Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis

The following is a Supercycle to Primary degree Elliott Wave analysis of the 3 local banks — DBS, OCBC and UOB.  It is not meant to analyze the detail present correction but rather as a guide of how their impact on STI in general.  Due to the weightage of the 3 local banks on STI, their price performance play a key role in determine the direction or trend of STI.  The process of deciding the Supercycle wave count shall not be covered and the stated will be the valid or highly possible one. DBS The following is the chart...

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Keppel Corp Analysis

While trying to avoid posting any Elliott Wave analysis on Keppel Corp as it is part of the investment portfolio, the finest and precision is almost a near perfect textbook scenario in its Elliott Wave analysis compared to rest of the listed stocks in SGX just worth archiving down.  Perhaps, there won’t be another listed stocks in SGX that have that kind education purpose. Firstly, need to look at Supercycle degree to determine which Supercycle it is currently in.  The usual criteria applies to eliminate and narrow down possibilities. 1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession...

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Creative Technology Analysis (3)

Continued from Creative Technology Analysis (2) As mentioned in Stock Incubator — Creative Technology blogging of any technical analysis shall be ceased so here will be the last post to summarize up all the analysis so far and what’s expect going forward. The recent weakness in global stock markets have in a way invalidate the previous wave count.  From the look of it, there are 2 possible wave counts. Wave Count 1 (Blue) Since the drop from $10, it has developed into a large ascending triangle with (a), (b), (c) and (d) of the triangle being formed.  The fall to...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (29)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (28) Doing a rerun of the previous analysis as found to have committed several mistakes along the way.  The most prominent mistake was overlooking the Elliott Wave guideline, in particular the Fibonacci level, confusing the different Elliott Wave degree when counting forward.  Though guidelines are not rules and they may or may not be true, should start questioning when guidelines are not met.  By doing so, will prevent jumping in too early to conclude the wave count. From January to April 2018, STI has developed a Flat (3-3-5)...

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Stock Incubator — Creative Technology

Never have I invested in a stock in the past was first looking at its Technical Analysis instead of its fundamental.  Normally, the nature of the company’s business, the quality of the products or services being offered, the quality of management, etc will be the first few factors that will attract me to do more research on the company and determine is it worth to invest in.  However, for Creative Technology, this will be the first stock (and hopefully last) that I get attracted to initially is from the Technical Analysis of its price performance.  I was analyzing for...

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Genting Analysis (2)

Continued from Genting Analysis Price finally breakdown at $1.00, something that should not be surprising.  Before getting into the correction detail, Supercycle Elliott wave count is being analyzed using the following criteria. 1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession 2. Supercycle and Cycle degree corrective wave can occur in server weakness  in company or industry fundamental Wave Count 1 (Black) Supercycle Wave ((1)) peaked in 2002 and Supercycle Wave ((2)) ended in 2003 due to SARS and economic recession.  Supercycle Wave ((3)) peaked in 2007 and Wave ((4)) ended in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  This...

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OCBC Analysis

OCBC still yet to get out of the correction that started in Apr 2018.  Its correction pattern brought out some interesting point for worthy of archiving. The above is the Supercycle degree Elliott Wave count. Supercycle Wave ((3)) = peaked in 1996 Supercycle Wave ((4)) = 1998 due to AFC Supercycle Wave ((5)) = peaked in 2000 Supercycle Wave ((C)) = 2003 due to dot.com bubble and recession in 2001 – 2003 new Supercycle Wave ((1)) = peaked in 2007 new Supercycle Wave ((2)) = 2009 due to 2008 GFC Now it is in the new Supercycle Wave ((3))...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (28)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (27) The drop in HSI yesterday has invalidated the Elliott wave count that it has ended the correction since January 2018.  Indicating HSI still in that correction wave.  As such, perhaps it is time to re-look STI wave count.  From past analysis it was concluded that the correction wave count ended last month at 3110.79.  The current pull back is the post-correction Wave 2.  However, this wave count can be invalidated if STI fall below 3110.79.  As of now, STI hits an intra-day low at 3140.73, that is...

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Valuetronics Analysis

The following is the Elliott Wave Supercycle degree chart To ensure the Supercycle wave count is more accurate, the following criteria are being adopted. Any economic recession shall occur in Supercycle degree corrective wave Any server weakness in company or industry fundamental shall occur in Supercycle degree corrective wave Any weakness in company or industry fundamental can occur in Cycle degree corrective wave The followings are the possible wave count. Wave Count 1 (Black) Supercycle Wave ((1)) in 2007 and Wave ((2)) in 2009 due to 2008 GFC.  It completed Wave ((3)) in Mar 2018 and now in Wave...

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Capitaland Analysis

Came across Capitaland chart and found it is rather interesting from Elliott Wave Supercycle degree, assuming its price follows Elliott Wave pattern. The data was from 2000 till now and for that period of 18 years, it appears only move from Supercycle Wave ((C)) to Supercycle Wave ((1)) and to Supercycle Wave ((2)). Wave ((C)) happened in 2003, the period when economy recession (2001 to 2003) plus SARS outbreak sent its price into correction. Wave ((1)) peaked in 2007 prior to the 2008 GFC due to US subprime crisis.  In general market indices and most stocks recovered from the...

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Venture Corporation Analysis (2)

Continued from Elliott Wave Analysis on Venture Corporation An invalid wave count from previous analysis due to rule violation.  Doing a recount to rectify the mistake. Recount at the Supercycle degree as the correctness in Supercycle will ensure whatever count in the lower degree to be correct.  As data range is from 1994 to 2018, that duration is not enough to fit in 1 complete Supercycle degree cycle. Hence, to narrow down the possibilities, the following criteria shall be used. 1. Supercycle degree corrective waves will occur during economic recession 2. Supercycle or Cycle degree corrective waves will occur...

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Corporate Result — Oct/Nov 2018

1. SPH Reit  —  11th Oct 2018 2. Keppel Reit  —  15th Oct 2018 3. Keppel DC Reit  —  16th Oct 2018 4. Kep Infra Trust  —  16th Oct 2018 5. Kep-KBS US Reit  —  17th Oct 2018 6. Kep T&T  —  17th Oct 2018 7. Kep Corp  —  18th Oct 2018 8. FrasersCom Trust  —  19th Oct 2018 9. SGX  —  19th Oct 2018 10. MapletreeInd Trust  —  23rd Oct 2018 11. Frasers Cpt Trust  —  24th Oct 2018 12. MapletreeCom Trust  —  24th Oct 2018 13. OCBC  —  1st Nov...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (27)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (26) Since the correction which started end January 2018 has ended, STI shall be on the motive wave of the wave 3.  Motive wave is not as complex and difficult to analyze as Corrective wave thus shall focus less on doing Elliott Wave count.  Meanwhile, will be analyzing on the bigger picture of STI in Supercycle degree to get the wave count correct. STI has a history dating back to 1966 but the data for those early days were very difficult to find.  The earliest data which could...

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Portfolio — Sep 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received Genting SP dividend of 1.5 cents/share 2. Received CapitaR China Trust scrip, increasing holding by 3.54%, reducing Strategic cost from $0.2204/share to $0.2191/share 3. Received Mapletreelog Trust advance distribution of between 1.893 cents/unit Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.22 +89.82% +81.92% First REIT $0.5973 $1.26 +110.45% +111.22% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.06 +98.87% +25.40% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.96 -6.51% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.74 -19.71% +34.50% SingPost $1.0093 $1.13 +11.38% +47.77% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $1.98 +130.56% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.37 +52.06% +22.74% Frasers Cpt Trust $1.6314 $2.27 +37.45%...

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China & US Markets Analysis

“Look at the stock markets (China & US) and you can see who win the trade war” That one common sentence that appeared be it from US President, Analysts, Economists or even common people from Singapore.  Frankly speaking, no one win in a trade war when global economy is linked from one country to another.  Never believe in those word so decided to look at stock market for both China and US from Elliott Wave perspective in Supercycle degree.  After all, the trend (be it up or down) in a Supercycle takes multi-decades to establish and not just a...

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