Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

Stock Incubator — Valuetronics, the Sell Down

Stock price of Valuetronics has taken a tumble since 20th April 2018 and fiercely sold down on 26th April 2018 due to reaction of one of its major client, a Dutch MNC reporting sub-par sales performance from its smart home lighting division, mainly in the US. However, it also mentioned the sales should normalize in the second half of the year upon inventory destocking.  Then on 27th April 2018, the sell down continued with the stock hitting an intra-day low of $0.64 before closing at $0.68, back to the price level a year ago. Valuetronics is one of the...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (XII)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (XI) Like mentioned in the last 2 analysis considered correction case closed and today STI breakout of the downtrend channel more or less confirm that.  Another interesting fact is since hitting 3,340 on 4th April 2018 till now, there are 10 trading days and of the 10 trading days, 7 days STI closed positive while the other 3 were in the red.  This exactly fits what I have mentioned in the previous analysis about the 3-2 method, in the period of 5 trading days 3 days up and...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (XI)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (X) Not going to say about the present correction despite STI dropped to 3340 on 4th April 2018, a new low than the 3377 on 9th February 2018.  Whether there is still some downside (the lower trendline), the concern that STI has moved below the 200d MA or other technical indicators indicating more downside, the case is closed for current correction as far as it is concerned.  STI moving below 200d MA or any other technical indicators showing bearish last week can easily be reversed the next week. ...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (X)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IX) The following chart shows the current correction wave count There was a wave 1-2-3-4-5 structure for the wave ((Y)) after the rebound today.  As such, the possibility that wave ((Y)) has completed, that is current correction based on wave count has ended yesterday.  Another interesting fact about the wave ((Y)) is the length ratio of wave 1 : wave 3 : wave 5 turns out to be 1 : 1.618x (about there) : 1, a very textbook case for the 5 waves structure.  Though through the wave...

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Portfolio — Mar 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received FrasersCom Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 5.57%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2347/share to $0.2319/share 2. Strategically increased Mapletreelog Trust holding by 5%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2319/share to $0.2295/share 3. Strategically increased MapletreeCom Trust holding by 10.84%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2295/share to $0.2249/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.08 +77.77% +77.11% First REIT $0.5973 $1.38 +130.49% +104.03% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.08 +102.64% +18.82% KepCorp $7.4156 $7.77 +4.41% +40.06% SIA $12.0697 $10.84 -10.60% +32.02% SingPost $1.0093 $1.37 +35.14% +45.30% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $2.03 +136.41% +65.57% Kep...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IX)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough (VIII) ? A very eventful week for the global markets and based on STI reaction it seemed to be go back to square one.  As such this has reopened up all the possible scenarios going forward.  Before listing those highly possible scenarios based on how STI has progressed since the bottom in 2016, one thing to be confirmed is STI is in Primary degree Wave 3. 1. Intermediate Wave 3 Ongoing This is the scenario mentioned in STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VIII), STI is doing...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VIII)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VII) In the previous analysis I pointed out STI could still be in the Intermediate degree Wave 1 of Primary degree Wave 3 coupled with other possible scenarios.  Though the case of still in Intermediate Wave 1 still valid and no evidences to invalidate, one of the other possible scenarios seems to be more fitting from the way STI progresses as of now. The following chart shows this possible scenario. From the chart, the blue channel (temporary) is the Primary degree Wave 3 and that cannot be wrong...

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Elliott Wave on Stock

Elliott Wave can use to analyze market indices and stocks but not all stocks behave in Elliott Wave structure.  As such most analysis you can find are done on market indices.  That doesn’t mean we don’t use Elliott Wave to analyze stock performance. The following is a stock (stock name not display) that was listed on SGX market in 2003.  Since then till now, the price movement (with price adjustment for corporate action such as dividend) follows Elliott Wave nicely. From 2003 to 2007 was Elliott Wave 1 of Primary degree   From 2007 to 2008 was Elliott Wave 2...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VII)

Continuous from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VI) Looking at the way STI has developed since the peak in late January till now, I sense there is something wrong in my previous analysis since then till now.  Have to backtrack and go back to basic to find out where things start to go wrong. So far, STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ?, STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (II) and STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (III) have been correct as none of the Elliott Wave...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (V)

Continuous from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IV) Like mentioned in previous analysis (refer above link), STI rebounded on the week started 12th February 2018 as according to what Elliott Wave predicted.  However, the pattern for this correction (corrective wave (ABC or WXY) for Minor degree or wave 2 for Intermediate degree) is yet to confirm.  At the moment the possibilities are :- 1. simple zigzag (A-B-C) 2. simple flat (W-X-Y) 3. triangle (A-B-C-D-E) 4. combination — double three, double zigzag, etc (W-X-Y) IF we are treating this correction as a simple zigzag and the...

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Portfolio — Feb 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received CapitaR China Trust dividend of 0.83 cents/share (not update) 2. Received SingPost dividend of 0.50 cents/share 3. Strategically increased holding of MapletreeCom Trust by 12.16% at $0, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2398/share to $0.2347/share 4. Received Kep Reit cash dividend of 1.43 cents/share 5. Received First Reit scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.57%, reducing holding price from $0.6067 to $0.5973 Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.02 +72.61% +77.11% First REIT $0.5973 $1.36 +127.15% +104.03% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.16 +117.68% +18.82% KepCorp $7.4156 $8.02 +7.78% +40.06% SIA $12.0697...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VI)

Continued from previous analysis, STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (V) Firstly, I have to rule out the possibility of a flat and triangle correction in the previous analysis.  This means for this Minor degree Elliott Wave correction it will be a simple zigzag, a combination still possible with the first pattern of a zigzag and lastly a double zigzag pattern.  However, for the latter two, I can see low possibility of happening simply because the time frame would be over stretched for those to happen given that it is a Minor degree Elliott Wave.  Ruling...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IV)

A continuous from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (III). Global markets were on a sharp fall since the start of this month with US markets having probably the worst wild ride on an intra-day basis since the 2008 GFC.  FTSE STI was not spared either with the selling and the drop.  With the close of 3,377.24 on 9th Feb 2018, STI practically gave back all the gain its has since the start of the year and ended into the red YTD.  Alarming ? Shocking ? Fearing ? Panicking ? Unfortunately, the answer is NO, as...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (III)

The previous 2 analysis (refer here and here) were research on when the current Elliott Wave cycle which started in 2009 will hit its peak and when will be the next trough — the start of another Elliott Wave cycle of Primary degree.  Having that timeframe being worked out — potentially peak at 2018 or 2019, another financial crisis and recession in 2019 or 2020 and finally the trough at 2020 or 2021, this framework shall be used to analysis for potential peak value for this Elliott Wave cycle. Have mentioned before STI is now in the wave 3...

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