TheFinance.sg » Createwealth8888

How much it cost to learn the reliability of Oversold indicator?

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 20 May 2012 08:17:00 +0000

Just For Thinking …

The truth is …

Low can be lower.

Oversold can remain oversold long enough that we are already broke!

I have paid for this expensive lesson in 2008 to believe in the reliability of Oversold indicator. The real low did come 4 months later in Mar 2009 after I gave up in 1 Nov 2008; by then I was almost broke!

Blame??? Pocket not deep enough???

Same as the failure of Long Term Capital. Pocket not deep enough??? Who has???

Olam: The day I sold this pillow stock!

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 20 May 2012 07:47:00 +0000

Read? More on Pillow Stocks strategy???

Flexibility is the hallmark of a successful long-term investor.

Fully sold is important even when it is FOC!.

Read? I have sold this pillow stock: Olam too

Read? Market news on Olam

The way Capital Group Companies, Inc. (“CGC”) was selling Olam shares made me nervous too. Sometime, it is better to regret then to be sorry. We have to observe BBs’ action in the market as they have direct access to the Mgmt and will definitely know their vested companies better. Small retail investors can only attend AGM and thinking that they will know much by asking a few questions here and there.

Portfolio riding market cycles of Bull and Bear

Createwealth8888 — Sat, 19 May 2012 05:57:00 +0000

How bad will the portfolio value fall this time?

STI down -8.2% from its recent peak at 3,026 in 65 days?

Where is STI’s Investor emotion in this cycle now?

Fear or depression???

45% of CPF members who made investments suffered losses

Createwealth8888 — Tue, 15 May 2012 20:13:00 +0000

Just For Thinking …

Createwealth8888: Before any newbies putting their CPF OA 2.5% almost risk free return at risks and thinking “long-term” investing will generate positive return. See the truth for yourself. It is best to leave your CPF OA investment fund alone until you can prove that you can consistently generate more than 2.5% return from your cash fund.

Read? Resident wants ban on CPF cash for investmentsRead? Better markets give CPF investors a lift

SINGAPORE: About 45 per cent of CPF
members who used their Ordinary Account savings to make investments from 1
October 2010 to 30 September 2011 suffered losses.
In his written reply
to parliament on Monday, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman
Shanmugaratnam said the investment performance could have been adversely
influenced by the volatility and overall decline of equity markets during this
period.Non-Constituency MP Lina Chiam had earlier …

If You Still Don’t Believe ILP is a Time Bomb? This time from the Horse’s mouth!

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 13 May 2012 15:09:00 +0000

Read? If You Still Don’t Believe ILP is a Time Bomb? One more experience shared

invest, thesundyatime May 13, 2012. Pg 40

Risks of ILPs

Mr Bradnon Lam, senior vice-president and head of consumer investment and insurance products at DBS Bank, explained that as ILPs feed into funds, depending on the structure, some may not provide guaranteed cash values. Oftentimes, the final cash value will depend on the value of the fund that ILPs feed into.

Mr Lam also cautioned that investors have to bear the entire investment risk of the funds they buy into, unlike traditional insurance such as whole life and endowment, in which the insurer bears the investment risk for guaranteed benefits portion.

The value of non-guaranteed benefits will depend on the performance of the insurer’s participating fund.

Insurance coverage rises with age. As regular premiums ILPs usually pay the insurance coverage charges by selling fund units, …

Does attending investment course really help?

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 13 May 2012 14:36:00 +0000

invest, May 13, 2012 thesundaytimes
me and my money section

This couple paid $2,800 each to attend investment course by a local Guru; but their best investment to date turned out to be their 16th-floor, 103 sq m resale four-room HDB in Paris Ris. Their worst investment to date is US stocks. So what is the moral of the story?

Does expensive investment course by Guru really help?

Some common sense investment knowledge is not difficult to gain from reading books, surfing the Internet and by Google.

Real experience in the stock market can only be gained by slowly getting your own hand dirty. I don’t think there is any short cut because the stock market is full of smart and savvy people who are trying to take our money too.

Do you ask your barber whether you need a hair-cut?

Createwealth8888 — Sat, 12 May 2012 22:08:00 +0000

Just For Laugh …

Major STI data points since 1990

STI is down only -4.7% from its recent high of 3,026. Technically, STI is not in the Bear market yet.

Recently, I have been receiving a few email from readers asking for advice like:

To cut loss now???
To average down at support levels???

These are two tough questions to answer. Why?

Read? Stop loss?

Read? Average down?

Do we ask our barber whether we need hair-cut?

Another question not so tough to answer. Is STI going down further???

See for yourself! The above table.

I can only help by showing you the STI past history of Peak to Low days. Currently, it is only 58 days from its recent peak of 3,026. More days to go?????

How many more days before STI will rebound back to the next peak?

Do you own intelligent guess by looking back at history?

…

Preservation of capital

Createwealth8888 — Thu, 03 May 2012 21:30:00 +0000

Just For Thinking ….

Preservation of capital

Many investors and traders will agree that preservation of capital is the foundation of successful investing or trading. How do we implement it?

Some will divest into bonds or preference shares
Some think of defensive yield stocks or income stocks
Some let the cash rotting in the bank

My strategy in preservation of capital is to take back my all investing capital and never mind if it is rotting in the bank while waiting for Mr. Bear to come. But, I will still let my profit runs in the market just in case Mr. Bear never come.

Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (34)

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 12:46:00 +0000

Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (33)

Taking risks, seeing opportunities and riding volatility

When we come to investing in the stock market, we can’t never avoid risks and volatility.

We may need to define our own personal risk in the stock market. Every retail investor’s personal definition of risk in the stock market may vary.

What is high risk to one retail investor may actually be low risk for another.retail investor. Risk in the stock market is very personal so we cannot anyhow imitate other retail investor’s investing method and strategies without relating back to our risk profile.

Uncle8888′s definition of his risk in the stock market

He defines his personal risk in the stock market as not losing part of his investing capital.

He will not risk more than 10% of his capital in any one stock no matter how attractive or “under-valued” that stock can be. …

Visually guided long-term investing goals! (2)

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 19:57:00 +0000

“The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark.” - Michelangelo

Read? Visually guided long-term investing goals!

Do read the above quote from Michelango again.

For their investing goals, some retail investors set to to beat inflation rate or even FD rate which is really low grade investing goal to achieve. Why not try setting higher investing goals and then seriously committed to them. It may open up your investing mind to explore your 3M’s – Method, Mind and Money to meet them.

In 2003, I set my aim high and falling short in 2011

Again in 2012, I have set the aim high; but will it fall short this time in 2021???

Visually guided long-term investing goals!

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 11:36:00 +0000

Just For Thinking …

Track, measure and Visualize!!!

When I go for regular jog along Punggol Promenade and Punggol Waterway, I do it “naked”

without musical to my ears along the long and boring kilometres ahead. I depend on distance visually sighted milestones and distance marking along the track to tell me how much slog to go.

Likewise, in my long-term investing, I use charts, graphs, and absolute numbers to visually tell me how am I doing? How far more to go before I can rest my tired feet?

Sometime, I realize that these hours of slogging is never a fun thing to do whenever I jog past that Pub along Punggol Promenade looking up and seeing some people happily drinking cold beer.

Visually guided investing goals

You may not realize the power of visually guided long-term investing goals until you actually visualize it while updating your portfolio. It may be like long-distance “naked” jogging, when the …

Kep Corp’s dividend history

Createwealth8888 — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 20:45:00 +0000

Net profit improved 141% to S$751 million, compared to 1Q 2011′s S$312 million. Lumpy net profit due to recognition of earnings from homes sold under deferred payment scheme at Reflections at Keppel Bay.

Looking at Kep Corp’s past record of returning excess cash back to shareholders, I will not be surprised at receiving special dividend in 2012 for rewarding loyal shareholders for their years of patience waiting for this deferred payment from Reflections at Keppel Bay!

Kep Corp 1Q 2012 Report Card

Createwealth8888 — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 19:36:00 +0000

1. Net profit improved 141% to S$751 million, compared to 1Q 2011′s S$312 million. Lumpy net profit due to recognition of earnings from homes sold under deferred payment scheme at Reflections at Keppel Bay.

2. Earnings Per Share of 41.9 cents, up 138% from 1Q 2011′s 17.6 cents.

3. Annualised ROE of 21.6%.

4. Economic Value Added of S$654 million.

5. Cash outflow of S$193 million.

6. Net gearing remains at 0.16x.

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s Keppel Corp Ltd, the world’s largest rig-builder, reported on Thursday a forecast-beating 141 per cent rise in its first quarter net profit, helped by a jump in earnings from its property division.

The company posted a net profit of S$750.8 million (US$600.6 million) for the three month ended March 31, two-and-a-half-times the S$311.5 million recorded a year ago.

The profit was ahead of the average forecast of S$359….

Track, Measure, and Visualize performance!

Createwealth8888 — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 07:44:00 +0000

Read? XIRR/CAGR: Investor’s true performance indicator! (6)

Read? How to know when I am wrong? (2)

How do I know is my current trading or investing strategy still working for me?

Simple. I track, measure, and visualise my performance.

I only started serious and diligent tracking and measuring from Jan 2003 onwards.

From Jan 2003 till Mar 2012, those months that P/L that is in Red!:

Feb 2005
Aug 2007
Jan 2008 Bloody Red!!!
Aug 2008 Bloody Red!!!
Sep 2008 Shit Red!
Oct 2008 Bloody Red!!!

As of now, 2008 is the only year that I was in Red!

What did I do in Nov 2008?

I QUIT active Contra trading till now!!!

I also stopped monthly review and switch to quarterly review and meeting yearly goal instead of meeting monthly target prior to Nov 2008.

We set our review period and evaluate our performance against our investing goals over our …

What was I thinking and feeling in Mar 2009 Bear market low? (3)

Createwealth8888 — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 08:13:00 +0000

Just For Thinking …

Read? What was I thinking and feeling in Mar 2009 Bear market low? (2)

Did you read this ad in the newspaper?

“Profits of US$6,179 ….. Thanks GURUxxxx, I can now use your methods to achieve financial freedom.”

Yes. It is most likely to be true; but for how long??? It is not that moment or period that counts. It is sustainability and consistency over market cycles that really define your success in investing or trading.

Back to what I was thinking from Mar 2009 to early 2010 …

Honeymoon in the stock market

From Mar 2009 onwards till early 2010; it is the honeymoon period in the stock market where newBEEs can easily find Cheese and thinking that they can now use their new found knowledge and skills in trading or investing to achieve financial freedom.

This is what I witnessed and even amazed when …

What was I thinking and feeling in Mar 2009 Bear market low? (2)

Createwealth8888 — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:59:00 +0000

Read? What was I thinking and feeling in Mar 2009 Bear market low?

Were you among those waiting for STI 1,200 at Mar 2009 with plenty of cash for opportunity?

No one can know where is the market low including your favourite and world-renowned Gurus whom you follow God-like in every word that comes out from their mouth.

There are two types of Gurus in the market:

They made money by conducting courses, seminars, workshops, talks, discussions in their forums and writing newsletters. They will give plenty of views on the market. When they are right; they will boast until they drop their pants. When they are wrong, hardly anyone will still remember what they have said.
They are BBs in the market eating up our lunches and dinners by talking up or down the market after they may taken up large positions by becoming Talking Heads!!!

Createwealth8888 till today can still remember clearly …

What was I thinking and feeling in Mar 2009 Bear market low?

Createwealth8888 — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 19:06:00 +0000

We like to think that shorting in the Bear market will win big money. Is that really so?

Saturday, 28 March 2009, I wrote this post:

One honest Guru said that (but still many gurus are not telling us much about their losses in shorting the market), he gave back most of his profits built up from the last plunge.

This Guru was not any ordinary trader but the Chief Trainer and Strategist in one of the Kung Fu School of Trading in Singapore hor.

14 Apr 2012 Createwealth8888′s comments: This Guru continued to lose money despites he was one of those Kung Fu masters training many dsiciples to fight bulls and bears. Few months later the Guru also stopped blogging. Why did he stop blogging??? We can do our own thinking. LOL!

On Friday, 27 March 2009, I wrote this …

To observe due diligence, observe yourself first.

Createwealth8888 — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 08:30:00 +0000

For retail investors, due diligence is about understanding themselves and how an investment product fits in with their life goals, investment horizons and risk profiles

Createwealth8888′s comments: How many retail investors seriously do due diligence and put the risks of losing large capital before dreaming of huge rewards.

Generally, the nearer an investor is to retirement, the lower his risk profile should be. In other words, as a rule of thumb, investors should concentrate on making their money work harder for them during their younger years, and on protecting their investment gains as they approach retirement age.

Gerald Foo
Chief Operating Officer
Walton International Group (S) Pte Ltd

RECENTLY, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced new measures to safeguard inexperienced retail investors from buying certain types of investments without knowing what they are buying into.

Since January, banks and other financial institutions have been assessing customers’ financial knowledge and …