Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

Recap 2017 & Looking Ahead 2018

Global markets ended the year 2017 with a gain of almost 20% and FTSE STI was up 18.13% for the same period.  It was nevertheless a very good year for global stock markets with many believe the bull market since 2009 recovery of the GFC was back and expecting more good years ahead. Recap As mentioned in Recap 2016 & Looking Ahead 2017, 2017 was all about execution and how markets react to those.  US Fed did what was being projected to do in end of 2016 that was to hike rate 3 times so nothing surprise about it...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (II)

Managed to get a STI chart that started from 1980 so the missing portion from 1980 to 1987 in my previous analysis (STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ?) can now fit in to make a better analysis. Previously, with only chart started from 1987 and given that 1987 was the big market crash, the famous Black Monday, my assumption was that was the bottom of an Elliott Wave cycle.  Now with chart data started from 1980, it was observed that the 1986 low, the market low after the 1985 recession, was even lower than 1987 low. ...

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Strategic Investor 2017 Review

FTSE STI ended the year 2017 at 3,402.92 compared with 2880.76 a year ago, representing a gain of 522.16 points or 18.13%.  It was perhaps a bumper year for most investors in Singapore market or rather for global markets.  The following table summarized my investment portfolio for 2017 vs portfolio for 2016. 2017 2016 Variant Non-Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss    +68.72%    +45.19%    +52.07% Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss    +21.29%    +11.63%    +83.06% Portfolio Unrealized Gain/Loss    +55.19%    +37.84%    +45.85% Realized Gain/Loss    +10.27%    +10.73%    -4.29% Dividend Return    +49.55%    +46.61%    +6.31% Cash...

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STI Analysis — 1st Jan 2018

Like many investors or traders wanting to know when FTSE STI will peak and when will the crash eventually come, I have to analyze the market in every possible aspects to “estimate” or “predict” that.  My past analysis which started in January 2016, March 2016, April 2016, May 2016, May 2017, August 2017, October 2017 and December 2017 unfortunately were unable to provide any clue as those analysis was done on that uptrend since the drop in 2016.  To have a more reliable or precise analysis I have to look at the bigger picture and it really took me some...

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STI Analysis — 20th Dec 2017

Seems like the analysis I did on 7th Oct 2017 citing STI is in the wave 5 of the uptrend could be wrong.  With STI dropping below 3,4000 level today and its PE still nowhere near the bubble stage, it is rather difficult to convince STI is in the wave 5 of the uptrend.  As such, another analysis was done as shown in the following figure.   The above figure shows that instead of wave 5, STI probably just completed wave 3 with 3,468 as its peak.  As such, the current descend is the wave 4.  The different between...

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Portfolio — Oct 2017

Investment Portfolio 1. Increased Mapletreelog Trust holding by 140.96% due to the preferential offering of 1 for 10 @ $1.145, hence Strategic cost increased from $0.1358/share to $0.2706/share 2. Entitled to Kep REIT scrip or cash dividend of 1.40 cents/share 3. Entitled to FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.4070 cents/share 4. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.78 cents/share 5. Received First REIT dividend of 2.14 cents/share 6. Received MapletreeInd Trust dividend of 3 cents/share 7. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 2.97 cents/share 8. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.24 cents/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized...

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STI Analysis — 7th Oct 2017

Following up the market analysis on 19th Aug 2017, we can pretty much confirm one thing, that is, the commence of wave 5. A picture speaks a thousand words, not going to say much about it but from the chart above clearly illustrated how FTSE STI moved since the crash in 2016 after hitting the high in 2015.  The yellow region pretty much confirmed wave 4 has completed.  Now the next question is how high this wave 5 going to be.  Should it unable to break 3,500 then the current uptrend is just a continuous of the crash since...

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Portfolio — Sep 2017

Investment Portfolio 1. Entitled to Mapletreelog Trust advanced distribution of 1.706 cents/unit and preferential offering of 1 for 10 @ $1.145 2. Strategically increasing holding of Mapletreelog Trust by 13.70% at $0, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2013/share to $0.1986/share 3. Received scrip dividend, increasing holding by 36.20%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.1986/share to $0.1889/share 4. Strategically reduce the cost of Strategic section from $0.1889/share to $0.1358/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.00 +70.89% +72.22% First REIT $0.6067 $1.335 +119.54% +100.50% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.17 +119.56% +18.82% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.49 -12.85% +40.06%...

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Corporate Result — Oct/Nov 2017

1.  SPH Reit  —  9th Oct 2017 2.  SPH  —  11th Oct 2017 3.  M1  —  16th Oct 2017 4.  Kep DC Reit  —  16th Oct 2017 5.  Kep Infra Trust  —  16th Oct 2017 6.  Kep Reit  —  17th Oct 2017 7.  Kep T&T  —  17th Oct 2017 8.  Kep Corp  —  19th Oct 2017 9.  FrasersCom Trust  —  20th Oct 2017 10.  MapletreeGCC Trust  —  20th Oct 2017 11.  MapletreeInd Trust  —  24th Oct 2017 12.  Cache  —  24th Oct 2017 13.  FrasersCT  —  25th Oct 2017 14.  MapletreeCom Trust  —  25th Oct 2017 15.  SGX  —...

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SPH — A No No For Me……….

I seldom blog about stocks that I do not hold be it just purely technical analysis or value/fundamental analysis.  Days ago, a friend of mine contacted me to ask about advise of SPH, to cut loss or continue to hold.  Then again, I also came across people in forums, blogs etc showed eagerness to bargain hunt given the price has fallen so much.  Then I figured out that by blogging down why SPH is a no no investment for me (as an archive) can be served as a good learning lesson (for me) as in the future I could...

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The Push For Smart Nation But………..

On 7th Sep 2017, Razer CEO posted on his facebook page regarding the submission of the e-payment proposal and the execute summary of that can be read from here.  On 25th Aug 2017, I posted on my facebook page to my friends regarding what the e-payment system should be for Singapore to adopt, below is the copy and paste of the exact word I’ve written (sorry no link to my facebook page as I prefer to keep it private) :- on the cashless e-payment system that we are looking into. the proper and best solution or implementation is not...

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Portfolio — Aug 2017

Investment Portfolio 1. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.23 cents/share 2. Entitled CapitaR China Trust scrip of cash dividend of 5.36 cents/share 3. Received Genting SP dividend of 1.5 cents/share 4. Received SingPost dividend of 0.5 cents/share 5. Received FrasersCom Trust scrip dividend, increasing holding by 12.20%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2116/share to $0.2055/share 6. Received Kep REIT scrip dividend, increasing holding by 8.39%, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2055/share to $0.2013/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.17 +85.52% +72.22% First REIT $0.6067 $1.33 +118.71% +100.50% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.185 +122.39% +18.82%...

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STI Analysis — 19th Aug 2017

FTSE STI closed 3,251.99 on 18th Aug 2017, up 12.89% YTD.  In the previous analysis (STI Analysis on 12th May 2017), I mentioned that STI was in wave 3 of the up wave started from February 2016 and from the performance of the past few days, STI could be starting on the corrective wave 4 already. In the analysis dated April 2016 (What’s Next For STI ?), an expected termination point for wave 3 according to Elliott Wave analysis is 3,392 and the recent high for STI was on 27th Jul 2017 clocking a close at 3,354.71, a mere...

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Portfolio — Jul 2017

Investment Portfolio 1. Strategically increase Kep Reit holding by 6.19% at $0 cost, reducing Strategic section cost from $0.0323/share to $0.0318/share 2. Received Kep DC Reit dividend of 3.63 cents/share 3. Received First Reit dividend of 2.14 cents/share 4. Entitled Kep Reit scrip or cash dividend of 1.42 cents/share 5. Received Kep Corp dividend of 8 cents/share 6. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.75 cents/share 7. Received Mapletreelog Trust dividend of 1.887 cents/share 8. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 3.00 cents/share 9. Entitled FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.3979 cents/share 10. Received SingPost dividend of 0.5...

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Journey To Retirement Part 2.3 — First REIT

I did it, yes, I did it, the day I’ve been waiting for since 2007.  What ? Dividend collected equals the amount of capital I’ve invested in initially and that is to say it is now mathematically impossible to lose money on this investment ! Well this is not the first stock that I’ve achieved mathematical impossible to lose money status (the other 2 are First Reit with CPFIS in 2015 and Nordic Group in 2017) but unlike the other 2, this one is purely do nothing by just collecting dividend throughout the years.  And what a way to...

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