Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

Journey To Retirement Part 2.4 — First REIT

The share price of First REIT plunged these 2 days.  In fact after its latest XD on 30th Oct 2018, price fell from $1.21 to today intra-day low of $0.92, a drop of almost 24%.  This was due to the concern of its main revenue contributor and sponsor Lippo Karawaci’s credit rating being downgraded by Fitch by 2 notches.  Refer here for detail write up. First REIT is one of my biggest holding in my portfolio, 30.29% allocation.  Naturally, the plunge in share price should get my worry or wondering should I divest (total or partial).  However, First REIT...

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Journey To Retirement Part 4.2 — SingPost

2018 marks a milestone for my investment in SingPost.  It is the 3rd stock after Genting SP and First REIT that I holding for 10 years already. With a closing price of $0.965 on 16th Nov 2018, it is now in the red with an unrealized loss of 4.96% representing an annualized loss of 0.51% as my holding price is at $1.0093.  However, the dividend return for a decade stood at 48.27% and including these dividends, the annualized return is 3.66%.  So this highlights the importance of dividend ! 10 years ago when I first started investing in SingPost...

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DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis (2)

Continued from DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis As mentioned in previous analysis all the 3 banks are in Primary degree Wave 4 of Cycle degree Wave 3 correction.  The question now is has the correction over for the 3 banks ? The above are the charts for the 3 banks.  As clearly seen, OCBC is the only bank that has broken out of the downtrend channel.  DBS and UOB still have like 6.58% and 8.94% respectively away from breaking out of the downtrend channel.  The downtrend channel is very consistent for the 3 banks to provide a fair analysis and...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (33)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (32) There isn’t any convincing confirmation that STI has ended the correction at 2955.68 or still have a final downside.  With that, STI now still taking both possibilities — correction ended or still in correction. A very messy chart as trying to squeeze all views in it but will go through in detail. 1. STI still trap within the downtrend channel (light blue colored).  It is only a breakout from it will give strong confirmation of correction is over (probably not in the sense of Elliott Wave analysis). ...

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Going Forward Analysis

US midterm election is over with Democrats taking control of the House and Republicans retain the control of the Senate, a result that was largely expected.  The division going forward could bring some interesting events.  While most believe with the Democrats taking the House will not change anything to the ongoing US-China trade war, they are right and they are also wrong ! To the Democrats, they will not interfere with Trump’s foreign policy unless it is something deem too damaging to the nation.  The Democrats aim is to focus on domestic issues, the bread and butter issues facing...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (32)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (31) Before any update, there is something that was missed out in the previous analysis on the case of STI possible ended the correction at 2955.68.  This update will rectify that. Firstly, on the case that Elliott Wave count for the correction has not ended — the Red and the Grey as shown in the above chart, there isn’t any different in wave count from the previous analysis.  The rebound to 3121.27 on 2nd Nov 2018 is taken as M4 of the 5-wave diagonal of the 2nd 5...

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ComfortDelGro Analysis (3)

Continued from ComfortDelGro Analysis (2) Another index component stock that stick to Elliott Wave Fibonacci guideline very closely. ComfortDelGro completed a 5-wave Primary degree Elliott Wave, Cycle degree Wave 1, at $2.49 since the start in Dec 2017.  Currently it is in Cycle degree Wave 2 correction. Looking at the statistic for the 5-wave Primary degree Elliott Wave :- P0 = $1.806 P1 = $2.083 P2 = $1.873 P3 = $2.464 P4 = $2.22 P5 = $2.49 This will give the following Fibonacci ratio :- w1 : w3 : w5 = 1 : 2.134 : 0.975 w2 = 75.81%...

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OCBC Analysis (2)

Continued from OCBC Analysis and DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis A new development happened to OCBC price performance today. As shown from the chart above, OCBC hit an intra-day high of $11.21 and closed $11.15 today.  This level appears to be breakout from the downtrend channel with high volume.  Does that mean the Primary Wave 4, P4, correction for OCBC has ended at $10.36 on 30th Oct 2018 ?  Unfortunately, it is still uncertain until the price level moves to the a conclusive level.  However, do not rule out the possibility that it is too. This is a P4 correction, a...

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Portfolio — Oct 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received Kep Reit dividend of 1.36 cents/unit 2. Received First REIT dividend of 2.15 cents/unit 3. Received FrasersCom Trust dividend of 2.40 cents/unit 4. Entitled to MapletreeInd Trust scrip or cash dividend of 3.01 cents/unit 5. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 2.862 cents/unit 6. Received MapletreeCom Trust dividend of 2.27 cents/unit   Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.11 +80.35% +81.92% First REIT $0.5973 $1.20 +100.43% +114.82% Genting SP $0.5314 $0.88 +65.02% +25.40% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.20 -16.76% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.48 -21.86% +34.50% SingPost $1.0093 $1.04 +2.46% +47.77%...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (31)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (30) Discovered something new that clear couple of doubts in previous wave count.  Hence, updating and redefining the present correction wave count. The above chart is the wave count for this S3C3P2 correction in the last analysis.  Intermediate degree Wave A, IA was formed at 3176.26 on 6th Jul 2018.  This led to Wave IB to be at 3347.98 on 7th Aug 2018 resulting in now in Wave IC doing a 5-wave diagonal to make the overall correction a 5-3-5 zigzag pattern.  However, there are couple of doubts...

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STI, Bear Market & Elliott Wave

STI fell to an intra-day low of 2955.68, that is like a drop of 18.84% from the high of 3641.65, less than 2% from entering a bear market.  As for why a drop of 20% is a de facto definition for bear market, that is questionable as far as concern but shall not be discussed here.  However, in Elliott Wave, there is only uptrend, downtrend, motive and corrective, no concept of bull or bear market.  Nevertheless since bull & bear market is like a standard term in stock market, let see whether there is any relationship between a bear...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (30)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (29) While looking at the wave count of the 3 local banks (refer here), discovered STI chart looks very similar to the 3 local banks.  That raise the possibility that the STI wave count leading to present correction might be incorrect.  That is instead STI Primary Wave 1 to peak in January 2018, it behaves like the 3 local banks that peaked in May 2018.  This is possible if taken into account of the Intermediate Wave 3 extension (similar to the 3 local banks) for the Primary Wave...

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DBS, OCBC, UOB Analysis

The following is a Supercycle to Primary degree Elliott Wave analysis of the 3 local banks — DBS, OCBC and UOB.  It is not meant to analyze the detail present correction but rather as a guide of how their impact on STI in general.  Due to the weightage of the 3 local banks on STI, their price performance play a key role in determine the direction or trend of STI.  The process of deciding the Supercycle wave count shall not be covered and the stated will be the valid or highly possible one. DBS The following is the chart...

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Keppel Corp Analysis

While trying to avoid posting any Elliott Wave analysis on Keppel Corp as it is part of the investment portfolio, the finest and precision is almost a near perfect textbook scenario in its Elliott Wave analysis compared to rest of the listed stocks in SGX just worth archiving down.  Perhaps, there won’t be another listed stocks in SGX that have that kind education purpose. Firstly, need to look at Supercycle degree to determine which Supercycle it is currently in.  The usual criteria applies to eliminate and narrow down possibilities. 1. Supercycle degree corrective wave shall occur in economic recession...

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Creative Technology Analysis (3)

Continued from Creative Technology Analysis (2) As mentioned in Stock Incubator — Creative Technology blogging of any technical analysis shall be ceased so here will be the last post to summarize up all the analysis so far and what’s expect going forward. The recent weakness in global stock markets have in a way invalidate the previous wave count.  From the look of it, there are 2 possible wave counts. Wave Count 1 (Blue) Since the drop from $10, it has developed into a large ascending triangle with (a), (b), (c) and (d) of the triangle being formed.  The fall to...

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