Author: CoryLogics

Cory Diary : Global Warming

This has been one of most contentious. Global temperature has been rising. Does not using coal helps ? Should we use Nuclear energy ? Will the damage be reversible especially our oceans ? Is Oil the problem and the solution ? Save the Earth helps ? Cutting down electrical usage helps or just prolong the issue ? Cory believes is plainly due to human population growth. From google …”What is human population growth? Global human population growth amounts to around 75 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7...

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Cory Diary : Forest Woods

Almost 70% (357) units of Forest wood Residence (OCR) has been lodged with URA website. Price range between S$1300~1500 psf sitting on site area of 150,712 sq ft. When North Park Residence first launched, it was a success too. Both private condos are in prime locations and 12F. I remembered complaining how small the units and felt this will only get smaller considering TDSR limiting the affordability and Land Pricing. So how this been going after more than a year ? Using site area to compute … Forest Woods : 150,712 sq ft / 519 units = 290 sq...

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Cory Diary : Astronomical Returns

I have been seeing astronomical returns from some forum recently. It easily get people attention. That’s what it does. But what’s matter at the end of the day is how much you truly made at specific time frame. Why I say that is because market goes up and down. And relative performance measures need to account for time frame with reasonable period length to allow for stability. STI Index STI with Dividends from 2009-2016 = 9% annual returns after cost. Let’s take a peak of some period after global financial crisis (GFC) based on STI. Since is reasonable not...

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Cory Diary : XIRR Performance – Q3 2016

The Market comes down a little on the last day of Sept. For the past few quarters I have been enjoying the bliss of cutting loss quicker and holding bull stocks longer. This is a rather fundamental change in my mental decision which takes a long time to overcome but necessary. So far, overall I have been right.Some of my actions I took is to clear LKH to focus on my portfolio better. I bought it this year in the hope there maybe some run up on property. It didn’t. A little gain from a small speculative position. Applied...

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Cory Diary : Calculating Return in Equity – Part 2

In this continuation of calculating equity return, let’s simulate a scenario that on certain years we have very good returns. And we feel rich that during that periods, mentally we think we can afford to lose. This can be at portfolio level or Individual Stock that we have grown to love. As the table above, I picked year 2009 and 2012 where Cory has strong gains and have them tweaked about 50% lower returns as we are less careful with money and that we have fallen into a tunnel vision of justifying more risk on just one or two...

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Cory Diary : Calculating Return in Equity

When I look across STI Index back 10 years there are 3 major down levels. If your investment have survived this three crisis give yourself 2 STARS.1. 2008 US – Sub Prime Financial Crisis 2. 2011 European – Greece Crisis 3. 2015 China – Stock Crisis When we start measuring our performance matters. Anyone who invest right after 2008 bottom will most likely survive well today especially for those who invest big. If you did big please give yourself 2 STARS. Using $100,000 Investment seed as if I am a Fund Manager, applied to my past 10 years performance....

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Cory Diary : Taiwan Housing and Pension System

In an ironical twist, Taiwan DPP (Green Party) recent elected president policies direction is moving towards what Singapore has been doing despite the blue camp is more “Pro” Singapore. Of the 5 Major reforms, two of them is deep in Singaporean heart. Constructing 200,000 units of social housing for lease to low-income citizens Taiwan problem isn’t just about wealth gap. The main issue is the low average salary. Wealth gap is only meaningful when the average ( or median) pay is high. Even if they have succeeded in distributing the wealth evenly, it only means everyone is poor. The average salary...

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Cory Diary : Cut Loss , Part Two

Has been holding this post in draft bucket for more than 2 weeks. Putting numbers to simulate scenarios on price going down trend. The figures are arbitrary. Is not meant to encourage anyone to cut loss on any particular stock. Is meant to educate myself on risk management.B – Buy , S – Sell Cutting loss at one go as in scenario 1 , 2 and 3 at different price points. Losses ballooned. How about staggered loss in Scenario 4. Almost Scenario 2 except you get to see $13 price range. Feeling Rich not to cut loss and instead...

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Cory Diary : Hyflux Preference Shares Part 2

Just as I have written recently on Hyflux Preference, they decided to play punk. Thanks to Swiber ! We have a lesson learned. Will the macro stock market get worst. I think it can, considering poor Singapore economic performance. But fixed returns are kind of “Protected under Lehman definition haha ” provided the firm continues to be alive.Before you read, I like to warn again. For those who see the world in “Black” and “White”, please ignore me … err I mean my article as is a lot of Estimation, Guess work and Intuition.  This mean you need to...

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Cory Diary : Cory Worth and Markets

Overview Net Worth slip back to mean growth after last year Chinese Market onslaught. China market went feverish which I anticipated it will fall as it does not matches with Xi anti-corruption drive. When the brick hits my chart still went for a dive and ended up with a lower gear of the continuum norm.We are now slightly a quarter period more before 2016 year finish and I hope we did not hit a brake like in 2015.  Roughly six months to come back up to the Pre-Crash level. Top left of the chart is the “Is” and “Is...

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Cory Diary : SEMBCORP MARINE LTD

I feel history today and do a quick study. Is like a review after a great battle. I am not vested in Oil and Shipping Industry directly but that doesn’t mean I should not read up on it. So whatever I find and understand is subjective and conclusion could be wrong. Started with an article from BT dated FEB 16, 2016. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/sembmarine-cosco-buffeted-by-s1-billion-in-combined-q4-losses “THE strain of low oil prices on the offshore and marine sector was in full display on Monday, as two heavily-exposed Singapore-listed companies reported a combined S$1 billion in fourth-quarter losses.” “The losses were partly the result of...

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Cory Diary : Misleading CAGR

Smoothed return It assumes a smoothed return over the period that’s measured. In reality, investments experience significant short-term ups and downs. Be careful when you are sold with 1 Year to 8 Years performance. On 7-8 years, there’s a low due to GFC that time in 2008 on crash and huge recovery. All monkeys able to perform. Fine ! Not all monkey just “99.5%”. Size of fund What this means is that a fund manager can work on multiple small funds, and then select the few that happens to wins over the measured period and present them to you....

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Cory Diary : Did DBS got SWIBER’ed

The Swiber collapse put a possible dent of $350 M into DBS after secured. Unsecured asset to me doesn’t mean no value, just much lesser especially during a poor market condition. Even then, I am surprise the total loan exposure is in the tune of $700 M. In my previous reading just 2 weeks ago on Q1 DBS result, it has a profit on $1.234 B. It has an allowance in the report of $170 M.If is a one-off thing, it could a good thing to buy on dip. However is it ? DBS has to put it whole segment...

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Cory Diary : Fascination with XIRR

XIRR is a feature use in Excel to measure rate of returns. Best for measuring irregular returns such as stock transactions. XIRR is also the formula we enter in Excel spreadsheet to measure investment performance in a compounded way.Just type in a single cell in the Excel “XIRR(” and a help note will appear “XIRR(Values,Dates,[guess])“. Values is the value of your trade transaction. Date is the day transacted. Typically we can ignore “[guess]”.Basically the we only need to care for “XIRR(Values,Dates)“. If you have weird answer, then “[guess]” needs to be use but this is rare and is due to...

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Cory Diary : Cutting Loss in Stock Market

Need to ask myself DEEPLY. Especially after cbox sessions this days ….When cutting loss, do I based on fundamental of the stock to decide, wait for good price that can hit or the price we enter ? Do we logically think Market will react to push up the price for us to sell or it works in a mysterious way that it will always fluctuate to our buy price for us to sell ? When have lots of cash, no cut loss. Use the money in the bank to buy more in new investment. Are there direct connection between...

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