new Supercycle Wave ((3))...

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