Author: Clueless Punter

Crystal balls and smoke

It’s that time of year again, where we put everything down and engage in that archaic ritual of crystal ball gazing. Simply put, it’s what most people describing as setting the sales budget for next year. In my case, our business nature is really unpredictable and it makes the reading of tea leaves highly difficult. It is akin to being in several marriages all at once. You may be blissful this year and then sour the next. You also get into special arrangements; OK you can fool around outside, but I also can, ok? Now, where was I again....

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Can Financial Freedom turn a retriever into a german shepherd dog?

He was tall, like basketball-tall and like how people describe in Chinese; skinny and dry. He took to the stage and begun his opening speech. Big words, dramatic pauses and full of enthusiasm. The man was new but not really; he replaced an outgoing gentleman on the board, an Angmoh transferred in from another division. The audience was a raucous gathering of successful cowboys, swashbucklers and fishmongers. You could not find one here who could not tell a tale or two of their gallant exploits out in the field. They were seated in comfy chairs and smiling lazily, the...

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The first working day of 2016

Today began for me just like any other. I got up past seven, did stuff, then left after packing breakfast. Traffic was heavy like it used to be before Christmas, and I arrived early at half past eight. I was pleased to see the carpark still relatively empty, and my favorite single lot available. I cruised smoothly towards the lot and lined parallel ahead. Slowly I angled in, stopped to adjust, then pulled out and re-did it again because I wanted to park ‘swee swee’. Is there an impatient driver waiting to pass? No, it does not matter, nobody...

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YTD Healthcare

Google Finance Bloomberg For the only 2 markets I am interested in; Thai and Singapore, above is how the healthcare players fared YTD. Off the top of my head I recall the largest player in the region by market value to be IHH and annual sales to be Ramsay from Australia. For the SET, foreign investors net sold THB 72 bn while local institutions and retail made up about THB 82 bn in net buys. BH is an absolute juggernaut and prices reflect that statement clearly. Justified or not, BH grinds out solid numbers predictably and if we recall...

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The new Bloomberg Business website

I noticed the new web design some time ago when I loaded the Bloomberg site and thought I had clicked on a phishing link and landed in some fake site. It looks so… neon, cluttered and messy. ”The redesigned site was a reinvention of how we bring our news to the world. It’s faster, smarter, and frankly bigger than anything we’ve done before – and it’s uniquely digital, built for a global web audience, and designed to deliver the right news at the right time,” – Joshua Topolsky, chief digital content officer at Bloomberg Media I was reading this article...

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Some guy from the family behind TUF acquires Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday have announced a club takeover by the Thai Union Frozen Group. The South Yorkshire club confirmed the Thai company has bought 100% of the club’s shares from the previous owner Milan Mandaric’s company, UKFI Limited, for an as yet undisclosed sum, reported to be around £30m.Representatives of the Thai Union Frozen Group, which owns John West Foods and is the world’s largest producer of tuna, have been in talks with the club since the end of last year and attended last weekend’s goalless home draw against Birmingham. They have also met with the manager, Stuart Gray, to discuss...

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Wrapping my head around this "buying electricity from Laos" thing

I did not see any indications of the potential size of electricity orders in future, but to put things in perspective, Singapore’s total licensed electricity generation capacity was 12,521 MW in 2014, while Laos’ hydropower plants have a capacity of about 3230 MW with the potential to increase to 28,000 MW. In 2013, total electricity generation in Singapore was 4124 ktoe (48 TWh), while Singapore’s total electricity consumption was 45 TWh in 2013. Electricity tariff from Jan-Mar2015 is 23.29 cents/kWh. I know some of the numbers are outdated but I think they shouldn’t be too far from +/- 2%...

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IHH Healthcare and BGH, McDonalds and CPF

IHH Healthcare and Bangkok Hospital (BGH), McDonalds and CPF. These were 2 news items that caught my attention today. IHH Healthcare is reportedly targeting a 11.5% stake in Bangkok Hospital, the Thai, acquisition-machine, behemoth otherwise known as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services. The Star broke the news about IHH possibly funding the stake with a mix of cash and issuance of new shares. The Straits Times reported the same news a few hours later (as usual!). And the latest from Reuters is BGH themselves refuting the news. ”BGH has not been contacted by IHH… BGH has no plan to issue...

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My year

The stock-picking strategy had been a great way to ride the post-coup rally in the SET this year. Despite the eventful year, the SET is still up about 16% YTD, not too shabby. The STI is somewhere… I have no idea. I have not kept track of the STI for a long time, only some individual stocks. I am being proactive this year by making myself stop all activity early, curb that itchy-hand habit and be happy with what I have achieved this year. I am almost fully vested in my baht holdings, while I have been building up...

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My week

1. Sold TNDT on 8/12/14. I have several reasons to be long but sometimes I make irrational decisions and this is one of them. I had a very comfortable safety margin due to the share price rocketing a few months ago but I also have a bad feeling about their coal plant venture into Myanmar. It does seem unrealistic to expect a poorer neighbour to house your dirty energy plant which would only feed you. These are also my last shares bought using the local CIMB brokerage. I had long wanted to cash out and keep all Thai-related share...

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China > India > Thailand > Ph > SG > …

Mai Hmm, some food for thought. “Big-time investors picked Singapore stocks over Hong Kong in November Hong Kong is the least loved market this month. Foreign international investors preferred Singapore over Hong Kong in the third quarter, as foreign mutual funds again warmed up to Asian equities after two consecutive months of sell-offs. According to HSBC, Hong Kong is the least loved market in Asia by foreign international investors in November. China regained the top position as the most loved market, pushing India down to second position in the region. Singapore came in fifth, right behind Thailand and the...

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Egat: more coal-fired power plants needed

”The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) has confirmed Thailand will have to build more coal-fired power plants to meet its energy needs since future supplies of natural gas are uncertain and renewable energy is expensive. Renewable energy such as hydroelectric power plants and solar cells were remarked to have unstable production capacities, are not commercially viable on an industrial scale and involve high investment costs. At present, 68% of  Thailand’s electricity is produced from nat gas, 9% from coal, the rest from fossil fuels and renewable energy. Thailand’s energy consumption grows at 3% p. a. and is estimated...

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Bangkok Airways bucking the Thai IPO trend

“Warren Buffet said a decade ago he’s sworn off putting money in airline stocks since his $358 million “mistake” in US Airways Group Inc. Investors in Asian carriers would do well to heed his advice.  Six of the 10 initial public offerings by airlines in Asia during the past five years are trading below their sale prices, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 10 airlines have fallen an average 12 percent from their offer levels, as the region’s publicly traded carriers racked up a combined $1.8 billion in losses last year.  Asia’s airlines have failed to capitalize on a...

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Market News 19 Oct 2014

Thailand BTS, Sansiri to develop large scale residential projects worth more than 3 billion baht each located within 500 metres of mass-transit lines. This is positive for BTS and probably explains why it has still been going up against the general market trend (Bangkok Post, 17/10/14) 3Q earnings of 8 SET-listed banks, excluding KTB, rose 8% y-o-y, while net profits were up 5.73% for the first nine months of the year. (Bangkok Post, 8/10/14) Source:...

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Market News 10 Oct 2014

This is quite an eventful Friday, so I shall jot down market news that are of interest to me. I find it easier for me to keep track of relevant events this way, in case I need them in future. Thailand SET, BOAML, Phatra Securities completed a roadshow in New York, selling Thailand to an audience of global funds with a combined AUM of USD 4.5 trillion. BoT Governer predicted economic growth of 4.8% in 2015, while pledging the government’s commitment to maintaining economic stability, stimulus measures, and reforms. (SET, 9/10/14) MRT Authority of Thailand will spend the rest...

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