Author: CoryLogics

Cory Diary : Impact of Increasing Rates on Home Loan

As all property owners, with increasing rates and weakening economy, there is some worry we may have difficulty paying our loans. We need to have a feel to assess how much an impact it can be in the future. So here’s what I did using an on-line loan calculator for my calculation. For a respectable condo size and location, S$1.125 M dollar price tag rounded up to $900 K loan amount at 80% loan to value. Applying DBS FHR18 +1.8% ( 3rd Year ), FHR18 is around 0.6% currently per DBS website.  Loan Rate 2.4% This works out to...

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Cory Diary : Portfolio updates 20151226

Seems nothing is safe out there. And the thing hanging over likely China Stock Over Valuation and Singapore Growths. The 3 local big banks have seen dramatic price reduction in the range of -20 to -25% despite good overall earning. That’s a crash isn’t it ? Even the Teleco is not spared ranging -20% to -30%. M1 more on the 4th Telecom impact. If we are thinking this is all about stock price or employment rate then we need to look and get a feel on the ground. Tell these to those vested in Property, Oil and Gas, Commodity,...

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Cory Diary : Portfolio update 20151012

If someone has said in the beginning of the year that China will be the main reason that STI enters correction territory it will be quite hard to accept. Such is the market dynamic. Hard to anticipate even for expert.Is the correction over with recent days run up ? Well just looking at the 1 yr and 2 yr charts, seems so. However 5 yr and 10 yr charts are yet confirm. That’s my own view. Time will tell ! My portfolio ytd went down -5% at the worst period and recovered to -2.6%. STI still at -10% today....

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Cory Diary : Traps to Avoid

Portfolio Management Land Mine  ( 地雷 ) As the name feared, the misfortune of stepping on one is terrible. Will likely to have a limp blown off. A dent that is not easy to recover from. In stock context probably -50% to complete loss in a counter and depending on it’s size in the portfolio it can be quite damaging to my overall returns. The fewer stocks I have in my portfolio, the higher my concentration. Too many stocks and i will exceed my bandwidth to monitor them. Growth Stocks  ( 成长股 ) High PE typically. To maintain this story the growth needs...

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Cory Diary : Market Fear

I have been working on my SUM on getting a good yield for past months but couldn’t get a good discount on equity that i am comfortable with. Every time i look back to 2008 financial crisis price and i will shook my head. If i have done so and so, i would have been shaking leg like AK do. Well not exactly like him. But you know what i mean ?   Fast forward today, chance upon it, thanks to Shang Hai Stock bubbles and slow demand, the world in chaos. FEAR set in. What-if the market falls...

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Cory Diary : Portfolio Interim Result

The Eruption and Burst of Shang Hai Index reflects logically that poor earning of the economy will not be able to sustain the bull in the long run. While Singapore market avoided the crash so far, the sell down has been quite significant in recent weeks on specific counters.Telcos have moved down a notch, O&G industry has been disastrous, Shippings have been lowing for a long time and Commodities have already fallen one after another. If we use STI 3370 (2nd Jan’15), YTD STI is almost 5% lower at friday close STI 3202.5. On average most investors are probably around...

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Cory Diary : Expenses needed for Retirement

First of all, calculation is futile if we do not consider Inflation and Reasonable Lifestyle. This is not saying Medical is not important but major expenses are covered by Insurance and/or CPF Medisave/shields. Getting the right coverage on hospitalization cost is important in my opinion. But trying to jack up your retirement amount to anticipate payment for serious illness that cost say $300 K direct from pocket is not meant to be as typical retirement plan that is realistic to be prepared for many. For the start i will not retire till i meet my minimum requirement lifestyle. After...

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Cory Diary : Measure of Success in Life

There’s an online discussion recently on the measure of success in life.Someone say able to spend like $2M annually … Another conclude from Warren Buffet still lives in his old home while Bill Gate in Huge mansion. Gate succeed …and Warren a failure One says  “live simple life better; got money spend; no money save up to get what u want…then tats your achievement fulfilled” Most people probably want to measure by marriage and children. Maybe with a car and home thrown in. When I was young, i do quite badly. Normal Streamed and still last 10 in class...

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Cory Diary : Save Your Saved

Trying to control my excitement this afternoon in staff meeting. Just as soon i have gone through the weekly agenda, i pulled up the Compound Interest Formula to the projected screen. A 10 minute effort before the meeting started while i was waiting for everyone to arrive.”I like to show something to all of you today. Here’s the formula of compound interests for $1000. Year 1, 3%, $1030 … Year 5, 3%, $1159 … Year 24, 3%, $2033 Your money just grow and doubled just with 3% annual compounded after 24 years. Now think it this way, if you...

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Cory Diary: Property

Visit a show room recently so thought i pen something to share from my learning just on this. Elsewhere maybe different as i am no property expert. Read this as my personal thought talking to myself and not advise. Room Size The show room units are truly well designed. Is a promise of future living. However rooms are really small if you are “HDB type”. And if you plan to wait longer so that it can grow bigger in future, we may need to accept it that is not going to happen even if price gets significantly lower. Decoration...

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Cory Diary: World of Warcraft (WOW) Online Economy

Every time when there’s a major patch in the WOW game, there will be new contents, game play change, new crafting materials and more character levels. In addition, the currency in the game using Gold coins will have suffer significant Inflation Spikes. Soon after several rounds of patches (analogy to Economic Cycles), ones will learn the pain of inflation and the obsolescence of old materials used in crafting or consumption. Few facts in the game. There’s aren’t property and coins are virtual (not backed). The best way to beat inflation is to work to provide service by helping to...

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Cor Diary : Gold Metal

Recently i have been trying to simplify my investment yet achieve the stability and diversification needed. Everything is up for review. Few things I did so far. – Increased by holding in STI ETF and Bond. – Sold DBS Preference Shares. – Sold significant portion of my USD and NTD – Build up some cash by taking profit on a number of run up stocks I could not find a suitable equity to re-balance into currently. Probably need to find an entry point some time later this year. Another area i am looking at is metal. Gold has been...

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Cory Diary : Falling Knives

In stock investment my thought is always about Capital Preservation. Thus, if we take care of the down side, we win mid to long term consistently. What does this actually means ? 1. Avoid landmines by not going into their field no matter how attractive it is     S-Chips, Commodity stocks 2. Management Integrity     Any listed companies screw me once (that works against minority shareholder), i will ban them for life 3. Industry Issue     A good example i think is shipbuilding/owner.A rather competitive industry which will stay that way. 4. Look for Reasonable Dividends...

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Cory Diary : Remembering Lee Kuan Yew

Watched the ST Video on Remembering LKY. My tears keep flow down throughout the hour long play. Maybe two … i dunno why. Mr Lee has been there throughout my life. I saw him once in real person faraway when Hougang Mall was first opened about 20 years ago i guess. Fifty meters away across the open central space from a level high. I was contented. Many things we have taken for granted today do not come by chance. English gives me a good job. We have a garden city. A safe country. A strong economy. And a credible...

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Cory Diary: Starhub Cash Flow

To start with, i have position in this and need to assess my risk level. With the AR just published is time to do a quick review.QvQ Results Rev up 5.1%, Profit 10.1%, FCF 48.7 M (tripled up) FY14 – FCF 333.3 M (~14% Increase) – Finance Expenses $22.6 M Annual Dividend : 20 cents (S$347 M) Borrowing : $687.5 M (~3.29% interests using Finance expenses) Shares : 1,733,188,000 “As at 31 December 2014, the Group’s cash and cash equivalents amounted to S$264.2 million, slightly lower than S$266.9 million a year ago.” Thoughts The increase in FCF means they could...

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