Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

Strategic Investor 2018 Review

FTSE STI ended 2018 at 3068.76 compared with 3402.92 a year ago, representing a loss of  334.16 point or 9.82%.  It was never a good year for global stock market not just STI.  Most of the year STI was in correction mode with a high of 3641.65 in May and a low of 2955.68 in October.  The following summarized my Investment Portfolio performance for 2018 vs 2017 2018 2017 Variant Non-Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss               +34.89%          +68.72%       -49.23% Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss               +22.20%  ...

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Portfolio — Dec 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received MapletreeInd scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.64%, reducing holding price from $0.8537 to $0.8399 Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.26 +93.26% +85.66% First REIT $0.5973 $0.985 +64.52% +114.82% Genting SP $0.5314 $0.975 +82.89% +25.40% KepCorp $7.4156 $5.91 -20.67% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.42 -22.36% +35.17% SingPost $1.0093 $0.915 -9.92% +48.27% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $1.91 +126.03% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.35 +49.83% +22.74% Frasers Cpt Trust $1.6314 $2.17 +31.32% +21.51% Unrealized +34.89% +63.39% Strategic Kep REIT — $1.14 114.00 cents/share 20.47 cents/unit FrasersCom Trust — $1.36 136.00 cents/share...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (36)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (35) After 35 editions of analysis, STI still going nowhere in Elliott wave count as it can still be in corrective phase or post-correction impulsive phase.  This is mainly due to the fact that neither of the scenario has been ruled out because of Elliott wave rules violation.  Thus, when in doubts, backtrack to recount and start from basic again. For this analysis, the 36th edition, backtrack to February 2016 when STI hit a bottom of 2528.44 and that according to past analysis was the SuperCycle Wave 3...

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis (2)

Continued from S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis The picture for S&P 500 looks clearer now with the ongoing hammering down. S&P 500 looks on course of doing a Expanded Flat correction for wave ((4)) as shown in the chart above.  Wave ((3)) has completed in January 2018 since the start in 2016.  For rest of the year and still ongoing, it is doing a wave ((4)) correction, a Cycle degree.  This is not surprising as time frame for Cycle degree ranges from 1 to several years. Expanded Flat pattern is a 3-3-5 structure.  Wave (A) unfolded in a 3-wave...

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Stock Incubator Part 3.1 — Creative Technology Limited

On 29th Nov 2018 Creative Technology made an announcement titled “75 Million Users To Enjoy Super X-Fi Headphone Holography As Creative Partners With iVideoSmart“.  That is a piece of positive news as it signals Super X-Fi technology is being used commercially but definitely not as bombastic as “Creative Partner Smartphone Maker For Super X-Fi Solution”.  This is mainly because not many people know iVideoSmart and what products/services/solutions its offers.  iVideoSmart might have seen something in Creative’s Super X-Fi technology that could give an edge to business if not the partnership doesn’t make any business sense.  Nevertheless, this is a...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (35)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (34) The pull back for STI after hitting 3192.88 on 3rd Dec 2018 wasn’t something unexpected.  The pull back should have some more downside to go to around the 3078 level and it does look very possible next week given STI closed 3111.12 on 7th Dec 2018.  This is because considering STI is developing into a 3rd wave extension of 3rd wave pattern as shown in the chart below. The 3rd wave is the M3 wave and its extension is the 5-wave pattern of its lower degree, the...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (34)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (33) Previously, mentioned STI still stuck in both scenario of still in correction and doing post-correction uptrend by Elliott Wave count.  However, new development surfaced for the past 1 week. Still In Correction This is the Elliott Wave count marked in Red in the above chart.  However, due to the development of STI in the past 1 week rising above 3121.27, this has broken the pattern of the correction.  That is the M1-M4 wave in IC wave is no longer valid.  As such, the Elliott Wave count associated...

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Portfolio — Nov 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 4.35 cents/unit 2. Received SingPost dividend of 0.50 cents/share 3. Received SIA dividend of 8 cents/share   Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.25 +92.40% +85.66% First REIT $0.5973 $1.04 +73.70% +114.82% Genting SP $0.5314 $0.97 +81.95% +25.40% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.06 -18.64% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.51 -21.61% +35.17% SingPost $1.0093 $0.99 -2.49% +48.27% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $1.90 +121.19% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.36 +50.94% +22.74% Frasers Cpt Trust $1.6314 $2.16 +30.71% +21.51% Unrealized +38.56% +63.39% Strategic Kep REIT — $1.15 115.00 cents/share 20.47...

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Stock Incubator Part 1.3 — Nordic Group

Price of Nordic Group has fallen from an all time high of $0.63 (unadjusted for dividend) on 29 Jan 2018 to a low of $0.395 on 23 Nov 2018, a drop of 37.3%.  If it is adjusted for dividend, the price drop is from $0.61 to $0.395, 35.25%.  Alarming and shocking ?  Is the price drop due to fundamental change or correction for price overrun fundamental ?  Well, to me the price correction is something expecting as it is a correction for price overrun fundamental. When I first invested in 2014, the price was just $0.1037 and at a...

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S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis

US indices are renowned for following Elliott Wave very closely and it is worth to analyze to archive for future use. Above is the S&P500 chart for the recent correction.  Ignoring the Elliott Wave degree it is in and just solely focus on the present correction, it is no doubt doing a zigzag pattern of A-B-C.  For each of A-B-C wave, there is another sub-level of a-b-c zigzag.  The following is some of the statistic observed from it. W5 = 2939.86 A-a = 2710.51 A-b = 2816.94 (46.41% A-a) A = 2603.54 (93.05% A-a) B = 2815.15 (62.92% A)...

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Journey To Retirement Part 2.4 — First REIT

The share price of First REIT plunged these 2 days.  In fact after its latest XD on 30th Oct 2018, price fell from $1.21 to today intra-day low of $0.92, a drop of almost 24%.  This was due to the concern of its main revenue contributor and sponsor Lippo Karawaci’s credit rating being downgraded by Fitch by 2 notches.  Refer here for detail write up. First REIT is one of my biggest holding in my portfolio, 30.29% allocation.  Naturally, the plunge in share price should get my worry or wondering should I divest (total or partial).  However, First REIT...

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Journey To Retirement Part 4.2 — SingPost

2018 marks a milestone for my investment in SingPost.  It is the 3rd stock after Genting SP and First REIT that I holding for 10 years already. With a closing price of $0.965 on 16th Nov 2018, it is now in the red with an unrealized loss of 4.96% representing an annualized loss of 0.51% as my holding price is at $1.0093.  However, the dividend return for a decade stood at 48.27% and including these dividends, the annualized return is 3.66%.  So this highlights the importance of dividend ! 10 years ago when I first started investing in SingPost...

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DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis (2)

Continued from DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis As mentioned in previous analysis all the 3 banks are in Primary degree Wave 4 of Cycle degree Wave 3 correction.  The question now is has the correction over for the 3 banks ? The above are the charts for the 3 banks.  As clearly seen, OCBC is the only bank that has broken out of the downtrend channel.  DBS and UOB still have like 6.58% and 8.94% respectively away from breaking out of the downtrend channel.  The downtrend channel is very consistent for the 3 banks to provide a fair analysis and...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (33)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (32) There isn’t any convincing confirmation that STI has ended the correction at 2955.68 or still have a final downside.  With that, STI now still taking both possibilities — correction ended or still in correction. A very messy chart as trying to squeeze all views in it but will go through in detail. 1. STI still trap within the downtrend channel (light blue colored).  It is only a breakout from it will give strong confirmation of correction is over (probably not in the sense of Elliott Wave analysis). ...

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Going Forward Analysis

US midterm election is over with Democrats taking control of the House and Republicans retain the control of the Senate, a result that was largely expected.  The division going forward could bring some interesting events.  While most believe with the Democrats taking the House will not change anything to the ongoing US-China trade war, they are right and they are also wrong ! To the Democrats, they will not interfere with Trump’s foreign policy unless it is something deem too damaging to the nation.  The Democrats aim is to focus on domestic issues, the bread and butter issues facing...

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