Author: ccloh Strategic Investor Zone

ThaiBev Analysis (2)

Came across some online write up on Elliott Wave corrective structure guideline saying that the 5-wave in Wave A and C of the correction phase can be either an impulse or diagonal pattern (refer here).  On the other hand, the “official” Elliott Wave principle (Elliott Wave Principle — Frost and Prechter) does not mention of such a guideline.  With that guideline and revisit the analysis on ThaiBev, interesting observation was noted and hence worth the archive for it.     Above is the chart of the Elliott Wave analysis of ThaiBev correction since the start in Aug 2016.  Applying...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (24)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (23) Firstly, redefined some wave counts of the correction since end January 2018 to ensure the correction pattern conforms to standard Elliott Wave correction pattern. As a result of the redefined, the Elliott Wave Intermediate degree (Scenario 1 & 2.1) wave 4 correction is of 2 possible structures, an Expanded Flat (3-3-5) pattern OR a Flat-Zigzag double-three pattern.  This is due to the ongoing Minor Wave C yet to fully developed into a clear pattern which results in these 2 possibilities.  Actually, the Expanded Flat case was first mentioned on STI Analysis —...

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Portfolio — Aug 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Strategically increased CapitaR China Trust holding by 13.37% at $0 cost; reducing Strategic cost from $0.2249/unit to $0.2204/unit 2. Entitled to CapitaR China Trust scrip or cash dividend of 5.39 cents/unit 3. Received SingPost dividend of 0.5 cents/share Stock Holding Price* Market Price Unrealized Profit/Loss Dividend Return Non-Strategic CapitaMall Trust $1.155 $2.14 +82.93% +81.92% First REIT $0.5973 $1.29 +115.46% +111.22% Genting SP $0.5314 $1.07 +100.76% +22.58% KepCorp $7.4156 $6.53 -12.31% +43.97% SIA $12.0697 $9.80 -19.21% +34.50% SingPost $1.0093 $1.15 +13.36% +47.77% MapletreeInd Trust $0.8537 $1.99 +131.73% +72.54% Kep DC Reit $0.9174 $1.35 +49.83% +22.74% Frasers Cpt...

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ThaiBev Analysis

ThaiBev as observed is a very much talk about stock at the moment mainly because it has fallen from a high of about $0.985 in Aug 2016 to $0.64 on 24th Aug 2018, that is like a drop of about 65% already.  Has it reach bottom or still have some more downside ?  That probably is the most discussed about among the stock community now.  Apparently, most analysis came across is using Elliott Wave so here will be using Elliott Wave to analyze.   The above is the big picture regarding the amount of drop with respect to Fibonacci...

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Technology Stock Rally ? (2)

Continued from Technology Stock Rally ? Of the 6, Valuetronics is the strongest followed by Sunningdale Tech in term of bullishness.  The weakest UMS.  The rest I should say is a 50-50 case that they will turn bullish. That the last statement from the analysis done 1 week ago.  Let see how they turned out 1 week later. AEM It didn’t turn bullish but instead getting more bearish.  The rise finally stop not even touching bottom of the cloud.  The Tenkan line also failed to turn up and cut up the Kijun line.  The short-term GMMA did compress but...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (23)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (22) Not a good sign, that the comment on STI at the moment.  The continued selling and weakness has raised the possibility of invalidating the wave count that STI is in Minute wave 2 (P3I5M1M2).  In previous analysis mentioned that should STI fall below the 6th Jul 2018 low of 3176.26, it will invalidate the Scenario 1 and 2.1.  Have to retract that statement as it will not invalidate Scenario 1 and 2.1, it will just invalidate the wave count that STI is in P3I5M1M2 and back track...

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Technology Stock Rally ?

Past few days technology related stocks rebounded and outperformed the STI index, this has given people the impression that they are rally.  Now are they really rally or just a rebound from oversold ?  After looking at several of those stocks, I found mixed findings.  The TA tools I’m analyzing are Ichimoku and GMMA.  Main tool will be Ichimoku and GMMA is used to confirm the trend.  Elliott Wave is not used as not all stocks follow Elliott Wave. In Ichimoku, a bullish is defined by the following conditions :- 1. Tenkan (Conversion) line cut above Kijun (Base) line...

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A Decade of Blogging

Market Daily — 31st Jul 08 was the first post on this blog, That is to say I have actually blogged for a decade already.  I started this blog back in 2007 with the blog title “Patience Market Zone“, that why the URL to this blog is https://patiencemarketzone.blogspot.com/ rather than the same as the title now “ccloh Strategic Investor Zone”.  One need a lot of patience to be in stock market and that is how the initial title came about. I started the blog for only 1 reason back then, that is to provide stock market information to my clients. ...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (22)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (21) The failure of STI to breakout from 3340 meant STI still in Minute wave 2 (P3I5M1M2).  This has a potential downside of 3238 for a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.  However, looking at the volume on a down day, a 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement to 3211 look possible too.  Anything below 3211 raise the possibility of invalidation of Scenario 1 and 2.1.  The above is the optimistic view of Elliott Wave count of STI. The above chart is the pessimistic view for Elliott Wave count of STI.  The is the...

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ComfortDelGro Analysis

ComfortDelGro released its 2Q18 earning on 10th Aug 2018 with the headline as Revenue for the quarter increased by 5.4% (vs 2Q17) Group operating costs increased by 6.5% (vs 2Q17) Group operating profit fell by 2.1% (vs 2Q17) Net profit decreased by 5.5% (vs 2Q17) Not something fantastic or surprising as we saw drop in operating and net profit.  Some might deemed that as a set of negative result.  Now this is what it is stated in the 2Q18 earning report however if we took another perspective to analyze the result, things look totally different. The following is a...

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Portfolio — Jul 2018

Investment Portfolio 1. Received SingPost dividend of 2.00 cents/share 2. Received Kep Reit dividend of 1.42 cents/unit 3. Received Kep DC Reit dividend of 0.85 cents/unit 4. Received First Reit dividend of 2.15 cents/unit 5. Received Kep Corp dividend of 15 cents/share 6. Received CapitaMall Trust dividend of 2.81 cents/unit 7. Entitled to Mapletreelog Trust scrip or cash dividend of 0.559 cents/unit 8. Received MapletreeInd Trust dividend of 3.00 cents/unit 9. Received Frasers Cpt Trust dividend of 3.053 cents/unit 10. Received FrasersCom Trust dividend of 2.40 cents/unit 11. Received MapletreeCom trust dividend of 2.23 cents/unit 12. Received SIA dividend...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (21)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (20) Before begin, I decided to redefine Elliott Wave naming of wave count from now on.  The new naming is to ensure as the analysis gets into more lower levels, it will not be lost at which Elliott Wave count it is be with reference to the top most level.  Example of the naming is as followed :- Primary wave 3 = P3 Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 4 = P3I4 Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 5, Minor wave 1 = P3I5M1 Primary wave 3, Intermediate wave 5,...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (20)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (19) In the previous analysis, it was mentioned STI needs to move above 3338 to confirm the present correction which started in late January 2018 finally ended.  STI closed 3297.83 on 20th Jul 2018 still some 40+ points away from the confirmation but some interesting facts have developed since hitting the bottom of 3176.26 on 6th Jul 2018. The above chart is a reproduction (and addition detail) of the one that was posted on 12th Jul 2018 (refer previous analysis). On 6th Jul 2018 I posted live (refer...

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STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (18)

Continued from STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (17) As STI continued to search for bottom that raise the possibility of another scenario from happening apart from the Scenario 1 and 2.1 mentioned previously.  Technically, the new scenario is not a new one but rather an old scenario in my past analysis.  It was actually the first scenario that came to my mind when STI entered correction in February (STI Analysis — the next peak and trough ? (IV)).  I’ll shall denote this as Scenario 3 now. The blue-colored Fibonacci Retracement level is for both Scenario...

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Corporate Result — Jul/Aug 2018

1. SPH Reit  —  10th Jul 20182. SPH  —  11th Jul 20183. Kep Reit  —  16th Jul 20184. Soilbuild REIT  —  16th Jul 20185. Kep DC Reit  —  17th Jul 20186. Kep Infra Trust  —  17th Jul 20187. Kep-KBS US Reit  —  17th Jul 20188. First Reit  —  17th Jul 20189. Kep T&T  —  18th Jul 201810. Capitaland Comm Trust  —  19th Jul 201811. Kep Corp  —  19th Jul 201812. SATS  —  19th Jul 201813. SIA Engg  —  19th Jul 201814. CapitaMall Trust  —  20th Jul 201815. Semb Mar  —  20th Jul 201816. Mapletreelog Trust  —  23rd Jul 201817....

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