Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (51)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (50) STI-2STI hit an intra-day low of 3084.08 on 15th Aug 2019 before rebound to close at 3115.03 on 16th Aug 2019.  Is 3084.08 the bottom for I2 correction in the STI-2 scenario ? The above was what being generated by the Correction Calculator previously to determine the possible ending point for I2.  In the previous analysis, 3075.50 was mentioned as one of the possible value and that is just 8.58 points away from the low on 15th Aug 2019. The above described the wave count for this...

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Singapore Economy Going Forward

Read a write up in this week The Edge Singapore titled “A New Growth Formula” as shown below To summarize this article was about Singapore economy is at a crossroads and still relying on the GDP as a measure of progress is no longer adequate.  Other yardsticks should be considered to measure the progress. After reading this article, it reminded me of a blog I wrote in 7th Oct 2015 (Singapore Economy — Looking Ahead).  The main point of that post was since 2010 I already felt something was not right in the Singapore economic growth model and what...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (50)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (49) STI-2STI ended at 3261.11 on 2nd Aug 2019 hitting an intra-day low of 3257.38, the lowest level since the gap up on 18th Jun 2019.  Most would probably say it is trying to cover the gap.  Unfortunately, for Elliott wave principle, there isn’t any concept of gap covering.  For this scenario STI-2, STI is now doing Intermediate degree wave 2 (I2) correction after hitting the peak of 3415.18 on 29th Apr 2019 forming the end of Intermediate degree wave 1 (a leading diagonal instead of the usual...

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Portfolio — Jul 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Received Kep Reit dividend of 1.39 cents/unit2. Received Kep DC Reit dividend of 3.85 cents/unit3. Received Kep Corp dividend of 8 cents/share4. Entitled to FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.40 cents/unit5. Received Mapletreelog Trust dividend of 2.025 cents/unit6. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.92 cents/unit7. Received MapletreeInd Trust dividend of 3.10 cents/unit8. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 1.091 cents/unit9. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.31 cents/unit10. Received SingPost dividend of 2 cents/share11. Received SIA dividend of 22 cents/shareStock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.62 +124.21% +90.76%...

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SPH — All Times Low Since 1998 !!!

Chanced upon an article on 26th Jul 2019 titled SPH’s shares drop to a 25-year low, becomes worst performer on MSCI Singapore.  Went to bring up the price chart and this is what was found. The only historical price data I’ve was from 1998, anything prior to that I do not have.  Maybe SPH wasn’t listed on SGX prior to that.  Nevertheless, since 1998 till now that is 21 years and indeed the price of $2.22 — intra-day on 26th Jul 2019 was even lower than the low in 2009 of $2.40 due to the global financial crisis.  All times...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (49)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (48) With US markets kept scaling new high, STI might be biased towards the upside for the time being.  However, the bigger still remain intact for both scenario STI-2 and STI-N. STI-2With reference to the Correction Calculator as shown previously, reproduced below. As long as 3534.039 is not broken, STI still can be remained in the I2 corrective phase.  The present upside momentum could be the wave B for the I2 corrective phase.  It is only a breakout from 35334.039 then the I2 wave can be affirmed of...

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Journey To Retirement Part 16.1 — Frasers Centrepoint Trust

On 16th May 2019, Frasers Centrepoint Trust made an announcement on acquisition of a 33.33% interest in Waterway Point and equity fund rising (private placement and preferential offering) of no less than approximately S$421.7 million to be used in the acquisition.  The private placement price was S$2.382/unit and preferential offering which retail investors get to involve was S$2.35/unit. Like what was mentioned in Journey To Retirement Part 16 — Frasers Centrepoint Trust, one of the potential upside for the stock is acquisition of Waterway Point and three years after that the objective has been met. When I first invested...

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Corporate Result — Jul/Aug 2019

1. SPH REIT  —  11th Jul 20192. SPH  —  12th Jul 20193. Kep Infra Trust  — 15th Jul 20194. Kep Reit  —  15th Jul 20195. Kep-KBS US Reit  —  16th Jul 20196. Kep DC Reit  —  15th Jul 20197. Kep Corp  —  18th Jul 20198. MapletreeInd Trust  —  23rd Jul 20199. MapletreeCom Trust  —  25th Jul 201910. Cache  —  25th Jul 201911. SGX  —  31st Jul...

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Portfolio — Jun 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Received MapletreeInd Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 0.71%, reducing cost from $0.8201 to $0.81432. Received Mapletreelog Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.31%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2157/share to $0.2151/share3. Received Frasers Cpt Trust preferential offering at $2.35/unit, increasing holding by 60%, increasing holding price from $1.6314 to $1.9021.4. Cash reduced from +33.13% to +31.36% due to subscription of Frasers Cpt Trust preferential offering.Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.63 +125.07% +88.24% First REIT $0.5973 $1.03 +72.03% +122.02% Genting SP $0.5314 $0.92 +72.53% +29.17% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.66 -10.56%...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (48)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (47) STI-2STI rebounded since hitting the low at 3104.03 on 3rd Jun 2019 and this shall be the Minor wave B of the Intermediate wave 2 correction as shown. The question now is how much more upside can this wave B goes.  According to Elliott Wave guideline, depending on the pattern of wave B, it can rebound from 23.6% to 138.2% Fibonacci ratio with respect to wave A. Above is the data generated by the Correction Calculator for all the possible wave B and wave C targets.  STI...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (47)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (46) In the previous analysis, 2 scenarios were mentioned STI-2 and STI-N. STI-2STI-2 describes STI has completed an Intermediate degree wave 1 forming a leading diagonal pattern.  The Elliott Wave Degree Calculator as shown in the last analysis is reproduced as followed An interesting point is the calculated value of Intermediate wave 2 is 3112.08 and STI hit an intra-day low of 3110.51 on 31st May 2019.  So is 3110.51 the bottom of the current correction ?  From data perspective it does appear so but if looks into...

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Portfolio — May 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Entitled to Mapletreelog Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.024 cents/unit2. Received Frasers Cpt Trust advanced distribution of 1.89 cents/unit3. Received FrasersCom Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.63%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2164/share to $0.2157/shareStock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.41 +106.14% +88.24% First REIT $0.5973 $1.00 +67.02% +122.02% Genting SP $0.5314 $0.87 +63.13% +29.17% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.03 -19.05% +46.00% SIA $12.0697 $9.11 -24.93% +35.17% SingPost $1.0093 $0.925 -8.93% +48.76% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8201 $2.11 +155.88% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.56 +73.23% +26.87% Frasers Cpt Trust $1.6314 $2.42...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (46)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (45) By now it should not be in doubt that global markets are in a state of correction.  From Elliott wave perspective correction is not just an opportunity to bargain hunt or accumulate but also a state whereby possibilities could be eliminated or firmed up based on wave count rules.  The present STI correction is an opportunity to re-examine all the possible wave counts in the past to determine their validity. STI-0This is the case whereby 2955.68 is considered Primary wave 2 of Cycle wave 3 of the...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (45)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (44) STI plummeted today to an intra-day low of 3270.22 from 3392.29 and closed 3290.62 for the day.  That was a drop of 101.67 points or 2.99% in a single day.  Surprising ? Unexpected ?  Well not really if one follows Elliott wave analysis as the drop is something expected all along. Recap previous Elliott wave calculation done by the Degree Calculator as shown below STI is now in the Minor wave 3 which started from 3156.79 and a projected calculated target of 3668.461 to end the Minor...

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Portfolio — Apr 2019

Investment Portfolio 1. Received First REIT dividend of 2.15 cents/unit2. Received Kep REIT dividend of 1.39 cents/unit3. Entitled to MapletreeInd Trust scrip or cash dividend of 1.37 cents/unit4. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.31 cents/unit5. Entitled to FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.40 cents/unit6. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.88 cents/unit7. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 3.137 cents/unit8. Received Kep Corp dividend of 15 cents/share9. Received Genting SP dividend of 2 cents/shareStock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.42 +107.02% +88.24% First REIT $0.5973 $0.97 +62.01% +122.02% Genting SP $0.5314...

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