Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VIII)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VII) In the previous analysis I pointed out STI could still be in the Intermediate degree Wave 1 of Primary degree Wave 3 coupled with other possible scenarios.  Though the case of still in Intermediate Wave 1 still valid and no evidences to invalidate, one of the other possible scenarios seems to be more fitting from the way STI progresses as of now. The following chart shows this possible scenario. From the chart, the blue channel (temporary) is the Primary degree Wave 3 and that cannot be wrong...

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Elliott Wave on Stock

Elliott Wave can use to analyze market indices and stocks but not all stocks behave in Elliott Wave structure.  As such most analysis you can find are done on market indices.  That doesn’t mean we don’t use Elliott Wave to analyze stock performance. The following is a stock (stock name not display) that was listed on SGX market in 2003.  Since then till now, the price movement (with price adjustment for corporate action such as dividend) follows Elliott Wave nicely. From 2003 to 2007 was Elliott Wave 1 of Primary degree   From 2007 to 2008 was Elliott Wave 2...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VII)

Continuous from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VI) Looking at the way STI has developed since the peak in late January till now, I sense there is something wrong in my previous analysis since then till now.  Have to backtrack and go back to basic to find out where things start to go wrong. So far, STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ?, STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (II) and STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (III) have been correct as none of the Elliott Wave...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (V)

Continuous from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IV) Like mentioned in previous analysis (refer above link), STI rebounded on the week started 12th February 2018 as according to what Elliott Wave predicted.  However, the pattern for this correction (corrective wave (ABC or WXY) for Minor degree or wave 2 for Intermediate degree) is yet to confirm.  At the moment the possibilities are :- 1. simple zigzag (A-B-C) 2. simple flat (W-X-Y) 3. triangle (A-B-C-D-E) 4. combination — double three, double zigzag, etc (W-X-Y) IF we are treating this correction as a simple zigzag and the...

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Portfolio — Feb 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received CapitaR China Trust dividend of 0.83 cents/share (not update) 2. Received SingPost dividend of 0.50 cents/share 3. Strategically increased holding of MapletreeCom Trust by 12.16% at $0, reducing Strategic Cost from $0.2398/share to $0.2347/share 4. Received Kep Reit cash dividend of 1.43 cents/share 5. Received First Reit scrip dividend, increasing holding by 1.57%, reducing holding price from $0.6067 to $0.5973 Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.02 +72.61% +77.11% First REIT $0.5973 $1.36 +127.15% +104.03% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.16 +117.68% +18.82% KepCorp $7.4156 $8.02 +7.78% +40.06% SIA $12.0697...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (VI)

Continued from previous analysis, STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (V) Firstly, I have to rule out the possibility of a flat and triangle correction in the previous analysis.  This means for this Minor degree Elliott Wave correction it will be a simple zigzag, a combination still possible with the first pattern of a zigzag and lastly a double zigzag pattern.  However, for the latter two, I can see low possibility of happening simply because the time frame would be over stretched for those to happen given that it is a Minor degree Elliott Wave.  Ruling...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IV)

A continuous from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (III). Global markets were on a sharp fall since the start of this month with US markets having probably the worst wild ride on an intra-day basis since the 2008 GFC.  FTSE STI was not spared either with the selling and the drop.  With the close of 3,377.24 on 9th Feb 2018, STI practically gave back all the gain its has since the start of the year and ended into the red YTD.  Alarming ? Shocking ? Fearing ? Panicking ? Unfortunately, the answer is NO, as...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (III)

The previous 2 analysis (refer here and here) were research on when the current Elliott Wave cycle which started in 2009 will hit its peak and when will be the next trough — the start of another Elliott Wave cycle of Primary degree.  Having that timeframe being worked out — potentially peak at 2018 or 2019, another financial crisis and recession in 2019 or 2020 and finally the trough at 2020 or 2021, this framework shall be used to analysis for potential peak value for this Elliott Wave cycle. Have mentioned before STI is now in the wave 3...

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Portfolio — Jan 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Entitled to First Reit scrip dividend or cash dividend of 2.15 cents/share. 2. Strategically increased Kep Reit holding by 5.09% at $0 cost, reducing Strategic cost from $0.2424/share to $0.2398/share 3. Strategically increased Kep DC Reit holding by 2.38% at $0 cost, reducing cost from $0.9393/share to $0.9174/share 4. Received Kep DC Reit dividend of 3.49 cents/share. 5. Received Mapletreelog Trust dividend of 2.088 cents/share 6. Entitled to FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.40 cents/share 7. Entitled to Kep Reit scrip dividend or cash dividend of 1.43 cents/share 8. Received MapletreeInd Trust dividend of...

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Recap 2017 & Looking Ahead 2018

Global markets ended the year 2017 with a gain of almost 20% and FTSE STI was up 18.13% for the same period.  It was nevertheless a very good year for global stock markets with many believe the bull market since 2009 recovery of the GFC was back and expecting more good years ahead. Recap As mentioned in Recap 2016 & Looking Ahead 2017, 2017 was all about execution and how markets react to those.  US Fed did what was being projected to do in end of 2016 that was to hike rate 3 times so nothing surprise about it...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (II)

Managed to get a STI chart that started from 1980 so the missing portion from 1980 to 1987 in my previous analysis (STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ?) can now fit in to make a better analysis. Previously, with only chart started from 1987 and given that 1987 was the big market crash, the famous Black Monday, my assumption was that was the bottom of an Elliott Wave cycle.  Now with chart data started from 1980, it was observed that the 1986 low, the market low after the 1985 recession, was even lower than 1987 low. ...

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Strategic Investor 2017 Review

FTSE STI ended the year 2017 at 3,402.92 compared with 2880.76 a year ago, representing a gain of 522.16 points or 18.13%.  It was perhaps a bumper year for most investors in Singapore market or rather for global markets.  The following table summarized my investment portfolio for 2017 vs portfolio for 2016. 2017 2016 Variant Non-Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss    +68.72%    +45.19%    +52.07% Strategic Unrealized Gain/Loss    +21.29%    +11.63%    +83.06% Portfolio Unrealized Gain/Loss    +55.19%    +37.84%    +45.85% Realized Gain/Loss    +10.27%    +10.73%    -4.29% Dividend Return    +49.55%    +46.61%    +6.31% Cash...

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STI Analysis — 1st Jan 2018

Like many investors or traders wanting to know when FTSE STI will peak and when will the crash eventually come, I have to analyze the market in every possible aspects to “estimate” or “predict” that.  My past analysis which started in January 2016, March 2016, April 2016, May 2016, May 2017, August 2017, October 2017 and December 2017 unfortunately were unable to provide any clue as those analysis was done on that uptrend since the drop in 2016.  To have a more reliable or precise analysis I have to look at the bigger picture and it really took me some...

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STI Analysis — 20th Dec 2017

Seems like the analysis I did on 7th Oct 2017 citing STI is in the wave 5 of the uptrend could be wrong.  With STI dropping below 3,4000 level today and its PE still nowhere near the bubble stage, it is rather difficult to convince STI is in the wave 5 of the uptrend.  As such, another analysis was done as shown in the following figure.   The above figure shows that instead of wave 5, STI probably just completed wave 3 with 3,468 as its peak.  As such, the current descend is the wave 4.  The different between...

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Portfolio — Oct 2017

Investment Portfolio 1. Increased Mapletreelog Trust holding by 140.96% due to the preferential offering of 1 for 10 @ $1.145, hence Strategic cost increased from $0.1358/share to $0.2706/share 2. Entitled to Kep REIT scrip or cash dividend of 1.40 cents/share 3. Entitled to FrasersCom Trust scrip or cash dividend of 2.4070 cents/share 4. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.78 cents/share 5. Received First REIT dividend of 2.14 cents/share 6. Received MapletreeInd Trust dividend of 3 cents/share 7. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 2.97 cents/share 8. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.24 cents/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized...

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